Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Centre
Cant believe Ricky and the same squad of origin losers will be representing the great State of New South Wales at origin one
by shellbell on May 15, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Yep
A 52:48 newspoll in Labor’s favor buried Rudd
and a 45:55 newspoll in the coalitions favor secure’s Gillard.
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Also missing from Ashby’s sanitized conversation re. how close he wanted to be, treading on toes etc. is that
(a) Ashby said “All good” in response to Slipper’s proposal of a businesslike relationship,
(b) There is no mention of Ashby saying the massage was OK i.e. “as far as I’ll go” or wtte
(c) there is no mention of the banter about “random roots” FROM Ashby
(d) there is no mention that Slipper suggested Ashby could come along on the Harbour cruise despite their “altercation” the night before
The whole thing has been sanitized from Ashby’s point of view.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 8:37 pm
bg,
No one has ever doubtd Rudd’s leadership regarding the GFC.
It’s his subsequent irrational behaviour and poor decision making that cost him the support of his peers.
by Greensborough Growler on May 15, 2012 at 8:37 pm
fredn:
Well, I wish that they would use the first couple of the next 15 months to demolish Limited News.
by fiona on May 15, 2012 at 8:37 pm
There is also no mention of the “disloyalty” issue… three days before Ashby met Mal Brough.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 8:38 pm
fredn:
Well, I wish that they would use the first couple of the next 15 months to demolish Limited News.
That could really turn the opposition into a quivering mess.
by fiona on May 15, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Rudd did magnificently handling the GFC.
He was defeated by Pink Batts, School Halls, Waste & Mismanagement and Debt and Deficit PROPAGANDA.
It’s happened, move on, it’s in the past, over red rover, the milk has been spilt, the fat lady has sung!
If I read another post on Rudd godd/bad, I’m getting on the treadmil
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:39 pm
BB:
The context has gone from pretty much everything. Though I suspect that might be because the original filed claim wasn’t very well put together. The context for the claims is what comes out when the case is heard. This is just supposed to be a list of claims. It looks like it’s just had the fat stripped off it – and jettisoned some of more ludicrous (and LNP-vetted) stuff.
by Aguirre on May 15, 2012 at 8:40 pm
imacca,
You can have the whole fuckin broom as far as I’m concerned.
by Greensborough Growler on May 15, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Centre:
I’m on my second glass of chardonnay. Grab a beer and help me toast my wildly successful day at work!
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:41 pm
The Govt have obviously told Ashby’s lawyers that the AFP have cleared Slipper on the cab charge allegations, and if Ashby was to pursue this in his statement of claim, the Commonwealth would be seeking costs against him.
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:42 pm
BB
I see you and Elder got stuck into Coorey. What started it?
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 8:43 pm
What happened with your work Connie
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:43 pm
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:45 pm
Who would have thunk that. Rupert’s most trusted person has been charged with perverting the course of justice & destruction of evidence
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 8:45 pm
Evening All
Looks like the LNP, or their lawyers, went through and cleaned up Ashby’s claim – not much left so it hopefully won’t take too long
I hope Slipper has kept all the texts Ashby sent him
Will be interesting to see how this is all reported tomorrow
by womble on May 15, 2012 at 8:47 pm
what is all this ‘what i think of rudd’ talk – what one slight poll shift and rudd is history – does that mean we were secretly entertaining his return yesterday but today it was all a bad dream. PB is like political morphine – induces strangely happy states not felt anyone else (except actu conference) in country. have never heard a lame rudd critique before – a few sharp exchanges of change of leadership – anyway, opinions do not matter, rudd will be next pm and irony of irony will be seen to correct the excesses of JG – now wasn’t that JG correcting excesses of rudd – ah the worms turns and turns
.. back to sleep
by geoffrey on May 15, 2012 at 8:47 pm
The first court document, the originating application, and the Statement of Claim now filed by Ashby are different types of documents.
A Statement of Claim would not normally state conversations etc such that their omission does not meant that aspect of the claim is not being pursued
by shellbell on May 15, 2012 at 8:47 pm
vic,
That’s another George Brandis famous last words.
I sometimes think he is actually trying to undermine Abbott.
by Greensborough Growler on May 15, 2012 at 8:47 pm
It’s the way they talk amongst themselves and ignore other twitterers. Coorey, in particular, strikes me as a real group thinker. He puts on a sort of gruff exterior, a hard man” persona, but really he’s just as much a herd animal as the rest of them.
Anything critical of the government he writes it up luridly. Anything a possible problem for the Coalition, he plays it straight down the line.
He’s read some of my stuff, obviously, because he had some comments to make about it. Good… now at least we know they do indulge in the hated blogosphere on occasion.
Didn’t see Elder’s contribution, though. He must have joined in late.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Centre:
I’ve over-achieved on several fronts: 2 media releases, a communication/PR strategy for a project I’m working on, 2 in house meetings, 3 external relations meetings, written a speech for our CEO, and managed to get in a half hour walk at lunchtime in between meetings!
I’ve earned my drink tonight!
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Vic,
by The Finnigans on May 15, 2012 at 8:50 pm
GG
Amazing. Brandis would have been aware of the defamation case against Abbott. It was reported back in March that there were proceedings on foot.
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:51 pm
the abc panel show (6.30?) was appalling on labor but esp on education – right wing trollopes – anyone who doesn’t like simplified naplan tests (which are btw corruptible and corrupted in terms of how prepared in schools) was post modern illiterate – try telling that to Finns who dont have tests until mid teen years and then have all secondary tests controlled by individual schools and their ‘professional’ and educated teachers. eh? and o yes, they have topped any international education table for last two decades. if any proves that JG is out of her depth in presuming her current role it is her atrocious pontificating role in assuming she knows better than the teacher organisations at all level. shame, julia, and now peter garrett (peter who?)
by geoffrey on May 15, 2012 at 8:51 pm
confessions @ 1065
I’m calling this for what it is: BULLSHIT!
by bemused on May 15, 2012 at 8:51 pm
The Finns
Agreed!
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:52 pm
by Space Kidette on May 15, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Connie I had whole cadbury snack for dinner
I’m geting on the walking machine, I have to stay better looking than Clive Palmer 
Join you for drink in about an hour
by Centre on May 15, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Centre:
Norty having chocolate for dinner!
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 8:55 pm
SK
What is bullshit spin?
by shellbell on May 15, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Ed Husic cleaned up an extremely petulant PvO on the economic management of the country.
by BK on May 15, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Shellbell,
That it is the govt that is trying to have cabcharge claims against Slipper scrapped.
by Space Kidette on May 15, 2012 at 8:57 pm
BK
When did Husic speak to PVO?
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 8:58 pm
vic
It just finished a few minutes ago. I caught the tail end of it. Husic was quite pissed off with PvO actually/
by BK on May 15, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Sk
The SMH reported that the Govt had filed an application to do that very thing
by shellbell on May 15, 2012 at 9:01 pm
BK
What is up with these commentators?
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 9:01 pm
Husic is a regular on the show – does a pretty good job
by womble on May 15, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Can we have a night free of Rudd the hero or villain, just for once please. Each side isn’t going to change their mind so adherents of either view are wasting their breath. Much more interesting stuff to talk about tonight – ashby, Brooks, PMoAs address at the ACTU, abbot defamation case etc
by Rossmore on May 15, 2012 at 9:02 pm
The only salient fact here is that Ashby communicated through his public relations flack, not through his lawyers.
Last I heard, public relations flacks had no standing before the court.
Ashby should be renamed “Ashton”, as in “circus”
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 9:04 pm
SK,
I would have thought the AFP would have sole discretion as to what happens to this case. (cabcharge component only)
by Space Kidette on May 15, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Was a very good speech.
Audio here is anyone interested:
http://australianpolitics.com/2012/05/15/gillard-actu-congress-address.html
by imacca on May 15, 2012 at 9:06 pm
OK PBer’s, will we get wall to wall coverage of Rabbott’s defamation case or dirty revelations about Setka?
by Dee on May 15, 2012 at 9:07 pm
LOL, I am losing the plot. That SK should read Shellbell. Sorry.
by Space Kidette on May 15, 2012 at 9:07 pm
by Dee on May 15, 2012 at 9:09 pm
SK
AFP does not have control over the civil case and any allegations about cab usage.
The reason advanced for its withdrawal is specious. There is no rule that civil proceedings cannot be advanced at the same time as criminal investigations.
by shellbell on May 15, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Sorry I missed Ken Henry tonight but will watch it on iview.
Interesting that he now advises Julia Gillard.
Swan and whoever else crafted this latest budget also deserve great credit. Did Ken Henry comment on that?
by bemused on May 15, 2012 at 9:11 pm
daretotread
the trouble with your analysis of Rudd – that he was so smart he didn’t need to listen – is that the main complaint made by his colleagues is that the government had ceased to function – that NOTHING was happening.
Someone who, you hypothesise, was so far ahead of the ballgame he’d thought through the issues years in advance would not have been in that situation.
Like all leaders, he handled some situations very, very well – and others not.
by zoomster on May 15, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Dee
Patience indeed! That is one thing I lack, patience!!!!
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 9:11 pm
BK:
I don’t know if you’ve noticed it, but PvO seems to have been let loose with his Liberal attachment on Sky in recent months.
It’s to the detriment of his commentary IMO.
by confessions on May 15, 2012 at 9:11 pm