Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bemused
I did not find that crazy at all. Dr Alex Wodjack advocated for and got it from then Premier Carr for very good reason. It was a public health measure. Safe injecting is like safe sex. It prevents the spread of HIV/AIDS. In the case of injecting it also stops the spread of Hep C.
That just by itself has saved lives and the public purse millions from the public health system.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Guytaur – if someone has a mortgage and doesn’t make their payments the lender can take the house
if a country doesn’t pay theirs there isn’t anything to take
would make for interesting times
by womble on May 13, 2012 at 4:37 pm
kin’s points out – we’re looking at just over 12 months. time flies, 3rd quarter 2013 is now 16-17 months tops womble posted
Why november 2013
At earliest
Dont u live the gloom and dooom merchants,
The tas. Premier, supports lyn thorpe. U have to know the history of things, to understand
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 4:40 pm
http://yfrog.com/meh0g7j front page
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2012/may/12/schools-face-talent-drain
Trouble in the UK education system
by Leroy on May 13, 2012 at 4:40 pm
PTMD @ 2549
Seems like just aiding and abetting the crims to me.
Need to go the whole hog and get supply out of their hands to break the problem.
Noting is as safe as supply by prescription of drugs of know purity administered by a Dr or Practice Nurse.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Puff @ 2536
This discussion has been had before on PB, maybe many times but there is already a medical approach to drug addiction. It’s recognised as a mental problem, and results often in further mental issues. Rehab and methadone programs, and other support mechanisms don’t have a 100% success rate. Similarly preventing drug taking and its path to addiction, (including taking cannabis as Bemused rightly pointed out), by law enforcement doesn’t have a 100% success rate. It’s unlikely that legalising some or all drugs will prevent 100% of the crime gangs involvement let alone reduce drug taking and addiction. And before people start quoting Netherlands and Portugal and Sweden, there are conflicting reports and a lot of second thoughts. I don’t know the answer but Guytaur had the problem solved in a sentence or two earlier so he/she should be in charge.
by Mick77 on May 13, 2012 at 4:40 pm
guytaur @ 2550
A dumb idea for the reasons mentioned in my other posts.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 4:41 pm
womble
This is not new. It has happened before. South America is the signpost of the path to taken about this.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Another downside of the drug problem is that a lot of highly effective medicines are no longer available because they contained a small quantity of opiates.
I strongly object to the public being ‘punished’ in this way because of an obsessive and ineffective approach to drugs in society.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 4:45 pm
bemused
Preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS and Hep C is a dumb idea? Not in my worldview.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Mick77
Change has to come on drugs. We have had 30 years of failure with the law enforcement approach. Put into place by then President Richard Millhouse NIxon.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Mick77
Nothing will reduce criminal gangs by 100%. But I see no reason to give their businesses protection through the current drug laws. The USA drug laws have destroyed Mexico.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 13, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Rex Douglas,
Cloud Cuckoo Land stuff, Noalition style.
by This little black duck on May 13, 2012 at 4:48 pm
My Say – the last election was held on the 21st of August 2010 – i’d expect the next one to be around then next year. Add to that, the independents agreement is that election be held in the 3rd quarter
There is no way it’ll be the end of November
Guytaur – i’ll have to have a look and see what happened to Argentina when I get a chance
by womble on May 13, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Like?
Before you answer remember I ma on prescription opiates.
by ruawake on May 13, 2012 at 4:50 pm
{
{2557
womble
This is not new. It has happened before. South America is the signpost of the path to taken about this.}
Argentina , i think some years ago
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 4:50 pm
guytaur @ 2559
So how does medically supplied drugs injected by a health professional spread HIV/AIDS and Hep C?
Why are criminal supplied drugs mixed with who knows what contaminants but injected under supervision a superior idea?
I really do wish you would improve your comprehension skills.
No wonder you are a Green!
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 4:50 pm
womble
Argentina went into free fall. Resulting in dictatorship. “Don’t Cry for me Argentina” springs into my mind. Eventually Argentina overcomes the dictatorship and starts trading back into a better place. Of course the same happened with Brazil and is that country is now seen as being a bit of a powerhouse economically.
I think Europe will go through similar economic movements. Hopefully not losing democracy in the process.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:51 pm
And until you get this perfect system, where addiction is decriminalised and treated as a medica rather than a criminal issue…what? We have no safe injecting rooms and just send the tumbrils around Kings Cross collecting the bodies of dead addicts with needles in their arms from the gutters?
by smithe on May 13, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Sorry womble
I have read from oters more knolefgable than i
also no one in their right mibd would hold an election. Towards te end of footy finals
I know it was aug, 2010
But at tne time i thought it was foolish, wibter and all that
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 4:53 pm
More knowledgeable than i
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 4:53 pm
TLBD,
The current Noalition style has clearly gained the approval of the majority who can’t see through their big con. That trend is clear.
The mindset of that majority has to be altered/shifted.
by Rex Douglas on May 13, 2012 at 4:54 pm
ruawake @ 2564
I am referring to some over the counter stuff.
Some I recall are Sednine cough mixture and Chlordene for upset stomach.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 4:54 pm
bemused
The injecting drug room stopped the sharing of needles and overdoses. I agree with you on the criminals but politically that was not going to happen. By having an injecting drug room and ensuring clean needles and preventing overdoses the injecting room contributed to the prevention of the above diseases and certainly reduced overdose deaths.
So that is better than unsupervised injection. It is called harm reduction for a reason.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Ru,
Yes me to sometimes,
Mainly methotrexate these days
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 4:55 pm
bemused
Downside ? More like utter fecking stupidity. Ban heroin from being used for pain relief for terminal cancer patients because they may become addicted !!!! Scumbag stupid Americans who enforced this policy on the rest of the world.
by poroti on May 13, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Of course Gillard will go as late as possible, or at least as late as required to get into a winning position. That is what the opposition fears most.
The lived experience of the next 16-17 months will be very different from the Coalition predictions of doom. That will make their words sound even more hollow than now. Add to that the fact Abbott is running a Big Target strategy. He might be small target on the details, but that is a distinct disadvantage when he’s a Huge target on the repealing the Carbon Pricing, MRRT, and nobbling the NBN. Having no details then will just allow Labor to make merry with a scare campaign about how much money is coming out of each voter’s pockets.
The entire Abbott strategy is predicated on getting the minority government to fall over early before the goodies have had a chance to register. He’s looking sweet if he can get it to fall over probably any time this year, but once we get deep into 2013 his plan A becomes a huge liability and he’s going to have to perform some wonderous backflips to ditch the big ticket items he’s running on and craft a small target plan B.
by ratsak on May 13, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Puff & Guytaur
Drugs are a very serious subject and I don’t mean to be cynical but really there are no easy fixes, partly because the “problem” is in fact a multitude of problems. You press “here” and something pops out “there” and legalising has unforeseen consequences. I am certainly against unenforceable laws. If you have a law on the books then enforce it. The war against drugs MAYBE could be won with true resolve. If we were prepared to go to war over weapons of mass destruction in the hands of fanatics then similar resources dedicated to a war on drugs may be warranted since they threaten society to no less a degree.
by Mick77 on May 13, 2012 at 4:59 pm
bemused
The two legacies that Bob Carr can be proud of as Premier in my eyes are his environmental and health policies. Progressive in both. Saving environment and lives.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 4:59 pm
my say
.
When it comes to Opiate production you come from the world’s largest producer,Tasmania…………..legal ones that is
by poroti on May 13, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Mick77
Prohibition fails. We know this. We know the effects it has. Boardwalk Empire the series is about all of that. Then it was alcohol. Now it is opiates. etc.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Also i would be interested to know how mr harkins could save us from abbott, re unions
Nothing would save us, from this tory lot
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 5:03 pm
As usual you resort to abuse as soon as you are on the wRONg end of a discussion.
Nasty arrogant little man.
by muttleymcgee on May 13, 2012 at 5:04 pm
the 2nd term of labor didnt start til september , when the independents made their decision
September/october/November likely months
by Meguire Bob on May 13, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Bemused
Codeine is a schedule 3 drug and is available in over the counter medications. Except one form of Codral I think, which may be sold in supermarkets.
Heroin is not a very good opiate analgesic, there are much better ones with less euphoria and greater blocking of opiate receptors.
I am addicted to synthetic morphine, 3 doctors discussed by case before I proceeded. So the heroin addiction crud was always a furphy.
by ruawake on May 13, 2012 at 5:05 pm
smithe @ 2568
Exaggeration for effect.
The doctors premises are in place and widely distributed unlike the Kings Cross safe injecting room.
Just needs some changes in law and setting up of supply arrangements.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 5:05 pm
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 5:05 pm
ted Sunday, May 13, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink
Of course Gillard will go as late as possible, or at least as late as required to get into a winning position. That is what the opposition fears most.
The lived experience of the next 16-17 months will be very different from the Coalition
Ratsack, i agree
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 5:06 pm
smithe
I hate to say this, but I don’t think the concocted gossip has ended. The Fibs know that a scandal isn’t a scandal unless sex is involved. Who would care what Craig Thomson did with tha HSU credit card if prostitutes weren’t involved? Who would care about a gay staffer in Slipper’s office getting the huffs if sex wasn’t involved? Who would get angry about a politician’s alleged marital problems if there wasn’t an allegedly pregnant staffer lurking in the background?
Remember, there are a few Coalition MPs being investigated at the moment, but as sex is not involved none of it gets a mention.
Sex gets the msm onto the dirt straight away and gets huge headlines. Allegations of hanky-panky send the journos, shock jocks, gossips, emailers and tweeters into a feeding frenzy. Who cares if it’s not true? Once it has been said it’s out there for ever and won’t go away. If there is no genuine mud to be slung then the Fibs will just make some up.
There will be more dirt flying about whenever the Fibs need a distraction from a successful government action or just one of their own coming to grief. It’s no use alleging that a Labor MP has failed to do some financial paperwork or has rorted their allowances or has been booked for drink driving. It’s just too easy to find a Coaliton MP who has done exactly the same thing. So there has to be a sex angle, the more lurid the better.
Joe Hockey takes the award for Biggest Hypocrite of the Year with these remarks on the Shorten thing-
If only he would take his own advice and focus on us, not on concocted scandals.
by leone on May 13, 2012 at 5:06 pm
muttley
It is only abuse if you are offended by being called green. I am not.
Of course to a Liberal like bemused it probably is abuse.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 5:07 pm
October big car racing, events
by my say on May 13, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Guytaur @ 2580
Prohibition of alcohol “failed” but whether every form of prohibition at every time in every environment “fails” is not axiomatic. And again failure is relative to the alternatives. I think that many prohibitions in our society do work, again not 100%, and to remove those prohibitions invites unintended consequences. There is also a difference between prohibiting something that was previously permitted, and permitting something that was previously prohibited. You’d want to know what you’re doing in both cases.
by Mick77 on May 13, 2012 at 5:09 pm
ABC95 is linking the PM‘s willingness to discuss new parliamentary standards to Craig Thomson’s “behaviour”. They seem not to be aware that she may be thinking about question time.
by This little black duck on May 13, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Mick77 @ 2577
When did that happen? Did I miss something?
On drugs, I see no problem going after criminal suppliers of illicit substances while treating their victims (addicts) as a purely medical issue.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Mick77
30 years we have tried it the same way. It is time to change. Repeating a behaviour and expecting a different result has been described as the definition of insanity.
by guytaur on May 13, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Poor NSW. What a team, picked on reputation not ability.
by ruawake on May 13, 2012 at 5:13 pm
muttleymcgee @ 2582
If that is abuse then you really have led a sheltered life and have ignored a lot on PB.
It was merely some of the ongoing banter between Greens and ALP members/supporters on PB. There was an emoticon as a clue for those, such as you, who might have needed it.
And I am not on the wrong side of this discussion.
by bemused on May 13, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Who is Senator Scott Ryan of the Liberal who has been fingered by Gobbo on a letter scandal?
by John Ryan on May 13, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Booze and cigs have caused far more deaths and done far more harm than hash ever has or ever will. When the directors of CUB are put to death, your comment will have some merit.
by fredn on May 13, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Guytaur
I wouldn’t risk decriminalisation. Let’s try enforcing the current laws first. I bet there are far far less drug problems in Singapore than here because of tough enforcement and tough penalties. It’s not a perfect solution and Oz is not Singapore thank goodness but it does illustrate that resolve to enforce laws can have an effect. In fact it’s happening here as well. A lot of drugs get through but a lot of shipments get stopped.
by Mick77 on May 13, 2012 at 5:21 pm