Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Daretoread
Stimpac, the size and speed of it was all Rudd. More than what Swan wanted to do. More than what Henry wanted to do.
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Rudd’s debasing of Cabinet govt and ultimately doing himself out of a job showed he wasn’t very smart in the end.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:04 pm
good one by the Kouk
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:05 pm
“Looks fat in a polo shirt” is no longer in the claim.
I think pretty much everything else is there.
1. Had a massage.
2. Showered with the door open
3. Asked Ashby why he didn’t shower with the door open
4. Asked Ashby general question re male-male sex
5. Twinks or Bears?
6. Very vague questions via text re “being closer”
7. Somebody else called Ashby a “nice twink”
8. Arm touch
9. “Can I kiss you both” (though the reference to there being a witness is gone)
And the adverse behaviour:
1. Communication now via Tim Knapp
2. No boat trip
This apparently caused Ashby distress, anxiety and humiliation.
To my untrained eye, maybe the massage is relevant. And maybe the boat trip constitutes something adverse. But it’s very, very mild stuff. According to that claim Slipper never even made a pass at Ashby.
by Aguirre on May 15, 2012 at 8:05 pm
I dont mind who got credit for what
As libs trying to convince if never happened
Now public that where watching have been reminded it did
Go wayne
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 8:05 pm
confessions
Was not having a go but have seen this;
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-15/slipper-staffer-files-court-claim/4013028
by Schnappi on May 15, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Will Abbott do the decent, moral thing and stand aside while these matters are dealt with?
Will the coalition continue to accept the ‘tainted’ vote of Tony Abbott while these matters are being dealt with?
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Aguirre
Are there any witnesses for any of it?
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 8:07 pm
I like to think it had nothing to do with the budget but a lot to do with the population in general getting fed up with the crap coming from the Liberals.
How does it go: You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time. Hopefully time is running out for Abbot.
by fredn on May 15, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Aguirre:
Yes, it’s all very bizarre.
Schnappi:
Thanks for that.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:10 pm
What I couldn’t get over was he not knowing that Gillard had done him a favor by giving him the FM position. He just threw it away. What does he do now, sulk on the back bench because the same person made sure he would never darken her door again.
by fredn on May 15, 2012 at 8:10 pm
@susannahjones1 @supercededman1 @craigemersonmp Nobody questions Rudd’s contribution to saving OZ from GFC. Grow up
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 8:10 pm
http://thehoopla.com.au/hillary-clintons-nakedbrave-face/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=May+15+The+Hoopla&utm_content=May+15+The+Hoopla+CID_20f60151459c759ae11ac58dc36fbeb0&utm_source=Email+marketing+software
Imagine if julia did this, the oress she eouod have to put up with
i do admire hillary
by my say on May 15, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Ken Henry on 7.30 has said that the Rudd/Swan stimulus 1 & 2 SAVED Australia from recession. It was essential to get money moving into the economy as soon as possible at that time.
So what was the Coalition response to the action needed for Australia to avoid a recession from the GFC?
Slow moving and recurring tax cuts. Stupid bastards, they wasted a mining boom and had they won the 2007 election the country would have been much, much worse off.
I remember Chris Richards from Access Economics at the time declaring with near certainty that Australia would enter into a recession and that unemployment would have an 8 in front of it.
Most importantly of all the bookmakers were betting $1.30 that we would enter into a recession.
Of course, history shows that the Labor Party SAVED Australia from a recession and saved jobs.
So what was the reward to the Labor Party for their good work?
Pink Batts, School Halls, Debt and Deficit with 49.88% of the vote to Tony Abbott.
What an absolute disgrace. Who do you blame?
I blame News Ltd, 2GB, Sky News, Fairfax, Channels 7 & 9, their ABC, in fact all the mainstream media, for picking sides in politics for their own disgusting selfish interests.
All media laws must be changed in the name of justice and democracy.
It’s Time!
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Hey, settle down, folks. We don’t want Abbott to retire before the end of the race (the election). We want him to stagger up to the finishing line, sore and weary, battle-scarred and exhausted. We don’t want a new, fresh competitor from the exchange bench.
by lizzie on May 15, 2012 at 8:14 pm
He whiteanted the PM and his own colleagues, providing constant fodder for our debased msm to bash the govt with.
Yes as PM he did some great things, but in time I believe his treachery and self indulgence will ultimately overshadow all the good things he did.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Wonder who that might be?
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:16 pm
lizzie:
Just enjoying the way karma has come back to bite Abbott on his rear end!
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:16 pm
I wonder how many of the economists (sic) will take any notice of Ken Henry.
by lizzie on May 15, 2012 at 8:17 pm
If Abbott is being sued for defamation he MUST stand down.
No ifs, no buts, Abbott must go!
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Confessions
You are confusing two aspects of “smart” I meant it in the intellectual sense, not the street smart sense.
Serious issue and question for Confessions. What if the REAL problem with Rudd is that he is just smarter and harder working than nearly all the rest. He did not listen because he had already (several years if Henry is to be believed) though about the issues, identified the problems and rulled options out or in. When the hapless Ministers and their even more hapless public servant rock up with their latest brilliant idea, the indefatiguable and smart Rudd (with out INTENDING to be dismissive and rude) simply ignored or passed over their ideas because he has ALREADY worked them out for himself and found not working.
Believe it or not it is a very real hazard of being too smart (SMART ALEC if you like). People appear not to be listening because they have already jumped ahead. As a scientist I am sure you have met very many people like that – Brains whirring miles ahead of everyone else
The problem that Gillard has is that unlike immediate colleagues, Rudd’s whizzing brain made them feel safe and well led. At the very heart of Gillard’s difficulty lies this inconvenient truth. Rudd is exceptionally smart and there is almost no one in his league – Roxon is very smart but process driven , (not a lateral thinker I suspect), Emerson is very smart but fairly ideologically narrow (he does have an excellent brain), Combet may be the real goods but we see little of him to judge.
And before you all pen abuse – NONE of the Libs are in their league – Turnbull being the closest.
Perhaps the other thing is that Rudd combines his smart with phenomenally hard work
by daretotread on May 15, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Was going to make some points on the new Ashby claim, except Aguirre beat me to all but one of them.
The “Looking for a random root LOL” reference (from Ashby) is also gone. Ashby has sanitized that SMS conversation to make it look like he was a babe in the woods.
That’s really all we need to know to realize this is purely political.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Gee twitter has gone berserk over Ken Henry’s comments
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Lizzie all economists that are will payed in their field agree with Ken Henry BUT the media kept giving us Pink Batts, School Halls, Waste and Mismanagement, and Debt and Deficit.
Bastards!
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Bali, the Lost Paradise. I refuse to go there again.
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Clive Palmer.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 8:23 pm
BB
Thr AFP are continuing with their investigations. what do these investigations comprise? They could well be investigating claims made by Slipper against Ashby.
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Fredn
Jeebus wept
There was pretty solid evidence that Gillard was going to DUMP him as Foreign minister – because with Slipper in the bag she thought she did not need his vote – ie any threat of quitting was negated. Rudd jumped before being pushed. in hind site a bad move but not as silly as it might have seemed.
Forget favours. Rudd and Wilkie had leverage UNTIL the Slipper advent.
You are a smart and generally reasonable poster. try to be objective.
by daretotread on May 15, 2012 at 8:24 pm
BB
Urger. Mal Brough
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Yes, it’s not as if it will not all be put in context by the defence.
by fredn on May 15, 2012 at 8:25 pm
UK Housing market just followed me on twitter,wonder how the found me or wonder if some catch with that type of organisation.
by Schnappi on May 15, 2012 at 8:25 pm
No one. He’s the PM‘s advisor and look at how badly the economy is going!
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Towards the end I agree, but if he had behaved himself I doubt it would have come to that. Why should the PM put up with such shit when she clearly had the numbers to deal with it.
by fredn on May 15, 2012 at 8:28 pm
BB 1075 I’d suggest it is Gina Reinhart – she flew Barnaby and Julie Bishop to India last year on her private jet for a wedding…..
by Rossmore on May 15, 2012 at 8:28 pm
DTR:
Rudd spent too much time schmoozing his mates in the press gallery and not enough time making the case to the public for either the stimpac, or the broader reforms his govt was implementing.
Rudd spent too little time consulting his own Cabinet and his own Caucus, presumably preferring a sanitised Caucus he felt he could railroad with his own agenda.
Rudd spent too much time whiteanting his own leader and his own colleagues, and not enough time playing by the team rules.
This is the height of egoism. ‘Dumber’ people by your standards have been far more successful in parliamentary leadership roles than Rudd – John Howard for eg. The difference is that they recognised they were part of a bigger team, and paid their respects to their colleagues accordingly. Rudd never learnt this, and hence he is where he is.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:28 pm
In many ways the Ashby claims have served their purpose: Slipper is out of the Chair, and effectively sidelined. The coalition’s numbers on the floor of the House are increased with the embrace of Crook, whereas Labor’s are diminished with Burke having to act as Speaker.
It’s political alright. I wish people would make more of an issue about ABbott being sued, and applying the same standards to him as he applied to Slipper and Thomson. Fair’s fair.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:30 pm
DL:
Sounds about right.
Of course, the kicker to this is that the stuff they had to take out was the stuff that made the case viable. Establishing Slipper’s character is central to making the recent stuff look bad. Without it, all of his behaviour looks relatively benign.
Not surprising the cabcharge stuff is gone. It served its purpose by getting the AFP involved – it doesn’t need to form part of the civil claim any more.
by Aguirre on May 15, 2012 at 8:30 pm
One thing we can bw certain of. There ill be no Rudd comeback. Last nights Newspoll put paid to that
by guytaur on May 15, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Was it Barnaby who flew to India in Gina’s private jet for a wedding or a party or something?
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Rossmore:
Snap.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Can we move on from Rudd good/bad or do I need to grab a beer to relieve the torture from reading it all like the stillionth time!
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:33 pm
I notice the flurry of news items on Abbot’s past antics ….. I see a great Get Up campaign during the next election highlighting said antics….
by Rossmore on May 15, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Yup, and then fall just short and have his muscles melt.
by imacca on May 15, 2012 at 8:33 pm
I love that everytime there is a spontaneous outburst of Rudd love (this time by ken Henry and then the twitterati) this place goes into rearguard action.
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Rossmore
Also barnaby wrote to ginas children and suggested they drop the court case.
by Schnappi on May 15, 2012 at 8:34 pm
And in the end, if the government doesn’t fall, it all amounts to a hill of beans.
They way I see it, the government has put in place pretty much their entire agenda, they now have 15 months to turn the opposition into a quivering mess.
by fredn on May 15, 2012 at 8:34 pm
It looks like the Painful Pavlovian Doggys have now infiltrated Twittersphere
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/local-shoppers-in-crisis-mode-20120515-1ynz9.html#ixzz1uudIhzmW
And it wasn’t just Abbott and his merry band of wreckers. Bludgers will recall Gerard Harvey and that dope from David Jones actively talking-down the economy several months ago in an effort to attack the Government.
It seems their comments found a mark and that a scared consumer population is now using whatever spare cash they have to pay off the mortgage earlier or to stuff under the mattress for a rainy day, rather than using it to buy stuff.
They’re simply reaping what they sewed.
Tough Tits for them I say.
by smithe on May 15, 2012 at 8:36 pm
We could have a sweep on When Thomas Pain is going to arrive??
by imacca on May 15, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Yes I’d forgotten about that.
This whole Ashby thing stinks, and typical of our media, the links to Ashby and many on the current coalition front bench have been conveniently forgotten.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:36 pm