Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Rossmore @ 592
Apologies comrade.
We must all march in step following Julia to oblivion.
There, feel better now?
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 12:24 am
Only less entertaining…
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 12:24 am
There had better be Liberal leader comparisons or I a consigning the whole lot to the push-polling bin.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 12:25 am
A good week for the govt.
A good, smart budget, liberal infighting and an atrocious, lightweight response from Abbott.
Plenty of growth for labor.
by Henry on May 12, 2012 at 12:25 am
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 12:25 am
Bemused dance with the enemy at your peril. Mod Lib crow as much as you like ….. your mob are bereft of cogent ideas ….
by Rossmore on May 12, 2012 at 12:25 am
Zoidlord, Kroger has never been in parliament, and Costello not for a while. Your point?
by blackburnpseph on May 12, 2012 at 12:26 am
The liberals are stuck with abbott as the rest are worse than him,worst opposition in history,and most are punch drunk as him.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 12:27 am
Abbott’s now beginning to be seen as moderate. That’s how bad things have gotten.
You can go on about BISON’s and whatever you like, but the electorate just don’t feel it and they simply have no time for Gillard
by spur212 on May 12, 2012 at 12:27 am
I don’t want to put a downer on the general mood, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we are not acutally seeing a poll “bounce” from the good week for ALP and bad week for the LNP.
The 58-42 might actually be a bounce from where the natural trend is actually sitting.
Time will tell.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 12:27 am
Rubbish.
As soon as there is any trouble in the LNP stratospheric vote, we just dump Abbott and then see it take off all over again for another couple of years…
It is a glorious position, particularly with the ALP leader having an Albatross well and truly dangling from her neck, and the ALP asking everyone on the crew to just stare at the upcoming iceberg and not speak.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 12:29 am
Henry @ 603
Thomson – conveniently forgotten?
by blackburnpseph on May 12, 2012 at 12:29 am
You must be joking?
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 12:29 am
I wonder how long it is going to take for Senator Conroy to read the Leveson Report at the end of all this?
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 12:29 am
I well remember the Labor faithful saying in 2007 that the Liberal Party was finished and it will take years to recover if at all so don’t get too excited about golden eras for the Libs ML. Things change quickly in politics just ask Rudd.
by davidwh on May 12, 2012 at 12:29 am
Rossmore @ 605
Well, we read the same poll and the results are fairly obvious for all to see. And how you construe that as dancing with the enemy defies logic.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 12:31 am
Henry,
I agree. What is interesting is that the Coalition have fired all their big canon to get this result. I can only think they want to deny the gov’t a springboard for their recovery and to cement the propaganda in the voters attitudes.
The Fibs have left little to fight on with, and as the ABC found out with Toolman, they risk being seen as bullies if they keep this up. They are already trying to clean up Moany Tony’s image but I think that is set in stone by now too.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 12:31 am
Very true, the cycle will roll around again.
by blackburnpseph on May 12, 2012 at 12:31 am
I wonder how much of the media empire the Murdochs are going to have to sell.
I wonder how many Newspapers will have one owner in one city giving different opinions and not wall to wall right wing leaning coverage to favour Mr Abbott?
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 12:32 am
Danny Lewis @ 5. I’ve just come back and read this, and the whole thread still needs scanning. But I was very struck by your comment about Kroger and Costello ‘almost play-acting.’ I had the same feeling and I’ll be interested over the next ten pages to see if anyone else agreed with you. But I’ll comment now, anyway.
Earlier this evening I heard an ABC Radio News reader saying that the Kroger/Costello news item had ‘taken the gloss off Tony Abbott’s budget reply!’ Really!!!
If you ask me that stoush didn’t feel at all natural. Is it staged to take attention from a really serious problem within the Libs? Or even just to divert attention from Swann’s star Budget presentation and the general world and some local opinion that he really is the World’s Best Treasurer! If they eventually have a very public reconciliation I’ll be confirmed in that hunch.
by PatriciaWA on May 12, 2012 at 12:32 am
Yes, I was struggling with that too.
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 12:32 am
That was 53-47 at the end of about 12 years and volatility in the polls.
We have 59-41 at the end of 3 years and no volatility in the polls.
Unexpected win in Victoria and historic landslides in NSW and Queensland (the entire ALP MPs fitting into a big sedan is pretty scary stuff).
Things certainly look good at the moment.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 12:32 am
@GhostWhoVotes Ghost, that’s OK then ALP Collective Leadership 52 to Rudd 48. Next! #auspol
Democracy Rules OK
by The Finnigans on May 12, 2012 at 12:32 am
@BBS/606
Return of the Costello ? to Upset the Ranks!
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 12:33 am
The Thomson grenade has been used up. There might be a few smouldering rags by the roadside but the bang has gone.
Now, what have you libs got left?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 12:33 am
spur212 @ 608
Good to see at least one other ALP supporter capable of reading a poll and drawing reasonable conclusions.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 12:33 am
Blackburn.
The public are starting to get heartily sick of the hypocrisy of the libs on this matter. Especially when things such as Abbotts sexual assault charge surfaces.
They are starting to realise the libs are full of bull on this matter and understand that Thomson is entitled to the presumption of innocence.
by Henry on May 12, 2012 at 12:34 am
Bemused 600 you genuinely think we are marching to ‘oblivion’. You are quite entitled to that view. I happen to disagree with you. Time will no do doubt tell who has the better judgement.
by Rossmore on May 12, 2012 at 12:34 am
@Mod Lib/621
With things happening in VIC i doubt they would win VIC, also NSW is 3 years away and QLD 4 years away (although looking less here for QLD unless newman screws up totally).
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 12:35 am
These are dark, dark polling days. Bleak stuff indeed.
Even Abbott’s approaching parity on approval/ disapproval. Horrendous.
Nothing for it but to keep up the good fight. All there is to it.
by Burgey on May 12, 2012 at 12:35 am
Agree ML but I have this down deep feeling that while Abbott is LOTO that the next election is not out of reach for Labor.
by davidwh on May 12, 2012 at 12:36 am
How about the fact that every single time the ALP win a vote on the floor of the house, the media report it along the lines “Gillard gets x through with the support of Thomson: an ex ALP MP who remains under a cloud of allegations…..”.
Gillard has never managed to don the mantle of Prime Ministerial authority. This will not help…
Thomson is likely to stay around and keep supporting the ALP. That could keep Gillard alive for a few more months or a year, but the point is, that is actually the best possible outcome for the Liberal Party!
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 12:37 am
bbs and henry
Most in the public do not pay attention to that. What they see is Reith Phone card, Slipper cabcharge, Thomson credit card.
The mud sticks alright. It sticks to politicians in general including Gillard and Abbott.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 12:37 am
This is extremely depressing. You can go on about the media, but the ALP simply don’t understand how to communicate or how to fight.
This class war game would be great if it was attached to an overall critique of the Liberal Party, but it isn’t. It just looks desperate.
Abbott parades around saying he’s against taxes and beauacracy yet he lauds the GST and his Paid Parental Leave Tax. What do the ALP do? “His policies lack detail and have a black hole? … WHO CARES? It’s the ideology you’ve got to poke a hole in, not the policy detail
And here’s the other thing, this business about the fair go is a load of nonsense. If you want to beat someone like Abbott, you take them on from their view of the world, not yours. Nothing pains me more than to see the left refer to Abbott as a neoliberal/believer in the free market. Nothing is further from the truth. Peter Costello does a better job critiquing Abbott than the ALP. It’s very deppressing
by spur212 on May 12, 2012 at 12:38 am
spur
The class warfare thing will not be in this poll. It happened after the budget. That is mainly today. There was some stuff on electronic last night.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 12:39 am
Michelle Grattan reports that Neilsen is showing 54-46 ALP lead in Victoria – if that is the case things must be seriously grim elsewhere.
by blackburnpseph on May 12, 2012 at 12:40 am
Mod Lib
ROFL
You admitted it, Abbott relies on a propaganda campaign run by the media. A Liberal admits it, finally.
There must be a double rainbow somewhere.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 12:42 am
@BBS/635
Yes Baillieu is on the downhill.
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 12:42 am
Brookes calling the press misogynist.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 12:42 am
Poor, ikky, Bekky!
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 12:42 am
O dear
http://www.france24.com/en/20120509-diplomatic-headache-unmarried-hollande
by mexicanbeemer on May 12, 2012 at 12:43 am
spur212 @ 633
BINGO!!!
Or put another way, you have to have a narrative, a simple story to tell as to what you are on about and why that is the best option.
Lots of policy detail is just eye glazing to most to the electorate and doesn’t cut through.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 12:43 am
Duck,
Makes me want to cry
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 12:44 am
Puff:
Nothing of the sort.
The media criticising the government is not part of some giant conspiracy.
Its been happening for as long as I can remember…
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 12:44 am
628
Queensland still has 3 year terms. It would require a referendum to change.
by Tom the first and best on May 12, 2012 at 12:44 am
@bemused/641
Jobs Jobs Jobs.
I’ve been saying this, last couple of days.
Easy – short – and to the point.
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 12:45 am
Too late to back pedal, ML.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 12:45 am
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 12:45 am
Zoidlord
They are the Neilsen federal figures in Victoria
by blackburnpseph on May 12, 2012 at 12:45 am
Rebekah: “It’s been a difficult year”
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 12:46 am