Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The otherstaes are on time lag.
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:24 am
my say
Ko Ko to kids will mean cocoa pops which is the monkey
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:24 am
William was right.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 10:25 am
O god here we go
Do t get sucked in ,
Ignore ignore, love those two words sou nd like dr who
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:25 am
Michael Gordon in the Age puts it fairly, I think. Good article. Not optimistic, but summarises all the problems.
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/class-act-20120511-1yiex.html
by lizzie on May 12, 2012 at 10:26 am
Yes guytuar,
So a monkey ona stick then ,
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:26 am
Doyley
The govt are setting down the foundation of a clean energy program, NBN, NDIS, ated care reforms, skills package, and mining tax to be redistributed in the economy etc. Do the public see the narrative and the foundations being out down. I would say NO.
They only hear about carbon tax, lies, bad govt, Rudd, Thomson, And Slipper (well that has gone quiet and we all know why).
The govt needs to keep on keeping on. Any changes now, would spell disaster.
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
Mod LIb
Two Words. Leveson Inquiry.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
Slipper stick
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
Just popped in before I go out again. Can’t see where this one was linked, so hope a little bit of good news
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/class-act-20120511-1yiex.html
by mari on May 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
The correct term in pyschology is
Denial, denial, denial.
Can you guys see the pyramids from where you are?
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
Slipperery stick,/ not slipper
Correction
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:27 am
Lol good to see mod lib has arrived to debate
by Meguire Bob on May 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
No real surprises in the polls – they are still pretty ordinary and likely to stay that way until at least September-November I would think.
I am amazed they are still holding as good/bad as they are.
Again, it is the case of the missing 8%.
Out there in voter land is some 8% of an electorate who call themselves Labor voters but have accepted – I think – “It’s all Julia’s fault” and she is obviously the Wicked Witch. (boo!)
Two especially rough patches are the male vote which seems poor for the PM, while Queensland seems to be going its merry self-destruct way.
Victoria is a very bright spot and I suspect SA and Tassie are not too bad.
NSW is the key.
Strangely in WA, Barnett gets a belt in today’s West about electricity costs – try as he may to off load this onto the Fed and the CT – while on local 7.30 Report, the “We is being robbed by the East” over the GST got a belting as well.
However, even on a good day, 5/15 is the best Labor could expect here.
The conundrum is the perception.
No matter how many times the good news is in the face of the punters (especially the errant 8%) and no matter how many times the stupidity of Abbott and the coalition are shown up, the perception exists of some kind of inept government.
Clearly the Oz electorate is not coping well with the cards it dealt itself in 2010. I thought we were more mature than this, but perhaps not.
It is a pity about Slipper and Thompson as these two have really muddied the waters.
In the Thompson case I haven’t a clue where the truth lies.
In the case of Slipper, Labor bought into this themselves and just have to wear it.
What to do?
Time is of the essence.
Just so many things in Labor’s policies are coming good and will stick – the NBN, MRRT are just two of the biggies. The CT is through and needs time to bed in, hence my sooth-saying about September being some kind of “think about it” time.
It is just so frustrating to be able to easily show how well the country is being government but the negativity getting most air play.
JG is doing a great job, but sometimes I wonder if the sheer avalanche of negativity just becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy?
The PM is a smart cookie and a determined one. However, she is also a political animal and she will best recognise if she can see it through or not to August 2013.
If she alone, decides that she has had a gut-full and decides to go – Rudd, for Labor – palatable or not for some, is the only option after her.
I say this for three reasons.
Firstly, the “electorate” will feel vindicated that Hard Done By Harry “gets a fair go”.
Secondly, the conservatives will not be able to crow about “seeing off” two PMs – and this would be a chant devastating the sitting Labor members.
Thirdly, there is no other who could lead Labor to victory in 2013.
Now, whether, at the end of the day, the Indies will buy it or Rudd back would be acceptable to many of the Gillard loyalists or whether at the end of the day, it will make any difference come 2013, is another matter.
The conservatives keep going on about there being “Nothing wrong with Australia a change of government will not fix” though it may well be a change of government to a Rudd led party.
I sense the electorate felt, in 2011, it was they, not the party, who should have decided Rudd’s fate at an election, for good or bad, and they still wish to operate their option.
At the end of the day it may not matter and they could give St Kev the axe anyway.
by Tricot on May 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
In regards to Craig Thomson, I suggest watching this clip of Geoffrey Robertson on QandA a few weeks ago.
The ALP did exactly what he said and yet the political heat is still on it (won’t be helped by his interview today with Laurie Oakes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fplHwc3jkI
by spur212 on May 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
And on that, at Pure Poison…
When’s the press gallery going to hold Abbott’s feet to the fire?. Jeremy Sear, to the media harlots:
by Cuppa on May 12, 2012 at 10:28 am
Of course. The Jiz on Julia Brigade are a bunch of dillpots, the lot of them.
except Victoria, victoria – bbp’s panic is palpable. he he
The Indies are holding firm. The number’s on the floor are fine. Even the media reports about Oaky considering a censure motion against Thomson are misleading. You’ll note that every time they report on it, they never have a shot of Oaky proclaiming such a notion. It’s a media interpretation of what he has said.
Give me optimism over pessimism any day.
btw, thanks for posting those interesting tweeted insights on the strategy of the Thomson interview. Quite informative.
by kezza2 on May 12, 2012 at 10:29 am
my say
For kids yes. For adults KoKo means Lord High Executioner. He who is judge jury and executioner.
Very appropriate for Mr Abbott.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:29 am
NBN Killer for Abbott?
by political animal on May 12, 2012 at 10:30 am
guytaur,
How about simply ‘The Executioner’? Straight and to the point.
by C@tmomma on May 12, 2012 at 10:31 am
a message to the dwindling number of LNP backbenchers who have a conscience……and Laura Tingle and George M.
by Ian on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 am
Robertson said “suspend him immediately from the party”. It took the ALP 3 years, that is essentially the problem.
A bandaid now is a bit late, the patient has exsanguinated.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 am
At TurnLeft2013
Response To The Budget – Comedy Gold from the Left and Right
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/2012/05/11/response-to-the-budget-comedy-gold-from-the-left-and-right/
by Cuppa on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 am
kezza2
No worries!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 am
Ballieu is going a good job for Labor in Vic and BOF is having a go in NSW. He’s had a few Ministers in trouble and staffers aren’t left out either.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ministers-aide-quits-over-allegations-of-electoral-funding-breaches-20120511-1yi4w.html
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 10:33 am
Morning All
Missed the Thomson interview, doesn’t sound like it went well though – maybe someone should give him a smaller shovel
Maybe the one from out the front of Kathy Jackson’s house
Won’t how much trouble he is in all come down to what the rules were around use of the credit cards/ expense accounts though??? If there were no rules, he hasn’t broken any. Morally and politically terrible though and looks like it will just go on and on
Polls are shockers – just need to sit tough now though, get through 1 July and the get the carbon tax started. See where they are at in September and work out what to do from there.
Black Caviar going for 21 straight today in Adelaide – that should cheer everyone up
by womble on May 12, 2012 at 10:33 am
SA is 57-43 to the Coalition: A 10% swing.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 10:34 am
Bonge is definitely looking for a Murdoch job – fancy linking anything this bloke writes
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 10:35 am
Jesus bloody wept.
Anyone who doesn’t believe that Thomson COULD have been set up are either fools or have been living in la la land. And, isn’t it a good thing we no longer have the death penalty and hanging by lynch mobs is no longer acceptable.
There are a million books written on criminal cases from murder through to conspiracy,fraud and spying. There are just as many movies and TV shows based on those ‘real’ cases and the reality of how victims have been well and truely stitched up to bring about a guilty verdict. It amazes me that people will declare a person guilty on evidence that is flimsy, incomplete or spurious.
by janice2 on May 12, 2012 at 10:35 am
The only vulnerable seats for Labor in VIC would be Corangamite and La Trobe, if it’s true that Labor is travelling much better there than elsewhere.
The black spot remains QLD – Labor could lose every seat in the state.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 12, 2012 at 10:36 am
The NBN will be actually available to very few people before the next election – whenever it is held.
Of the few who will have it, many will be in regional (non ALP) electorates anyway.
The NBN will not be a killer for Abbott. It is not a ‘turning point’. It will not even be an issue.
There is only one issue – the backstabbing, deceitful, useless Gillard.
by Fargo61 on May 12, 2012 at 10:36 am
catmomma
KoKo is from Gilbert and Sullivan Lord High Executioner. It is good as it gets under the skin of conservatives.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:37 am
Note that just about every lower house MP in QLD who’d lose their seat based on the current polling voted for Gillard, no doubt under pressure from Ludwig to tow the AMWU line.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 12, 2012 at 10:37 am
@Liyana 787 –
Australia already has a soft right political party – The ALP.
by Nemspy on May 12, 2012 at 10:38 am
Media Fail.
Still not asking why Abbott has not suspended PUff Adder, Laming and others from party?
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:39 am
I think that KAOS set up Thomson. This has the fingerprints of Ziegfried all over it.
Obviously Thomson was just too busy to check the statements at the time.
by Fargo61 on May 12, 2012 at 10:40 am
janice2,
No doubt Group think makes Thomson guilty of being unpopular atm.
by Greensborough Growler on May 12, 2012 at 10:41 am
BH
Can Do felt left out. He made up for it. Got his Police Minister kicked out a few weeks in.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:42 am
Well, I was wrong again. Happening more and more. I predicted that there would be no budget bounce and I was wRONg. The Coalition has clearly had a budget bounce.
Of course the MSM should have done analyses along the lines of Mr Koukoulis which demonstrated the full range and depth of Mr Abbott’s lying about matters economical.
But the MSM did not. Tant pis. A curse on all their houses.
The Coalition will get in. It will trash credible AGW action. It will speed up our extinction event with barely restrained development. It will bastardise the NBN. It will piss mining boom pt 2 against the wall. It will look after its rich mates. It will feed the xenophobe hyenas their symbolic victims. It will further entrench social inequality. It will build an even ‘bigger’ big unsustainable Australia. Australia will be lead by a sociopath for whom nothing is too low to maintain power.
Sigh.
by Boerwar on May 12, 2012 at 10:42 am
IMHO, Mr Thomson said enough to Mr Oakes to at least give parliament pause. I predict a censure motion and nothing more.
But the immense political damage has already been done. And will continue to be done.
by Boerwar on May 12, 2012 at 10:44 am
Dear Lord High Executioner,
Time to give Gillard a short sharp shock…
by Fargo61 on May 12, 2012 at 10:44 am
TLM
The polling is a disaster because it appears to be breaking trend in the wRONg direction.
by Boerwar on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 am
Did we ever clear up what line was crossed and when it was crossed?
by Fargo61 on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 am
A reminder of where the AFR is doing some good.
Continuing its stories on Murdoch
http://www.afr.com/p/national/piracy_questions_unanswered_Ww3dZDYkFQVGG7wE9aKQBM
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:46 am
Latika Bourke @latikambourke
AFR’s Geoff Kitney – Tony Abbott’s speech was ‘one of the most vacuous budget reply speeches ever delivered’ http://latika.me/JH8FQF
by Greensborough Growler on May 12, 2012 at 10:46 am
Mari link was very good
See the bit about older voters
Now where are the young mobiile uses, no where to be seen , people under 18 th no where
I
Pensioners sad, well they dont know about the compensation, in pocket, this may be could of been in the budget, for pr reasons
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:46 am
Not only that, in the UK, Coulson was openly taunting and scoffing about claims they had been involved in the very practices now being comprehensively exposed in great detail.
I recall seeing an interview with him demanding that *produced* be produced.
by dave on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 am
Fargo61
Patience, you will find out soon enough
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 am
Fargo
KoKo tried that. He failed to get the crossbenches to cross the floor and bring down the government. Again.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 am