Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
middle man
If Thomson kicks off his own action to restrain FWA from commencing against him, it wont be sorted out for a very long time. If the restraining exercise, which could take a year, fails it will because the Court determines:
(a) the investigation was satisfactory;
(b) the complaints can proceed.
Good luck to him then. He will need it.
If Thomson achieves some restraining order, it will mean the FWA goes back to investigate some more and everyone gets another ride on the carousel.
The idea that an investigative body, with powers to seek court orders such as fines etc, can be kept at bay forever is fanciful.
by shellbell on May 11, 2012 at 9:41 pm
I think Obama should offer the VP position to Hillary Clinton, and offer Biden 2 years as Secretary of State as a consolation prize.
I’m not saying Biden is bad, but it would really energise the Democratic base to be able to make Clinton VP.
by ShowsOn on May 11, 2012 at 9:41 pm
The only thing revealing would be the dirt file on latham,the murdoch lacley.
by Schnappi on May 11, 2012 at 9:41 pm
CC seems to know whats everything happening lol yeah right!
by zoidlord on May 11, 2012 at 9:42 pm
The junior counsels assisting are very interested in how Bek will answer this.
by This little black duck on May 11, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Keating is the one who enjoys hating the most and best in converting it to words. His letter to John Robertson was written with a smile on his face and did not allow any reply.
Kroger is a loud but diffuse hater.
by shellbell on May 11, 2012 at 9:45 pm
CC
kroger and Costello have done their very best today trying to destroy each other. Absolute gold
by victoria on May 11, 2012 at 9:47 pm
by This little black duck on May 11, 2012 at 9:48 pm
@358 – if that is destroying, I beieve Rudd has been vaporised.
by Compact Crank on May 11, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Not “threat” but “persuasion.”
by This little black duck on May 11, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Aguirre:
I hear what you’re saying, but it makes no sense to me for the ABC to follow a commercial path only for it to lead to tanking ratings and pissed off viewers.
Unless the current crop are trying to morph the broadcaster into another News ltd. But that makes no sense either given there is a new Board who at least are at arm’s length from govt and who have the necessary expertise/experience for the role.
by confessions on May 11, 2012 at 9:55 pm
CC
The fun and games have just begun. Told you so
by victoria on May 11, 2012 at 9:55 pm
TLBD
Al Capone used to persuade people.
by Schnappi on May 11, 2012 at 9:59 pm
I await his latest post with anticipation!
by confessions on May 11, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Is this a well know radio person
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8466131/perth-shock-jock-sattler-suffers-strokes
by my say on May 11, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Holy jeebus am I glad at this.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/good-news-the-worlds-not-ending-according-to-the-mayans-20120511-1yhuu.html
by Schnappi on May 11, 2012 at 10:06 pm
my say
Alan Jones type
by guytaur on May 11, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Weak as piss, 1940 Belgians. Your fathers held out for 11 days at Liege.
by William Bowe on May 11, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Craig Thompson’s complaint is summarised on page 134 of the HSU report.
On reading the evidence in Chapter 6 – Expenditure of National Office funds for Mr Thomson’s personal benefit; pp 463- 505, any reasonable person, IMO, would have to conclude that if Thompson was set up the perpetrators must have been sheer geniuss….. travelled with Thompson, rang from his hotel rooms, used his mobile phone, had access to his driver’s licence and used both Thompson’s Diners and CBA Mastercard.
by Gauss on May 11, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Gusface has been a bit quiet online, lately. But he is still about and getting the word out. Some of his radio appearances … http://afrankview.net/2012/05/gusface-sez/
by Cuppa on May 11, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Funny that i have just been reading afv
by my say on May 11, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Mr Wozniak co founder of Apple. Stuns. Conroy says it shows why NBN is great.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/apple-co-founder-steve-wozniak-admits-he-doesnt-have-broadband-at-home/story-e6freuyi-1226353309258
by guytaur on May 11, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink
Weak as piss, 1940 Belgians. Your fathers held out for 11 days at Liege.
WW2 Tweets from 1940 @RealTimeWWII Following
Belgians in Eben Emael fort surrendering- been trapp
William let me know when the holland invasion is on pls
by my say on May 11, 2012 at 10:18 pm
If, by the convention, he is alive, well and hasn’t got a dead stripper in his boot, I’d bank on him being the VP nominee again, if he wants it.
Presidential reelection campaigns are pleas to stay the current course. Obama dropping anybody in an election year is an expression of lack of confidence in his team. A VP would have to be really bad to be dropped as there is more to lose than gain from the move.
I don’t see any benefit to having Clinton as the running mate, except “we’re setting her up for 2016″ which would send a message of presumption to the voters and one of authoritarianism to Democratic activists.
So, yes, barring some unforeseen and probably tragic variable, the Democratic ticket will be Obama/Biden
by Carey Moore on May 11, 2012 at 10:20 pm
I think it’s already over, My Say. SS Death’s Head last seen queuing for chocolates in Maastricht.
by William Bowe on May 11, 2012 at 10:21 pm
My Say…364 Re Howard Sattler’s stroke
——
No all we need is for something similar to hit Alan Jones…..
by deblonay on May 11, 2012 at 10:24 pm
William & My Say
Spoiler: Germany loses in the end.
by Carey Moore on May 11, 2012 at 10:24 pm
hehehehe. thats funny.
by middle man on May 11, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Carey
Not in “The Man in the High Castle”!
by Diogenes on May 11, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Have you checked out The Political Sword? Lots of good people there too. The set-pieces are worth reading every time, and there’s some superb writing in the comments threads. The host Ad Astra values his commenters, makes them welcome.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/
by Cuppa on May 11, 2012 at 10:28 pm
The Carbon Tax Scam artists have started
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/accc-sets-sights-on-carbon-tax-rip-offs/story-fn7j19iv-1226352876982
by guytaur on May 11, 2012 at 10:29 pm
What we need is for Australian audiences to grow the f*ck up and stop feeding these audio trolls.
Personally I think our discourse can be better than simply wishing death or harm to the people whose views we might disagree with.
by confessions on May 11, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Did they really?
by It’s Time on May 11, 2012 at 10:30 pm
“tony abbott” is mentioned three times as many times and “the liberals” on the alp website
by bluegreen on May 11, 2012 at 10:30 pm
confessions
Very well put.
by guytaur on May 11, 2012 at 10:31 pm
@BG/383
Labor is mentioned at least 6 times on the home page.
Leader of the Opposition mentioned twice.
At least 2 “Budget”.
Boats at least 3 times.
by zoidlord on May 11, 2012 at 10:33 pm
deblonay comment 375… Are you for real… you people are evil…
by New2This on May 11, 2012 at 10:34 pm
bluegreen:
I don’t understand what you are trying to say.
by confessions on May 11, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Zoidlord
On the PMs website there are almost 250 transcripts that mention Tony Abbott and less than thirty that mention “the liberals”
the problem is that Abbotts rating are in a ditch but the Liberals arent
by bluegreen on May 11, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Fiona @ 290
Who was that, Fiona? I can’t remember! LOL (Not to be confused with Cameron’s use of LOL to Brookes as, to my knowledge, you and I have never met, although I do have a cousin called Fiona).
by Allan Moyes on May 11, 2012 at 10:37 pm
This is fun:
by This little black duck on May 11, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Confessions I am trying to say they have laid an all out attack on Abbott and nobody likes him. Unfortunately for them, that doesnt stop them wanting the Liberals. They need to broaden the attack if they want to make it useful.
by bluegreen on May 11, 2012 at 10:38 pm
@BG/388
I’m holding out my view on polls as it too early to say, atm All Coalition/Media want is chaos and Labor to loose their numbers.
by zoidlord on May 11, 2012 at 10:39 pm
abbott does not understand that scrapping the carbon tax,and he says there will be no need for compensation
However the utilities and cost of living will have gone up because of it,how in the hell will he wind back the cost of living increases,hope someone asks him
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/libs-fight-as-abbott-keeps-his-distance-20120511-1yioy.html
by Schnappi on May 11, 2012 at 10:44 pm
bluegreen:
In an ideal world they’d get an Abbott gaffe which could be pinned on the libs as a whole.
by confessions on May 11, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Agree with Zoidlord that it is too early for any meaningful outcome from the polls. Lenore Taylor was on the radio saying yesterday that ‘budget bounce’ was a political myth – in 20 years she had never seen it. As far as Labor losing their numbers, the Craig Thomson affair has been foisted upon the ALP by Thomson. Unfortunately, it gives a bad odour that rubs off on the government. There will be an improvement from 59-41 for Labor – if they are polling 46 or 47 by August they will be in a better place – if it is on the downside of 45 – the electorate aren’t listening and they are gone.
by blackburnpseph on May 11, 2012 at 10:50 pm
by sprocket_ on May 11, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Nielsen Poll
Two Party Preferred: ALP 42 (-1) L/NP 58 (+1)
by GhostWhoVotes on May 11, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Neilsen on a Friday?!
by confessions on May 11, 2012 at 10:52 pm
@Lateline BISONs, BISONs & BISONs http://thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
by The Finnigans on May 11, 2012 at 10:55 pm