Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Not to mention all the ministerial positions.
by Darn on May 13, 2012 at 11:02 am
Dave Oliver just used the Green argument about job creation as a result of the carbon price. Hammering home the US is going to exploit that green energy job creation.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 11:02 am
Anyone has a vudeo link to the Windsor interview?
by adam abdool on May 13, 2012 at 11:02 am
Now that Shorten has come clean with the rumour about him. When will Abbott comes clean #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 13, 2012 at 11:03 am
tlbd and vic
Don’t worry about it too much. It could, as I pointed out, be a load of old bollocks.
by Dan Gulberry on May 13, 2012 at 11:03 am
An position in parliament could be , an member on either side could be the attack dog, aka pyne calling suspension of standing orders etc, or albanese who normally responds to them
by Meguire Bob on May 13, 2012 at 11:03 am
They could resign as the attack dog
by Meguire Bob on May 13, 2012 at 11:04 am
fess
I got it from Gus, who got it from “sources”. I don’t know any more about its origins.
by Dan Gulberry on May 13, 2012 at 11:04 am
If Slipper becomes an ordinary MP again there’s no way he’ll vote with the opposition. After what has happened I’m sure he hates their guts. Abbott has spent much of the past few weeks telling anyone who’ll listen that he has been trying to get Slipper out of the parliament. That’s not the way to make friends and influence people.
by Darn on May 13, 2012 at 11:06 am
Who’s worrying? I have some popcorn handy.
by This little black duck on May 13, 2012 at 11:07 am
DG
As i said, i have my own theories on what may transpire in the next few weeks. Without knowing what you have, i cant have an opinion.
For me, i reflect back on the Easter break and all the people who met up.
Brough, Hockey, Rudd, Palmer. Pyne and JBishop with Ashby. There is something behind all this.
Seems what you have is in a different direction
by victoria on May 13, 2012 at 11:07 am
aa:
You’ll probably find it here sometime today or tomorrow:
http://www.skynews.com.au/video/
by confessions on May 13, 2012 at 11:08 am
Hahahahahaha
Oh the hypocrisy!
Now the opposition is saying that Mr Thomson will ‘exploit’ the opportunity to address parliament.
Who wanted this? Who forced it on Mr Thomson? Who wanted the chocolate that turned out to be a Laxette?
Or as they may be saying in the Coalition caucus, “Whose ffn bright idea was this??
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 13, 2012 at 11:08 am
Puff
I said that the govt wargamed this, and are two steps ahead of the coalition buffoons
by victoria on May 13, 2012 at 11:09 am
Thanks DG. We will see what transpires.
by confessions on May 13, 2012 at 11:09 am
an member of the opposition on the front bench , is more important then a bench bencher
an member of the opposition front bencher could have resigned
by Meguire Bob on May 13, 2012 at 11:10 am
back bencher i should say
by Meguire Bob on May 13, 2012 at 11:10 am
The strangest political event last week was Kroger all out attack on Costello just after Abbott’s #BudgetReply. Notice timing, why? #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 13, 2012 at 11:11 am
Darn he might if the tactic was to wedge Abbott over the Thomson vote. It’s just one more conspiracy theory
by davidwh on May 13, 2012 at 11:12 am
When in government the Liberals ran a taxpayer-funded dirt unit. So they run with dirt all the time: whether in power or wanting to get into power. It stands to reason that smearing is in their nature. I mean, look at the ‘product’ they’re trying to foist on the public: Looking after billionaires and transnationals, attacking ‘average’ Australians with WorkChoices, coming down hard on the poor and defenceless, demolishing national infrastructure projects.
All things being equal the ‘market’ (ie vote support) for such a destructive, contrary platform would be small, not enough to win government. So to compensate they use smear and fear, dogwhistling, spin, endless slogans, lies, personal attacks, and all the rest of the tricks from the Handbook of Dirty Politics. Then their efforts are amplified out of all proportion by a ethics-free mainstream media – bringing us to the situation in which we now find ourselves: A good and competent government with a successful legislative agenda, being trashed and written off over a year out from an election.
by Cuppa on May 13, 2012 at 11:13 am
Thanks, confessions.
by adam abdool on May 13, 2012 at 11:13 am
Puffy,
Careful waht you ask for. You just might get it.
by Greensborough Growler on May 13, 2012 at 11:13 am
I went through a bad patch back in 2008 where I got caught three times by speed cameras in one month (low range infractions all) and racked up a “sudden-death” 9 points… one more speeding offence and I’d lost my licence.
I was pissed off at the “revenue raising” etc. etc., but was forced to drive very carefully for the next three years, until the points started coming off. It was a long three years (especially for Her Indoors, who has a special set of X-Ray eyes that bore into the side of your head when you’re doing something she regards as stupid while driving… you can feel your temples go warm).
But after a while I realized that, fair or not, I was driving more safely. Since the points came off (now have a nice “ZERO” on my tally), I’ve continued driving carefully.
I NEVER go through red lights, either, as a friend of ours was killed a couple of years ago when a young boy ran a red on Pennant Hills Rd. and ended her life with fatal whiplash: he did relatively little damage to her car, hit it on the passenger side as she was turning, but with such force that he tumbled over four times, ended up 70 metres down the road and snapped her neck like it was a matchstick. She was dead before her car came to a halt. She was 21 years old, one of our neighbour’s kids.
There is a camera at that intersection now, both directions, and I get a large dose of schadenfreude every time I see the flash go off as another mug is caught by one of the “Safety Cameras” there.
Speed and red-light cameras DO save lives. That’s my attitude now, and I’m sticking to it. Sure, they raise revenue too, and that’s alright with me as well. That terrible fright I got when I was on “sudden death”, 9 points, sobered me up for life. Pity it didn’t save Kate’s.
On a brighter note… it’s nice to see that Barry O”Farrell is copping some stick from the DT over it. Welcome to the world of “hard decisions” Barry.
On an even brighter note, it seems O’farrell’s Attorney-General, Greg Smith is about to appoint an Inspector General of Prisons. This will piss off Ray Hadley, whose mate, Corrective Services Supremo, Ron Woodham runs Prisons in NSW.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-26/search-begins-for-new-nsw-prisons-boss/3973174/default.htm?site=newcastle
Ray Hadley doesn’t want “cultural change”. Ron Woodham, being an old “through the ranks” rubber-hose kinda guy, is being protected by Hadley, who wants Greg Smith’s head on a platter. O’Farrell comes in for a lot of stick too, as O’Farrell could have sacked Smith, according to Hadley.
Why the DT wants O’Farrell gone is anybody’s guess. Probably something to do with the religious right of the Liberal Party. It’s well-known that O’Farrell was NOT their choice of Premier.
by Bushfire Bill on May 13, 2012 at 11:17 am
Interesting to hear it brought up by Louise Mensch the Second, Melissa Clarke, that Michael Williamson of the HSU has confirmed that prostitutes have been used by the Union movement in the past to set up fellow Unionists.
It’s like a volcano under Capitol Hill is starting to spew up ash and demons from the bowels of our democratic government in Canberra, via arteries of poisonous lava being fed into the core.
Will they be able to contain it and put a cap on it all again, or will we see Vesuvius?
by C@tmomma on May 13, 2012 at 11:18 am
Dan @ 2308
Don’t be a tease! More clues?
by clements steve on May 13, 2012 at 11:18 am
GG
yep
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 13, 2012 at 11:19 am
Pretty clearly they didn’t think Thomson would front. I love the smell of blowback in the morning.
Kathy Jackson will be shitting herself.
by Bushfire Bill on May 13, 2012 at 11:20 am
Oh. in case I’ve confused others, had problems with logging on, had to re-register. Previously “Super”.
Will try and fix.
by clements steve on May 13, 2012 at 11:21 am
PvO pulls aside the curtain on Crimestoppers in NSW. Who knew it was a private company?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-crime-stoppers-should-ring-alarm-bells/story-e6frezz0-1226347575319
by lizzie on May 13, 2012 at 11:21 am
vic
I agree the number of LNP “heavyweights” who are implicated in Ashbygate is very suspicious, and I believe there is much more to come on this. At this stage, the whole affair looks very bad for those involved.
This affair may also have implications for, or be somewhat connected to the other rumour as well. We don’t know yet.
by Dan Gulberry on May 13, 2012 at 11:22 am
Deblonay and others
Here is my suggestion for a sensible way to move gradually towards PR. I would also advise the ALP and Greens to get this in place BEFORE the next election.
It would work like this
1. Increase the Senate by one in each state per election. This would raise the senate numbers by 12 and the HoR by 24/25.
2. While a small no of the additional HoR seats could be used for single member electorates, as least 20 would be reserved for a PR top up. Possibly 2-5 could be reserved for individual candidates (or independents) who scored very highly on first preferences, but did not get elected (ie allows strong independents to get a spot)
3. The way the top up would work would be that each party would work towards electing single members just as we do now.
4. The PR seats would be allocated to the party which has the largest discrepancy between their actual number of seats received and the total in the house. For example If the Greens get 10% of the votes but just 1/150 seats then they are 14 short of the numbers due to them and would get roughly 14 additional seats form the pool. Labor next election might get 35% of the primary votes and should it not get at least 52 seats then it too might score a few. Katter’s party may get a couple as might family first. If in Qld this year Labor would have at least 20-25 members, rather than their tragic 7)
5. To ensure that the positions are not just factional hacks, the rule should be that whatever (say Green) got the highest NUMBER of primary votes for their party, but did not win would be the first elected. This gives every candidate the incentive to work as hard as possible, and also rather removes the ability of ALP and other parties to appoint factional hacks (unless they are also bloody good campaigners). (However maybe each party could nominate the first 3 – so that high profile losers could still get in)
6. To prevent an excessive introduction of minor parties, the 20-25 seats should be distributed by region or states. My own preference would be for 6 broad regions of 25 electorates with some sort of affinity (but this is a minor tweak to the concept) – But would secure Katter support in the HoR
A Mining regions WA , NT and Northern Qld
B Rest of Qld,
C Sydney and environs,
D Regional NSW,
E Melbourne and surrounds
F Tas, SA and rest of regional Victoria
7. This approach would protect the ALP but gives the Greens fair representation. It allows minor parties with real popularity to flourish but retains the essential “local” idea with which we are familiar
8. The biggest issue in selling the policy would be the public whinge about extra costs. This is not really an issue except in PR terms, but it might be necessary to have a salary differential (and staff allowances) – just to help sell the idea. Personally I think the extra costs trivial but the public does not always agree.
Labor, Green apparatchiks – It is NOW or never for PR. You would need to make it very attractive to the independents so may need some tweaking for an acceptable package. Labor people. On current polling PR just might be your lifeline.
by daretotread on May 13, 2012 at 11:26 am
C@tmomma,
by The Finnigans on May 13, 2012 at 11:26 am
Darn @ 2358
Joe was asked a similar hypothetical on Friday by Neil Mitchell. Would Coalition accept Thomson vote in co-confidence motion? Of course they would (even if ‘tainted’), but Hockey refused to answer, even when repeatedly asked.
by clements steve on May 13, 2012 at 11:26 am
DG
Maybe its Puff Adder that will resign. It would explain why she did not care about her public image making people wait on that regional flight.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 11:28 am
Bushfire Bill@2372,
The only reason Ron Woodham is going from Corrective Services is because he is seriously ill. Linda Mottram interviewed head of Prison Guards Union who said Ron wanted to stay to implement his latest plans with the new government but, well, OK, maybe there was a bit of sharp elbows from Greg Smith and Barry O’Farrell, he is not well enough to carry on with it. Expect the new guy to probably come from the Northern Territory, where he was sent from NSW to get some experience running a Prisons department a few years ago.
Still, that’s Ray Hadley 0, Barry O’Farrell/Greg Smith 1.
by C@tmomma on May 13, 2012 at 11:28 am
Finns @ 2367
Easy. Very effectively took heat off Oppn re Budget reply and Ashby saga. Portrayed as a lovers’ tiff
by clements steve on May 13, 2012 at 11:29 am
interesting final observation by Laura Tingle on Insiders re Ashby having to submit formal paperwork to the court this week leading up to the initial hearing – will it have more detail???
by womble on May 13, 2012 at 11:31 am
Don’t you just love being in the Peanut Gallery of Australian politics?
by C@tmomma on May 13, 2012 at 11:31 am
guytaur
From what I’ve heard PA doesn’t care about her public image anyway. There have been lots of stories about her barging ahead of people in queues, and throwing her weight around (metaphorically speaking).
by Dan Gulberry on May 13, 2012 at 11:32 am
womble@2382,
Would love to know the comings and goings and phone contacts to/from Ashby over the next week. Still, The Invisible Man has nothing on James Hunter Ashby.
by C@tmomma on May 13, 2012 at 11:34 am
DG
Oh well there goes a theory blown out the water.
On a brighter note in the UK some indications of a change in polling.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/13/liberal-democrat-labour-ed-miliband
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 11:35 am
womble,
The Ashby case starts next Friday. There is much preparatory paperwork that needs to be submitted by Ashby.
by Greensborough Growler on May 13, 2012 at 11:35 am
PvO’s hypocrisy is a legend:
If a mere arrest doesn’t solve any crimes, what does a drive-by allegation of Cab Charge fraud and homosexual harassment from a notoriously unhinged and well-circulated 33 year old homosexual ex-staffer achieve?
(See? It’s easy to put things in a “bad” light).
Craig Thomson might like to enjoy some due process too, something that PvO and his mates don’t seem to think either Slipper or Thommo require.
Sounds like PvO has a friend who’s been collared by Crime Stoppers. Why else would he Golden Boy abandon his usual Bash Gillard schtik and go after a state-based crime reporting bureau?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-crime-stoppers-should-ring-alarm-bells/story-e6frezz0-1226347575319
by Bushfire Bill on May 13, 2012 at 11:36 am
Dan
one of my favorites was when she was leaving a local school. In full sight of all the mums, she reversed into one car, then accelerated forward and hit the one in front.
Then drove off…
by zoomster on May 13, 2012 at 11:37 am
Labor’s argument right there.
by Gary on May 13, 2012 at 11:38 am
zoomster
That is appalling!!
by victoria on May 13, 2012 at 11:46 am
Oh, I’m sure she paid for the damage!
by zoomster on May 13, 2012 at 11:47 am
by victoria on May 13, 2012 at 11:47 am
zoomster
I’d heard that one before as well. In fact, I probably read about it on PB. I hope the victims of that had their repairs paid for by PA, and not taxpayers or an elderly dementia sufferer.
by Dan Gulberry on May 13, 2012 at 11:47 am
Bushfire
My read of PvO was that he had been falsely accused by someone to CrimeStoppers twice, police investigated and there was no case to answer.
I thought it had extremely interesting parallels with Ashby!
by lizzie on May 13, 2012 at 11:48 am