Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BB
Tell me you’re not serious.
Gillard should NEVER compromise to give the biggest dickhead in town an even break.
What you’re suggesting is political suicide.
Anyway, she’ll never do it.
She’d win an arm wrestle with this two-bit shyster any day, any time.
He’s as weak as piss.
by kezza2 on May 14, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Again, those ppl are 50% Libs (who would automatically disapprove) 30 Labor/10 green/10 other … thus strongly disapprove will ALWAYS be worse.
by jenauthor on May 14, 2012 at 7:32 pm
No if Abbott gains control of the Senate, the carbon scheme and the mining tax will go.
will head towards cutting spending in all areas to ultimately bring the budget to surplus.
Abbott’s PPL will be instantly binned and the
The NBN will be privatised as soon as it is completed, and with a growing Australian economy, excess government revenues will be returned to the highest income earners.
Abbott believes in small government and the people will get it!
Labor will probably get back in government after say 4 successive election defeats, but they will destroy the Greens in their own best interests beforehand.
That’s it!
by Centre on May 14, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Cattlemen want compensation,hope the anti live trade speak up,greed does not justify cruelty to animals.
by Schnappi on May 14, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Dave Oliver on with Toolman.
So far no interruption, but early days.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Christine Milne loaded on YouTube yesterday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OClzeqdMLHs&feature=player_embedded
Christine, from the full IPPC Special report on Extremes, Chapter 4, 28 Mar 2012
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com.au/search?updated-max=2012-04-05T07:54:00-06:00&max-results=20&start=20&by-date=false
by Gauss on May 14, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Greensborough Growler
Orrrr do you mean……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e61uC-5s9VU
Orrr do you mean……….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLR3CgeUeyc
by poroti on May 14, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Dave Oliver stating his case well. Toolman still not interrupting.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:40 pm
I’m not so sure. When Treasury tells him that this will require the government to buy back all the permits that have been auctioned off, he will probably just choose to sell new permits for a lower price after the existing permits expire at the end of the financial year.
by ShowsOn on May 14, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Two interruptions by Toolman so far
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Good line from Oliver
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Kezza
One doesn’t need a good imagination, one only needs a little hindsight.
How did howard have such a strong control over all his troops for 12 years.
He no doubt had a filing cabinet full of information on his own troops . given him by SeweRoo He also would have been given information about those on the opposition benches.
Ruawake
That is exactly the point, Australia and its citizens are being led by the nose by a person who is not an Australian citizen.
SeweRoo has got the shits because the ALP reduced his multi billion dollar advertising cash cow and he now wants to destroy the Government by sedition to get his mates back in so they can give it back to him.
He is not interested in Australians, he’s interested only in how much of our money he can filter through to his bank accounts.
by Gaffhook on May 14, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Sorry the 2nd link @ 3855 is incorrect. Should be: -
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/handy-bullshit-button-on-disasters-and.html
by Gauss on May 14, 2012 at 7:44 pm
I may have missed one. Very few interruptions from Toolman. The complaints from the people and VIP like PJK seem to have had an effect.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Gauss
Christine Milne has never fought a Tory in her life. “Personalise the impact” gets quickly twisted into “climate catastrophist fear campaign”
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Shows On, those with permits will enjoy a huge windfall either way. It will happen
by Centre on May 14, 2012 at 7:46 pm
spur212
Yes so you say. I say you know nothing about Christine Milne saying that.
See here Wesley Vale campaign. It was very much a fight against Tories.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 pm
spur212
I was more concerned about this part.
by Gauss on May 14, 2012 at 7:50 pm
I don’t want to know.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 14, 2012 at 7:50 pm
guytaur
In the People’s Republic of Tasmania, sure. In the rest of the country, no
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Gauss
That intensity gets quickly translated into “pain, pain, pain!!!”
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Abbott will be able to say anything to the huge number of dumb voters and get away with it easily.
A budget deficit in the early years will be blamed on Labor, hence the need to sell the NBN.
The saddest thing will be that instead of building a Nation with the best investment and services to make this country the best in the world, Abbott will continue with his agenda of cutting expenditure, no investment, and returning all excess revenues, at a time of economic growth, to the very highest income earners.
No there is something worse than that – the media will continue to put on the show!
by Centre on May 14, 2012 at 7:54 pm
i am still waiting for SeweRoos US$20 a barrel of oil he said would happen after Iraq was “fixed up”
What a Charlatan.
by Gaffhook on May 14, 2012 at 7:57 pm
guy, my 26 Fatwa’s
by The Finnigans on May 14, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Afraid not Jenauthor:
Out of the previous 10 Essential results (see link William provided):
5 had higher strongly disapproves than disapproves and (you guessed it)
5 had lower strongly disapproves than disapproves.
Sorry, the data doesn’t match your theory.
by Mod Lib on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 pm
spur212
You really are showing your ignorance now. Tasmania has the Hare/Clark system with the Robson rotating Ballot. Just possibly the most democratic electoral system in the world.
You have put blinders on and say Green Green evil evil evil. Just because they point out some industries have to die and people have to transition to other jobs.
At least that is why I guess you say that. It is certainly not about who the Greens are fighting it is that you prefer to attack the Greens than defend Labor’s policies.
People voting Green are progressives. Labor voters are progressive. Why are Labor losing votes to the Greens? Policies.
Meanwhile the tories are laughing at the squabbling of the allies in government from the progressive side not attacking them.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Gaffhook
And, he would have been aware of the alternate file on the Oppo.
Does it really matter?
Rupert Murdoch has compromised Australian democracy.
He should be charged for sedition.
As an alien. No less.
I guess it’s not happening at the moment in respect of his mother.
As long as she lives, Rupert is protected.
by kezza2 on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 pm
I do hope Penny Wong has a Coalition shit sheet for her appearance on qanda tonight.
by Dee on May 14, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Probably why he will not win the next election,as too many libs and nats want the NBN
Have believed the NBN destruction was what lost abbott the last election.
by Schnappi on May 14, 2012 at 8:02 pm
CENTRE DID U HAVE TO WRITE that,
Thankyou so much for your amazing optimisim NOT
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 8:02 pm
I first encountered the Opus Dei when I was 15 and then again when at Uni in the late 1970s. It was no secret that their plan was to engage with young bright men to bring them into their way of seeing the world. Ultimately, they wanted these men – future leaders – to spread the Opus Dei word. I got seduced by it for a while. Until I discovered sex with women was a much better way to spend my time.
by Lynchpin on May 14, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Schnappi
Yes. If not in the actual vote certainly in the negotiations. That is what swung it for Windsor and to lesser degrees Oakshott Bandt and Wilkie.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Gaffhook
Whilst by pure coincidence ALL 147 “independent” Rupertarium editors around the globe came to the same conclusion.
by poroti on May 14, 2012 at 8:04 pm
Scnanappi
Can i add something to your sentance
robably why he ABBOTT
will not win the next election,as too many libs and nats want the NBN
H
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 8:04 pm
Actually, I like BB’s idea. It could turn out to be a monumental wedge:
“Well, obviously if the Coalition have a landslide win at the next election then that means all of their agenda has been endorsed by the Australian people.”
“It means that if people vote for the Coalition, they are saying they want the NDIS shelved indefinitely.”
“It means the NBN will be stopped in its tracks and the Rolls Royce broadband scheme will be replaced by a Fiat Bambino scheme”
“It means that Carbon Pricing will come to an end and the Government’s plan will be shelved – and compensation rolled back – so the Liberals can afford their more expensive and less efficient Direct Action Scheme.”
“It means the fairer Paid Parental Scheme plan will be replaced by a “nannies for the rich” scheme and a business-pays PPL scheme whereby costs would ultimately be passed on to everyone, regardless of their income.”
“It means that health and education reforms will be put on the back burner until some unspecified “aspirational” time-frame passes.”
“In short, everything that you want – everything this government has promised and is delivering – will be wound back in favour of things that are either uncosted, non-existent or far too expensive.”
“But, hey; if that’s what you really want then we will let you have it.”
by Danny Lewis on May 14, 2012 at 8:05 pm
So Modlib:
The percentage of Lib respondents voting for the PM disapproval doesn’t count, but it does count in the number who prefer Hockey/Swan … of course!
Makes sense now ….
by jenauthor on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 pm
(y are showing your ignorance now. Tasmania has the Hare/Clark system with the Robson rotating Ballot. Just possibly the most democratic electoral system in the world. You have put blinders on and say Green Green evil evil evil. Just because they point out some industries have to die and people have to transition to other jobs. At least that is why I guess you say that. It is certainly not about who the Greens are fighting it is that you prefer to attack the Greens than defend Labor’s policies.))
Some industries eithrr fade away or change,
Coaches, pullrd by horses taking people on long distance
Became busses, c ars, trains
the horsen poo man learned to change tires, the coach driver learned
to drive.
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Yer, it sure beats whacking yourself over the back with nettles while still dreaming about them, anyway.
My bet is Tone is opus dei. He couldn’t make it with the jesuits. So dumb.
by joe2 on May 14, 2012 at 8:11 pm
I think the only confirmed member of Opus Dei in the Parliament is Kevin Andrews. I doubt they would have accepted Abbott – with his loose morals at Uni.
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 8:12 pm
It’s funny, isn’t it?
Everyone has something to say about Rupert.
Except when you get to the point of nailing him down.
Then you run a mile.
Is it fear?
I have none. I have nothing left that would be open to Rupert Murdoch’s idea of “compromise” – yet I know him more intimately than he would ever know me.
Rupert Murdoch is the biggest danger to Australia’s sovereignty – our sovereignty – and he needs to be teased out – by all of us – and caught – hook, line and sinker.
by kezza2 on May 14, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Would account for why Abbott walks so strangely – the use of a cilice – a constant for someone who lies so often!
by jenauthor on May 14, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Chris Kenny makes a similar point in todays Australian, except he goes further. Kenny advises Abbott to dump all of his policies because he has the political capital to do whatever he wants – his only problem will be the size of his back bench.
So no Direct Action, Green Army, PPL, MRRT, ETS, NDIS, NBN etc. Just ditch the lot.
Where do these people crawl out of?
by ruawake on May 14, 2012 at 8:16 pm
-so what is mr olivers bak ground
Was he impressive
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 8:17 pm
The interview of Dave Oliver by Uhlmann was another exhibition of his incompetence.
He seems to have two modes of operation – one is to belittle and interrupt the interviewee (as he does with the PM) and ends up getting nowhere apart from making the poor victim look bad.
The other mode is to ask a predetermined set of questions with no awareness of what is happening. Oliver walked all over him. Uhlmann asked about unions funding the Labor party and Oliver just swatted him away with a platitude about “campaigning on specific issues”. I was waiting for the follow up something like “But I’m interested in your views in more general terms about unions supporting one side of politics only.” I’m sure Red Kezza would have come back with that one. But it never came – just straight on to the next question on the list. Dave Oliver dealt with all the questions with consumate ease.
Uhlmann is just not up to the job and should be dropped as soon as possible. This is regardless of whether he is biased or not. I would actually prefer a biased but competent interviewer.
by ajm on May 14, 2012 at 8:18 pm
I think BB’s strategy, perhaps closer to the election, is a good one. I think Labor should hold their course until the chance the carbon price legislation and associated benefits have had time to bed donw, though.
But, possibly as part of the election campaign, BB’s strategy is sound. Only when confronted with the horror of an Abbott led government becomes closer to reality is it likely the electorate will really consider what this may mean.
by clements steve on May 14, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Jen:
It should make sense. It is pretty straighforward!
You said:
But the truth is strongly disapprove is not ALWAYS worse as you claim in dramatic capitalisation.
A simple “I am sorry, I got that wrong” would have been sufficient.
Oh, thats right! I am in alternate universe PB land when even the most clear cut case of a poster being wrong is explained away with some sophistry!!!
by Mod Lib on May 14, 2012 at 8:21 pm
joe2
Aye and as came up in RN last Saturday the HSU ( NSW style) leadership back in the day were “groupers” . How do the Opus chaps and groupers get on ? There seems to be a Santamaria thang goin on.
by poroti on May 14, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Diogenes@3725,
Must be the night for making soup. Mines a Sweet Potato Curry Soup.
by C@tmomma on May 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
my say
Dave Oliver has taken on the job once held by Bob Hawke and Greg Combet amongst others. As for was he impressive see AJM’s post at 3893
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 8:25 pm
As many others do, I just received my regular fortnightly Family Tax Benefit text from Centrelink, with an extra note:
Bet that’ll prick a few ears up around Average Joe’s kitchen table this week.
by gloryconsequence on May 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm