Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Well said My Say
by Tom Hawkins on May 14, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Mark Riley seems to think the government has kicked an own goal with their advertising re CT. The CT is not mentioned.
by Gary on May 14, 2012 at 6:11 pm
MTBW
I’m interested in what it is that ‘inspires’?
by Dee on May 14, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Beg your pardon: March 27th 2013 is the cut off date for a double dissolution trigger during this parliament
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Mark riley needs to explain in the clean energy legislation, where the word carbon tax is
by Meguire Bob on May 14, 2012 at 6:14 pm
What’s all this talk about a DD for? Huh? Must’ve missed something.
by ltep on May 14, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Happy day for climate denier’s with scientists trashing the climate commissioners on prime time news. I hope swan make a $180000 budget saving and cans Tim Flannery (baghdad bob). What a waste of money.
by rummel on May 14, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Its always good too know the nice thibgs the tories do in the uk:-)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/14/disability-benefits-slashed-half-million
a million people are set to lose their disability benefits under government plans, it has emerged.
The work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, said he was determined to introduce radical reforms to disability allowances that could slash the annual cost by £2.24bn.
Around 500,000 people in the UK who receive disability living allowance (DLA) could no longer be eligible for the replacement personal independence payment (PIP) under the plans, which are outlined in a report by the Department for Work and Pensions this month.
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Duncan Smith said there had been a 30% rise in the the number of claimants in recent years, with the annual cost of the benefits soon to reach £13bn.
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 6:15 pm
I am perfectly happy with Labor implementing policy, I want them to keep doing it until the end of 2013. No tricky crap about planning around dates.
Just do the stuff. It will win in the end.
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 6:15 pm
GG @ 3746
That quote is the only positive legacy that Rumsfeld has left the world.
by blackburnpseph on May 14, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Dee
“Inspire” was my word – they couldn’t care less any more.
by MTBW on May 14, 2012 at 6:16 pm
So wot, is julia going to call a DD election?
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 6:17 pm
No-one seems to be talking about the huge amounts spent on advertising by the Howard government.
Here’s Penny Wong on the subject
http://www.financeminister.gov.au/media/2012/mr_652012.html
and some more -
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/168m-in-carbon-tax-ads-20120404-1wd75.html
and more -
http://www.alp.org.au/federal-government/news/updated-net-budget-impact-of-election-policies-%286%29/
by leone on May 14, 2012 at 6:17 pm
spur
i was very sure our estimate was well founded and rational – there’s been a similar discussion before about DD dates although six months before seems long. in any case october 27 seems verrrryyy long away
partly come here to vent worries and doubt. my partner will not have a bar of criticism of government and is vicious again media – like many here. i only reply that JG is in part by her own volition a sitting target
by geoffrey on May 14, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Did you tell them that the happy attitude might be a result of that marijuana they grow a lot of in the local hills, Zoomster?
by joe2 on May 14, 2012 at 6:18 pm
I haven’t given a cent to the Salvos since their head criticised Seinfeld.
Their subsequent actions on drug and gambling policy haven’t changed my opinion.
by Diogenes on May 14, 2012 at 6:18 pm
The government should just bet on with the advertising. They are getting smashed anyway – might as be getting the message out while they do it.
Take every question about the ad spend as a chance to spread the word too.
by roaldan1000 on May 14, 2012 at 6:19 pm
Indeed. Severe mental disability/brain damage aside, I’ve always been a firm believer that if you instil children a sense of compassion and self-confidence then they won’t go too far wrong in life.
by Danny Lewis on May 14, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Assume you are sleeping on the couch then, what a wise person you partner is, in more than one way!
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Vic/kezza, i call her #ElSlacko not because she was slack.
on the contrary, in the early days of tweeting, she so keen & diligent, she tweeted non stop and got RSI. i told her to slack off.
now, she is more Senior and does more background work. she produces Capital Hill
by The Finnigans on May 14, 2012 at 6:21 pm
I notice the ACT Labor government has not added to the SIEV X or a new a memorial after the latest deaths under a federal Labor government. They made a big song and dance in 07 during the end of days of the JWH government.
by rummel on May 14, 2012 at 6:23 pm
George Megalogenis repeats the misleading meme that the PM is “loathed”. I have never seen an opinion poll that tests this. All the polls are simply approve/disapprove. You simply cannot extrapolate from a high disapproved vote that someone is “loathed”. For all we know the people who disapprove of the PM might only slightly disapprove of her and those who disapprove of the LOTO might STRONGLY disapprove of him (that’s my secret hope anyway!).
The use of language like “loathed” surely misrepresents public opinion, especially those members of the public only lightly engaged with politics, many of whom probably don’t have strong feelings either way. Someone posted earlier today (sorry cant’ give a link) that they had been talking to someone who had been doing focus group work – and they had said that they hadn’t picked up anything like that strength of feeling.
I think public opinion is still very fluid. We shouldn’t get sucked in by memes about public opinion that are not really backed up by poll research – I’m always disappointed when otherwise reasonable journalists seem to get suckered in like this as well.
by ajm on May 14, 2012 at 6:24 pm
bit like aspirations,so easily forgotton.
by Schnappi on May 14, 2012 at 6:24 pm
DL
You can’t instil those values into some kids.
by Diogenes on May 14, 2012 at 6:24 pm
The Finn
I know you call Latika El slacko as a term of endearment
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 6:25 pm
How does The PM get a DD trigger when both houses pass all her legislation?
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Yes let’s talk about it.. Labor said they would end the waste so I can’t wait for labor and gillard to break another promise. So many non-core promises under Labor it’s hard to keep track of them all.
by rummel on May 14, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Itep
If the government lasts long enough, there will come a time where Abbott will be unable to keep his promise of repealing the carbon tax, MRRT etc.
My estimate is that it will be around October 27th around six months before the deadline for a double dissolution trigger (i.e if Abbott got control of the parliament, he wouldn’t be able to get the senate the way he needs it to repeal the legislation after that date).
If we get to that date and Gillard hasn’t managed to get a moderate improvement (I’d say around 34% ALP primary vote), they should switch to Rudd and spend a year solidly attacking Abbott’s inconsistencies and the dangers of what he’d do to the country if he became PM. It would be a secure attack as his populist rhetoric would be held hostage to the senate configuration, economic certainty etc
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 6:26 pm
ABC Drum lined up three ignorant nobodies to kick Craig Tomson to death tonight on telly. Back a couple of hundred years to the market place solution, public flogging, rotten vegetables, crowd howling for more, bugger the dignity of the law. Mob rules. Leanore Taylor and Mark Latham have already issued warnings about this 24/7 orgy of Thomson bashing. Unfortunately, bullies don’t listen.
by susan winstanley on May 14, 2012 at 6:27 pm
spur, I’m still struggling to see how the DD date is relevant to switching to Rudd? Are you saying Abbott wouldn’t bother trying to get the PMship after that date?
by ltep on May 14, 2012 at 6:28 pm
ruawake
If Abbott became PM (i.e the ALP lost control of the floor), he’d need to call a double dissolution to get the senate into alignment. Otherwise he’d have to wait until August 2013 by which time, the policies will have been firmly entrenched
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 6:28 pm
sw
Of course bullies do not listen.
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 6:28 pm
On the Television commercials. I think not mentioning the carbon pricing is deliberate. The outrage of not mentioning it is giving free plugs to it on all the news channel. Thus getting advertising on the otherwise advertising free ABC. Every time the right wing hacks slam the advertisements they are telling people the government is giving them money.
Therefore the public is going to be very aware this time the government is giving them money.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 6:29 pm
MYTWOBOBSWORTH
Here this may inspire a few of your sad poor friends
: But this lack of genuine, deep cuts in spending all mean the budget isn’t as bad as it seems – in the sense that it won’t deal the blow to demand in the economy that its planned withdrawal of $45.5 billion, the turnaround in the budget balance, implies. READ MORE. In fact, cash payments to the lower & middle income families will keep the economy humming because they will be spent. The Budget forecasts a GDP growth of 3.25% & steady Unemployment at 5.5%. Inflation at 3.25% next year with carbon price component worth 0.75%. Debt is less than 8% of GDP. One of the lowest in the world.
4. Low Taxing Govt – Australia is now the 6th lowest taxing country in the OECD. Expenditure to go from 25.1% of GDP to 23.5%. Last year the budget expected 2012-13 tax revenue to be 22.3% of GDP, now expected to be 22.1% #budget. The last Howard year was 23.7% GDP and the average Tax to GDP ratio under Howard was 23.4% of GDP.
5. Education – This year the Gillard Govt will spend $13.6B on our schools – $5.1B more per year than last Howard Govt budget. $2.1 billion over five years to replace Education Tax Refund with Schoolkids Bonus. Parents with school children will receive cash payment up to $820 extra a year for high school students, or $410 for primary pupils, under changes to the education tax refund. $54 million – New funding in to boost science and maths teaching in schools.
6. Welfare – Increase to family tax benefit A if elegible.For families on maximum rate, extra $300 per year for one child, extra $600 a year for families with two or more children.For families on base rate, extra $100 a year for one child, extra $200 a year for families with two or more children.Limiting of eligibility for Family Tax Benefit A to children under 18, or children at se
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 6:29 pm
rummie
Howard was spending nearly half a billion a year on advertising, surely even you would concede this as a tad excessive?
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 6:29 pm
Rhys Muldoon is a real snake.
Rudd’s little boy, can’t find anything good in anything Labor with his Master does.
by Bushfire Bill on May 14, 2012 at 6:30 pm
ltep
I’m saying if Abbott became PM in this parliament, he’d have until March 27th 2013 to get a double dissolution election in order to get the senate he needs to repeal the legislation he’s promised to repeal. If he can’t, he’s a goner regardless of whether he becomes PM or not due to timing, the economy, senate configuration etc
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Just sent the following email to Abbott’s Senator Mitch Fifield
quote
“Good Evening Senator
On the news today you and Abbott are calling for a bipartisan committee for the NDIS.
We had such a committee in 2009. Mr McFarlane represented your mob and Ms Wong represented the government.
This was called the In-Good-Faith CPRS committee. Remember? Minchin, Abetz, Benardi and probably other denier senators conspired to dump Mr Turnbull and the CPRS agreement.
Now why would the government ever again trust your mob in a bipartisan operation. Your faceless men will see that any agreement not suiting them will be dumped, and if necessary the leader too.
Have you no shame?”
end quote
by psyclaw on May 14, 2012 at 6:31 pm
ru,
“How does The PM get a DD trigger when both houses pass all her legislation?”
Just more evidence of an incompetent Labor Government.
by Greensborough Growler on May 14, 2012 at 6:31 pm
spur
I understand, all this stuff you are talking about needs Abbott to be PM first.
Please tell me how he manages to do this?
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 6:32 pm
psyclaw
Would be interested in any reply
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 6:33 pm
If my mother was my uncle I won’t have to take her to lunch on the second Sunday in may.
Is this similar to your argument spur?
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 6:34 pm
I do and I’m alert and alarmed that Labor are going to break another promis on government advertising
by rummel on May 14, 2012 at 6:34 pm
diog
That’s sounds interesting. I’ve been away cooking meat balls in oxtail soup, with English spinach.
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 6:35 pm
We worked hard on the Keating campaign. Yes, he is a great wit, a progressive thinker & we love the guy, but he was never inspirational in the traditional sense.
People hated him with a passion & that emotion encompassed both the election win & loss.
We tend to judge everything in hindsight through rose coloured glasses.
IMO, We haven’t had many orators that I would call inspirational to the ‘masses’.
by Dee on May 14, 2012 at 6:35 pm
BB: what’s Muldoon up to now?
by Danny Lewis on May 14, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Just filled out a Poll with Graham Young and What the people want site ? Anybody know who these are, Friend or foe ?
by Lord Barry Bonkton on May 14, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Dee
I would rather a govt that does the walk rather than the talk. Hmmm…. Wonder who was only good at the talking?
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 6:36 pm
GG: #3787 I cant comment on whether the PM has anything like a DD, I’ve met her but I thought it better manners just to look at her face when we were speaking …
Various of the LOTO’s dimensions of course are all too well known by contrast, being thrust in our faces all the time
by Marrickville Mauler on May 14, 2012 at 6:36 pm
spur et al
If Labor lost the confidence of the House, it wouldn’t be up to Abbott to set the timelines.
The GG would have a process to work through.
If she was convinced that no one could form a working government, she would dissolve the Parliament, and there would be an election.
If Abbott was able to prove he could form government, then there would be no need for an election.
In the
by zoomster on May 14, 2012 at 6:38 pm