Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Chris Kenny Hates Australia
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/chris-kenny-hates-australia.html
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 8:55 pm
(n the other side of the family, I have a great grandfather who was a catholic priest. Left the priesthood and married the mother of his two year old daughter.
Now you might understand why I chose athiesm. lol)
I know all about these sort of things sk
But the nuns thats taught me where wonderful, there is no way i could for get their courage
My family , are irish catholic, church of england, methodist,my scotch grandmother i adored and when visiting would go to her church with her
I chose not to deny my background and my faith, which is richer than ever
Ichose to just stop going to church,
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 8:56 pm
The collective intelligence of Poll Bludger discovered during the last Tasmanian election that the chief economic activity of Tasmania is vote counting.
by ShowsOn on May 14, 2012 at 8:56 pm
banks have margins they work to and returns to shareholders, increase tax and you decrease those returns unless you increase your margins.
The 1% tax cut would also have meant less pressure on margins, worth about 20 basis points, but Abbott refused it.
by castle on May 14, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Is it true… Is Thomson going to walk?
by New2This on May 14, 2012 at 8:57 pm
confessions
I mentioned today that The msm and coalition are being relentless, and the strategy may be to push Thomson to resign from parliament.
Although, the msm and coalition have been harrassing Thomson for years now, why should he give them the satisfaction
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 8:57 pm
And, if Tony Abbott was being true to his Catholic roots,
he should take himself out the back
and horse-whip himself with his racing bike.
And pigs might fly.
What a bluddy hypocrite he is.
by kezza2 on May 14, 2012 at 8:58 pm
See you bludgers a bit later. Going to prepare myself for QandA. Got to tolerate Sloane enough so I do not kick tv in (yes will be using mute judiciously). All so I can see Senator Wong do her thing.
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Better try and arrange a baby sitter, then. Might be a big night at the services club.
by joe2 on May 14, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Now ill be in troible
I read only last week. That athiesim, is an in thing, at the moment.
A trendy thing,
It wa a story, about christian art and paintings, and an exhibition of same travelling to art galleries
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Why would he? This bloke is in fighting mode. The indies have said they want justice to take its course. He has no reason to get out, not yet anyway.
by Gary on May 14, 2012 at 9:00 pm
http://janeelix.wordpress.com/2012/05/07/christine-milne/
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 9:01 pm
castle:
The coalition hysteria on the carbon price and MRRT putting upward pressure on interest rates is very neatly countered by referencing Tony Abbott’s Great Big DIrect Tax on Banks.
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:01 pm
Did Mike Smith send a shiver up his spine this afternoon…
by New2This on May 14, 2012 at 9:01 pm
After several nuisance calls last Saturday, got one from Newspoll which I thoughtlessly eschewed. One vote less for Labor.
by Toorak Toff on May 14, 2012 at 9:01 pm
Thomson cant quit. He will need the money if:
(a) FWA kick off in the Federal Court; and
(b) He is going to fight it.
by shellbell on May 14, 2012 at 9:02 pm
You know the issue is at the end of it’s tether when the cry is “Well… the rumours are that Thomson’s gonna walk!”
by gloryconsequence on May 14, 2012 at 9:02 pm
victoria
So either Pyne is making a big man of himself when he’s done very little, or he’s so sure that the scam will work that he wants to take all the credit and sees no harm in that.
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:03 pm
confessions – ring ACCC and complain. Get them to check the Council bloke out for giving incorrect info re CT.
by BH on May 14, 2012 at 9:03 pm
my say
Thanks
by guytaur on May 14, 2012 at 9:03 pm
victoria:
Agreed. Thomson has had shit flung at him by the Liberals for how long now? Why would he resign from parliament and effectively cede govt to them?
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:04 pm
I hope Penny Wong gives that tiresome woman Judith Sloane a real toasting tonight on QandA.
by BK on May 14, 2012 at 9:04 pm
I heard on #SBSNews tonite Indo FM Marty Natralegawa has criticised Abbott’s Turn The Boat Policy again but cant find anymore @bobjcarr ?
by The Finnigans on May 14, 2012 at 9:05 pm
And welcome again to you
by mari on May 14, 2012 at 9:05 pm
On balance – doesn’t QandA work on a proportional audience according to the latest polls? Maybe they’re starting to do the same with their panel. Going to get very heavy and boring if that is so.
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Might be MOAR…………………..
by The Finnigans on May 14, 2012 at 9:06 pm
BH:
If I could do it anonymously I would consider it.
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Finns
I’ve never heard a dolphin ROAR as loud as you do
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:07 pm
confessions
There are many councils now picking up the narrative “rates up because of carbon tax”. Stephen Mayne tweeted that his council has done that ~a week ago. CH7 have proudly run several Melb councils spruiking it, too.
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Me too.
Sounds like your ancestors bit the bullet, though.
Good on them!
And good on the story being out in the open.
Abbott’s wouldn’t, in a fit.
And Abbott is the worst of the worst.
Couldn’t lie straight in bed.
Couldn’t tell the truth if he tried.
I couldn’t care less about his obsessions
but I do care about truth.
Sometimes I think his reticence – silences, whatever – are when he’s tossing up whether to tell the truth or not.
But he just can’t do it.
I don’t hate him for that.
I hate Catholicism for that.
It’s a religion that has allowed lies to be forgiven.
Tony Abbott doesn’t need to wrestle with his conscience
(although I can see the struggle)
he knows he will be forgiven
even though his conscience will never forgive him.
I’d hate to be Tony Abbott.
by kezza2 on May 14, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Finns
Do you know much about David Donovan?
by victoria on May 14, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Modlib completely misunderstood my argument bc he/she/it wants to see it through his/her/its personal prism.
Not going to bother to enlighten him/her/it except to say:
30 out of 40, is %wise more than 30 out of 50.
Modlib is looking at my argument upside/down.
by jenauthor on May 14, 2012 at 9:16 pm
lizzie:
I can understand large councils in capital cities doing that, esp those which were named in that report which was released last week showing the ‘hardest hit’ organisations/businesses/councils.
But as I said, our council is so small, offers no service delivery other than rates, rubbish, roads, has solar panels on the roof of the shire offices, yet the mayor is rabbiting on in the recent paper about electricity prices.
It’s hard to reconcile his rhetoric with the actual reality of council outgoings.
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Have tweeted BB’s strategy and Danny’s thoughts (3884).
Many positive comments
by clements steve on May 14, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Gary
I’d be seriously considering quitting if I was Thomson (irrespective of whether he’s done something or not).
He won’t get preselection and his political career is over. He’s under more public pressure that anyone in Australia and it must take a toll. His life would be an awful lot better if he quit, although I accept money might be a problem.
by Diogenes on May 14, 2012 at 9:18 pm
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/05/14/is-abbott-consciously-lying-on-nbn-costs/
by my say on May 14, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Mari @ 3973, thanks.
Many bright minds on this site, and it IS being watched. Can see how both ‘sides’ are capable of discussing maturely.
by clements steve on May 14, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Diog
If he quits, there’s the book, then the documentary, then the sponsorships and speeches…
by lizzie on May 14, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Europe not so good
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9263419/Debt-crisis-live.html
Check out the simplified figs on USA debt at 11.54
by Last name red wombat on May 14, 2012 at 9:20 pm
Lizze,
The BISONs ROAR …. The Dolphin just flips flips flips
by The Finnigans on May 14, 2012 at 9:20 pm
confessions
Are you in Victoria?
by fiona on May 14, 2012 at 9:21 pm
kezza2,
The bit I don’t understand with Abbott’s BS sprays is that I can’t even finish the sentence if I know I telling porkies. If I don’t believe it or feel compromised about something I can’t get through the telling.
Don’t know he stands there and reels off outright lie after outright lie with a straight face.
by Space Kidette on May 14, 2012 at 9:23 pm
The amusing thing to me is just how off the planet the Liberal Party are on policy right now.
The Asian Language policy announcement last week tells me that the Coalition are in complete policy disarray and have lost a sense of narrative outside of what isn’t the ALP (and that Asian Language policy is something the ALP would strongly approve of).
If the ALP managed to get out of this sideshow of Slipper and Thomson, they’d be absolutely walloping the Coalition on policy. The problem is they’ve had zero luck and now have resorted to a strategy of trying to win back the base
by spur212 on May 14, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Dio:
The difficulty for him is that if he walks he effectively cedes govt to the coalition as Labor would need Katter now that Crook is in the LNP fold, and Slipper is sidelined from the Speakership.
Given the vitriol levelled at him by the coalition, I can just imagine him wanting to stick it out, to deny them what they see is so close, yet so far.
It’s what I’d do anyways.
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:25 pm
fiona:
No, sorry, I don’t live in Victoria.
by confessions on May 14, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Amanda Vanstone seems to think she has some economic credentials. Her article is trying to make out that labour will leave an economic mess for the libs to clean up.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/forget-the-farcical-surplus-its-debt-we-have-to-worry-about-20120513-1ykq6.html?rand=1336915042055
I remember her blowing up thousands of tax payer dollars on her language classes.
by smssiva on May 14, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Spur
I posted a copy of a speech that Pyne had made where he made a song and dance about how the current curiculum has far too much focus on Asia.
So a new policy about Asian Languages is completely disagreemnt with Pyne’s education policy.
And no journos picked it up and asked either Pyne or Abbott about it.
by bluegreen on May 14, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Did anyone see JG’s interview today from QLD. She looked very calm and relaxed.
I wondered if she knew something we don’t.
by Space Kidette on May 14, 2012 at 9:29 pm
nup, would spoil the mud crab.
by Gaffhook on May 14, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Craig shags the BISON’s…
by New2This on May 14, 2012 at 9:29 pm