Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Victoria
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 9:10 am
janice2
Wise words.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:10 am
I love janices box,
Why open it, and let pandora out ,,,
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 9:11 am
DL
I am not suggesting Thomson did not misuse union money. The FWA report indicates that he did. He says the report is wrong. He is entitled to state his case. Kathy jackson in the meantime, should stfu!
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:12 am
why arent there more like Mega around. We really need the voice of reason
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:15 am
Poor TP doesn’t know difference between full and half moon, but guess he and others prefer the dark small hours to come out and comment?
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:15 am
confessionsobsessions @ 3089I don’t.
He was mentioned by others as if he was a Liberal of some significance and I agreed. So former Leader in the Senate is of no significance?
So Note what I said:
1. I usually disagreed with Minchin
2. On his side of politics he is substantial.
Well, not a lot of competition I suppose and all things are relative.
I am getting concerned about your health.
by bemused on May 14, 2012 at 9:17 am
The media attention around Thomson may be more intense because of the state of the parties however it is not much different than the media attention around various people during the AWB matter or even the attention around the Murdoch’s at present. Assumptions and allegations are put out in the media in the absence of formal charges.
It seems uglier at present but that is simply due to votes in the parliament.
Having said that I think Abbott and other Liberals should back off and wait until the investigations run their course.
by davidwh on May 14, 2012 at 9:18 am
[lizzie
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 8:51 am | Permalink
Says they should address broadband blackspots instead.
NATIONALS Member for Cowper and Shadow Minister for Regional Communications, Luke Hartsuyker, has panned Federal Government plans to spend $20 million on advertising the National Broadband Network.
He termed the advertising spend "a propaganda campaign" after Tuesday's Budget included the figure to 'improve public understanding, address misconceptions and provide updated information about the National Broadband Network.'
An example of the advertising being used appeared on page 32 of The Coffs Coast Advocate yesterday under the heading 'The National Broadband Network is improving access to healthcare around Australia.'
"This $20 million is not for an information campaign, it's for a political campaign," Mr Hartsuyker said.
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2012/05/13/hartsuyker-attacks-nbn-ad-campaign/
You means my beloved Pruneface is complaining, he was also complaining the NBN was’t going to LNP electorates
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:19 am
bemused
I have not been following your stoush with confessions. Not sure what quoting finns and I is about. Just in case there is any confusion about my opinion on Minchin. He is a control freak. He obviously sees some cracks in the coalition and he is weighing in. Not for one second, Do I think anything more about him. He is a partisan hack.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:19 am
davidwh
Thomson is giving a lengthy statement in Parliament next week. The coalition asked for it and now they are getting it. In the meantime, they should shut up indeed.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:21 am
Excellent article on “class war”, Abbott and The Australian.
http://theconversation.edu.au/class-warfare-in-australia-we-should-be-so-lucky-6970?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+conversationedu+%28The+Conversation%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:23 am
mari
You are so fortunate to have pruneface as your MP.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:23 am
TLM is on the top of my scroll by list. Keep moving nothing to see here.
by retiredleftie on May 14, 2012 at 9:24 am
GG, that’s a ripper article
by The Finnigans on May 14, 2012 at 9:24 am
lizzie
Someone on twtiter said that the govt should drop the North shore reference and focus on Abbott voting against the school bonus and saying that parents could not be trusted to spend it wisely ie on pokies etc. excellent advice in my view. That is a very big stick the govt can hit the coalition with. Wonder what they are waiting for?
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:25 am
bemused:
There, that wasn’t hard was it?
Thank you for finally owning up to your comments.
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:25 am
retiredleftie
Agreed.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:26 am
If the link on my 3161 doesn’t work:
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:26 am
TLM
Ms pure-as-the-driven-snow Jackson is not blowing the whistle ….. she’s blowing her own trumpet. Nothing trumps her self interest, or rather her self protection.
by psyclaw on May 14, 2012 at 9:26 am
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Politics/2012/05/03/HSU_boss_calls_for_new_union_regulator_746176.html
I’m not sure if anyone linked this article a couple of weeks ago.
Kathy Jackson thinks there should be a body separate from FWA to regulate unions. I wonder who she thinks should be running it?
by Danny Lewis on May 14, 2012 at 9:26 am
DL
If the wheels of justice turn fairly, K Jackson will not be able to run her own chook raffle
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:28 am
victoria
I have heard someone saying that about Abbott insulting parents – must have been somewhere on the ABC but can’t remember which pollie. Perhaps Macklin on Insiders.
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:28 am
lizzie
It needs to be hammered. Frankly, his latest comments were the most insulting I have heard in a long time.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:29 am
Good Morning
Another example of how low politics is becoming. I admire the Greens for having a real person who has overcome real life challenges in their team. A real political risk.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/councillor-preempts-rivals-dirt-file-to-reveal-her-own-troubled-past-20120513-1ykz9.html
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 9:30 am
Why no-one in the media is calling her properly on her obscene salary is beyond me.
She’s a grade-A hypocrite and they should starve her of oxygen in their own best interests. After all, once people start looking more closely at her and what she’s gotten up to both in the HSU and the ALP there are going to be an awful lot of people in the media – and the Opposition – with egg all over their faces.
by Danny Lewis on May 14, 2012 at 9:30 am
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:31 am
My say
There is no law which says one cannot discuss a legal matter. There is a law against acting in a way which could be seen to influence a juror eg Neville Wran telling in an interview that he expected Lionel Murphy will get off a charge.
We dont need a law in the case of Thomson. If anything happens arising from FWA it will be before a judge appointed by the Commonwelath Attorney General. He or she is not going to be influenced by anyone outsdide the court process – not even us.
by shellbell on May 14, 2012 at 9:32 am
DL
k Jackson is serving a short term goal for the msm and coalition. Destroy the standing of the govt, Thomson and Unions in Australia. So far, it is working. That is why I say this women is dangerous. The wheels of justice I mentioned before, had better turn a little more quickly than usual!!
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:33 am
Aren’t I? Each day I say thank heavens I have such a fine upstanding,articulate and always smiling MP, then do whatever I can to get rid of him , one day will succeed!
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:33 am
mari
Your wish may come true one day!
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:35 am
victoria @ 3159
I agree with you, but apparently what is OK for others to say gets up confessions nose if I agree.
Direct further inquiries to her.
by bemused on May 14, 2012 at 9:35 am
guytaur
What a brave woman and such a sad life.
And this is relevant to the discussion on drugs last night:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/councillor-preempts-rivals-dirt-file-to-reveal-her-own-troubled-past-20120513-1ykz9.html#ixzz1unP5fNFX
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:36 am
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/05/13/why-do-libertarians-support-conservative-parties/
Not about the politics of the moment but worth a look. I’m anti Libertarian myself, and I think this author is pro, but some interesting observations.
by Leroy on May 14, 2012 at 9:36 am
Guytaur: absolutely.
Part of the problem with “dirt files” is that it puts off everyone from getting involved in politics unless they have a past that is completely squeaky clean. And by “squeaky clean” I don’t mean law-breaking, but anything that could be beaten up into more than it is.
We actually NEED people in parliament representing us who actually understand, have experienced and who have overcome hardship and adversity. These are generally people with great compassion, dignity and strength of character.
Parliament is already overburdened with people who have had an eye on politics from the age of 16 and have lived their lives accordingly.
Give me a real, flawed human being any day.
by Danny Lewis on May 14, 2012 at 9:37 am
confessionsobsessions @ 3166You are stark raving bonkers.
by bemused on May 14, 2012 at 9:37 am
Minchin is an anti science ideologue….. a luddite who happens to have an engaging smile and looks pretty good in a Zena, but a luddite nevertheless.
He proclaimed on the QandA climate special last week that passive smoking does no harm.
by psyclaw on May 14, 2012 at 9:37 am
Isn’t that funny I and several other twitters are talking about that very topic at the moment
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:38 am
I see a lot of media inspired panic due to the Thomson case. No need to panic. It is a wait and see pattern for the statement Thomson is going to make.
As for the interview that Thomson did with Laurie Oakes the media has totally missed the point. They are calling Oakes’ questions forensic. They were no such thing. They were just the usual but what about stuff. Oakes had nothing to contradict Thomson. No smoking gun proving Thomson was lying about his assertions over phone calls. Just a cloud of suspicion to cast.
So lets all take a bit of a chill pill and remember innocent until proven guilty.
Do not fall for the media hype. Remember the media are basing most of their assertions on the FWA report. A report the media continue to quote as if it was holy writ not a report under attack for being flawed and biased.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 9:39 am
bemused
Can you stop with your insults!
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:39 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/union-dues/story-e6frg8h6-1226270776249
This is what one the twitters posted as part of our discussions re Kathy Jackson, even The Oz has doubts
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:42 am
victoria @ 3189
Insults? Hardly.
Just get your idiot friend to cease her behaviour which is getting beyond a joke and akin to cyberstalking.
by bemused on May 14, 2012 at 9:44 am
Another tweet about KJ
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:46 am
bemused
Seriously. Cut it out
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:47 am
Confessions,
Hold on to the fact thst your loved, imagine a white light around you , for protection,
I suffered so much, having a mother who was manic.
I remember one day seeing her in the city, she staring daggers as i looked.. i still see it
My darling oldest, about 14 at the time whispered mum.
”
The white light and keep walking, ”
Dont look back she said as clnched my hand
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 9:47 am
victoria @ 3193
I will respond to unprovoked attacks from anyone.
by bemused on May 14, 2012 at 9:48 am
vic,
The normal standards of decency do not apply to Bemused. Don’t let the old arse wind you up.
by Greensborough Growler on May 14, 2012 at 9:48 am
Mari
The OZ may have doubts about Jackson. But the reason it easy: it all started with an exclusive in Fairfax, and legal threats. If News got the story first, they’d have no doubts.
by al palster on May 14, 2012 at 9:49 am
GG @ 3196
by bemused on May 14, 2012 at 9:49 am
I wonder how many of these boxes the OO manages to tick ?
http://www.alternet.org/news/151497/14_propaganda_techniques_fox_%22news%22_uses_to_brainwash_americans?page=entire
by poroti on May 14, 2012 at 9:49 am