Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Tom Hawkins
mari is waiting to play at volume 11 this song at Rupes ” Untergang” .It be good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3TUWU_yg4s
by poroti on May 15, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Tom Hawkins
mari is waiting to play at volume 11 this song at Rupes ” Untergang” .It be good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3TUWU_yg4s
by poroti on May 15, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Not the local abc guytuar
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:25 pm
What’s left? Looks fat in a polo shirt and missed the boat trip?
by joe2 on May 15, 2012 at 7:26 pm
[poroti
Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
mari
Ah Poroti glad you are here, getting closer to the old B isn’t it, now RebekahB has been charged, the joy of it all.
Ah yes “the joy of it all” … “Ode to Joy” ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WnOjq7A_U0
Yes my favourite one, building up to Hallelujah me thinks
Just had a phone call from Athens, it is shocking over there, the friend is coming out to the island where I am going Milos to have a week with me, to try and get away from Athens only worry is strikes on the ferries. I am flying out and back to the island so hope Olympic and airport keep going
by mari on May 15, 2012 at 7:26 pm
How many years of lies and obfuscations have we suffered from Brooks and Co? They thought they were untouchable with their contacts. It took brave Journos from the Guardian to see it through.
Can you imagine how often those Journos would have been told – there’s nothing in this, drop it.
Patience dear friends. A little saga is unfolding before our eyes with Aussie players of the same sneaky, low calibre. Its a shame that its taking the blogosphere to lead the charge and not players from the MSM.
Oh for a Guardian or an Independent!
by hairy nose on May 15, 2012 at 7:27 pm
But i bet you all never saw the story of computerised milking
True the dairy farmer now sleep in
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Rua
dunno. He is distressed by what happened allegedly, and it has diminished the safe workplace he entitled to under the FWA. So sue for “offence, humiliation, anxiety and stress, dislocation to life ….”
Bizzare-Gate
by sprocket_ on May 15, 2012 at 7:28 pm
(hairy nose Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 7:27 pm | Permalink
How many years of lies and obfuscations have we suffered from Brooks and Co? They thought they were untouchable with their contacts. It took brave Journos from the Guardian to see it through.)
I am reading dial m for murdoch, the first 10 pages made so sad for tom watson
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Guess that is me no – my daughter’s husband sister is married to a Gordon and my friend who I visit over there is also a Gordon. all interconnected of course, I remember what you sent me re NZ scottish clans
by mari on May 15, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Mari greece on 7 30
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:31 pm
mari
Yep and in order to save the Seppo, German and French banskers we have this..
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2143237/Mothers-forced-sell-children–human-toll-Euro-meltdown.html#ixzz1uvfjl9k6
by poroti on May 15, 2012 at 7:32 pm
my say
Yes, I was just watching the robots milking.
So different to the days of my parents hand-milking while they sang to the cows.
by lizzie on May 15, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Gaytaur 960
Actually word is that a number of their top journalist have quit because of biased reporting re Libya & Syria. Seems the hand of the Sheik is a very heavy one. Stan Grant is back at SBS.
Newspapers = Propaganda – no matter who runs them.
by JohD on May 15, 2012 at 7:35 pm
New post at The Daily Derp
Musical Tributes To Tony Abbott
by Dan Gulberry on May 15, 2012 at 7:39 pm
I think it says a lot about the Ashby claims is that the media/person representing Ashby is a small yapping dog on twitter. All class.
http://twitter.com/#!/antmac9
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 7:39 pm
johD
Ahh. Well my comment still applies in regard to Al Jazeera doing UK, US and Australian stories.
by guytaur on May 15, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Good evening all.
If there’s no sexual harrassment claim, then how can he claim a diminished safe workplace?
This is truly odd.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 7:42 pm
mari
I ask as General Duncan Cameron,a Crimean War hero , was in charge of the Gate Pa battle. Especially as in this battle Kiwis were killing Australians and vice versa. An interesting point was that the 1860′s battle featured artilliery bombardement not equalled until WWI that and the trenches that were so important. Youse guys lost
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~Sxmitch/Battle.html
Youtube featuring a yank doing worlds worst maori pronounciation of the battle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyeCbn8u0og
by poroti on May 15, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Gosh lizzie was it on,
My dad millked 10 cows by hand before school, so did his other three sisters,
The girls on the way to school pulled the vates of milk up to te train platform , goin g to
launceston,
My cousins, did similar only with milking machines, now their children will be able to sleep past 5 am
Changing world
And for any one who knows not much about cows, they know when they need to be milked
And u can hear them making their way to the sheds all on their own
My cousin told me to watch as there is a pecking order, he new all 150 of them and which ones wouid take the lead
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Let us all remember that Rebekah Brookes is innocent until proven guilty and that if we all start yelling “Burn the Witch of Wapping” that we would be very, very naughty.
by Diogenes on May 15, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Gosh lizzie was it on,
My dad millked 10 cows by hand before school, so did his other three sisters,
The girls on the way to school pulled the vates of milk up to te train platform , goin g to
launceston,…
My cousins, did similar only with milking machines, now their children will be able to sleep past 5 am
Changing world
And for any one who knows not much about cows, they know when they need to be milked
And u can hear them making their way to the sheds all on their own
My cousin told me to watch as there is a pecking order, he new all 150 of them and which ones wouid take the lead
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:44 pm
How long will they need lawyers? Robots will soon be available to do their milking.
by joe2 on May 15, 2012 at 7:44 pm
How is ulman doing interviewing mr henry
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Ken Henry basically has just called the critics of Stipac 1 & 2 fuckwits – you got to shove the moneys out of the door, not matter what
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 7:46 pm
you just did, i saw ya!
by joe2 on May 15, 2012 at 7:46 pm
joe 2
by lizzie on May 15, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Dan Gulberry
When it comes to Tones and the Coalition it is “I’m walking backwards for Christmas” must be up there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZhS0tNZSEo
by poroti on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Ulman ask , have we wasted the mining boom
‘M m, funny question,
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Just had a couple of phone calls so missed Greece on 7.30, would have broken my vow not to watch it, also just read the article on greece from the Daily Mail, breaks my heart. Don’t think the islands are as bad but will see I guess. Glad I am not going into Athens where we used to stay around the Omonia Sq I was warned not to stay there anymore it is too dangerous, so a night at a hotel near the airport going in and coming out fly straight out to Heathrow and Edinburgh, a few hours wait at the airport
BTW did you see the age of the widow, in the article 30 and children 14,13,12
by mari on May 15, 2012 at 7:49 pm
@CraigEmersonMP @supercededman1 @bushfirebill Emmo, Ken Henry has just given Labor Management of GFC a solid gold endorsement
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 7:49 pm
confessions
Have not seen where the sexual harreassment has been dropped,only cabcharge?
by Schnappi on May 15, 2012 at 7:49 pm
imacca @892
sprocket_ @ 991
Have there been any questions raised in the MSM that this might be an example of cheque book journalism?
by Laocoon on May 15, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Finny,
Wonder how JoHo and Co will digest that interview with Ken Henry.
by janice2 on May 15, 2012 at 7:50 pm
(Stipac )& 2 fuckwit
Whats stipac
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Ashby’s claim has dropped all reference to Slipper’s supposed prior activities, it still claims Ashby was subject to harassment.
But without the (alleged) previous behavior, and Ashby never going through the proper channels, it’s looking pretty weak.
by ShiftyPhil on May 15, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Lizzie
Not sure what motivated it – Revenue probably, but our good friend Campbell Newman as Mayor of Brisbane, had a blitz on jaywalking. I know at least two people fined.
by daretotread on May 15, 2012 at 7:53 pm
My say,
Stimulus packages that saved us from going down the gurgler in the GFC.
by janice2 on May 15, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Its clear that Ashby’s PR firm has given another exclusive to News. Lodged at 4.30. Substantial part is dropping the cabcharges claim. PR claim is we intend to substantially widen the claim.
Daily Tele Story : More claims against Slipper.
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 7:54 pm
my say, stipac = Stimulus Package like BER, Pink Batts, $800 cash splash etc
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 7:55 pm
poroti
Close. If the song was called “I’m walking backwards for ever” it would’ve been more appropriate
by Dan Gulberry on May 15, 2012 at 7:56 pm
poroti
Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
mari
I ask as General Duncan Cameron,a Crimean War hero , was in charge of the Gate Pa battle. Especially as in this battle Kiwis were killing Australians and vice versa. An interesting point was that the 1860′s battle featured artilliery bombardement not equalled until WWI that and the trenches that were so important. Youse guys lost
A Naval Brigade of 429 officers and men from a flotilla of Australia Squadron ships including HMS Curacoa, Esk, Falcon, Harrier and Miranda had also been assembled under Commodore Sir William Wiseman .
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~Sxmitch/Battle.html
Glad I have nothing to do with him, not very nice, I am staying on Thursday with friends in Coffs Harbour, he is Maori so will ask him about it, they are an amazing race the Maori, I was impressed with the treaty they signed with Queen Victoria
by mari on May 15, 2012 at 7:58 pm
It is also a credit to the Gang of 4 (Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Tanner) they took the hard GFC decisions knowing NO political paybacks
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Ashby is walking a seriously fine line here. Just like the women who accused Commbank of sexual harrassment via a media campaign and ended up getting pinged with $5 mill in costs.
Ultimately it comes to a judge on Friday. A judge will see through all the shit.
Was this a case where Ashby was advised (badly) that Slipper and the government would want a quick settlement and would pull out the chequebook?
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Dolphin
But what about Henry’s comments on Rudd FURTHER ADVANCED than THE WHOLE BLOODY TREASURY. Praise indeed. Henry indicated that he was shocked and ashamed at how far Rudd was ahead of them, the finest economists in Australia
Rudd I think was just TOO SMART for Australian politicians and journos. NOT THE PUBLIC oddly enough
by daretotread on May 15, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Sounds like Ashby has been leaned on to omit anything that could blow back on Abbott and co – ie possibly to compel them to give evidence about what they knew vis a vis 2002.
I would think that strongly suggests the Liberal Party is concerned that this action might prove that major Liberal Party players knew plenty but didn’t act when then should have OR major Liberal Party players have realised that, in order for him to sustain his claim, he would have to disclose WHERE he received the information regarding 2002, which might implicate said major Liberal Party players who are currently using the Schultz defence.
Anyone who, even for a second, thought this was not being masterminded by the Liberal Party need to think again.
by Danny Lewis on May 15, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Paul Howes continues to kick goals.
by Diogenes on May 15, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Geez Ashby was on $116K salary and $28k expenses.
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Schnappi:
I am just going off PB comments.
It does look as though his case is considerably weaker than what had been reported in the past.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:01 pm
daretotread
The newly hatched L & NP Premiers all seem to be going the tough road against minor crimes.
Big stuff? Not so much.
by lizzie on May 15, 2012 at 8:01 pm