Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
I see that Queensland have initiated dispersal proceedings against the Aboriginal Tent Embassy.
The cover story was the Greek Festival needing the space. There have been 36 Greek Festivals co-existent with the Aboriginal Tent Embassy.
It is just your run-of-the-mill reflexive reactionaries bastardising the blacks.
It is high time for Mr Pearson to write his usual half page in ‘The Australian’ explaining why his Upper Class mates are right. The problem for Mr Pearson is that if you lie down with Upper Class dogs you get up with fleas.
Mr Abbott should be asked whether he would close the Aboriginal Tent Embassy in Canberra.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:15 am
Smaug 1350
Danny and others i think this a very interesting post page 27
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 8:16 am
BW – Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc has just trademark & patented MOAR
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 8:16 am
Events have now shown that both the Ashby & Thomson case – Tony Abbott must explain his prior knowledge, involvement & conflict of interest
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 8:18 am
Surely the govt and Thomson already knew of this friendship
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:18 am
BK
I do hope that the Britisher equivalent of the RSPCA is onto the case with a cruelty to animals charge vis-a-vis the rotten treatment of Raisa.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:18 am
Surely, Mr Lawler will be submitting his resignation, forthwith. For family reasons, of course.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 8:18 am
Finns
Excellent. We should make MORE from MOAR.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:19 am
It seems to me not all of you have noticed lady lynne post
Thanks finns
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 8:20 am
Hey finns
The journo from Fairfax said in tweet to be patient. When is she going to disclose moar?
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 am
Boerwar, to make it even better Newman described the Aboriginal Tent Embassy as ‘squatters’ and claimed they’d had their ‘day in the sun, so to speak’.
by ltep on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 am
j2
Mr Lawler should, at the very least, have stood aside while the investigations were wending their way across the tawdry HSU landscape.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 am
Confessions y our po st
How is this so, i thought i read ome document here last night that was posted
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 am
From the Independent Australia article:
It rounds out the Vex News reports.
1. The police who raided the HSU offices deliberately used the front door, where the media were gathered, even after being offered more direct access, via the back door, to their truck in the car park.
2. Many of the boxes the police carried were nearly empty.
3. The email mentioning the “cheque” (a rent cheque) from Carol Glen to her partner was a private email, but had been accessed by Lawler.
4. Abbott gave a glowing speech in praise of Lawler when he personally appointed him to the FWA (then called the “Australian Industrial Relations Commission”, AIRC). Of Lawler, Abbott said:
Lawler was not only admired by Abbott. They are friends, and socialize frequently.
5. As well as Kathy Jackson, Mal Brough has been recently involved with the HR Nicholls Society.
The same names and faces keep on turning up. They all move in the same circles. Email hacking is alleged.
Sound familiar?
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/how-the-hsu-tangled-jackson-lawler-and-thomson-with-abbott/
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 am
It’s probably still with legal
by Danny Lewis on May 16, 2012 at 8:22 am
Sorry to repeat this again, but when the PM said a line had been crossed in the Thomson and Slipper matters and there were dark clouds over parliament, what was she alluding to…………..
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:24 am
Itep
I have had numerous discussions with Indigenous folk who, increasingly, have been interested in getting on with getting on.
Mr Campbell seems intent on re-invigorating the crap thread of our race relations.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:24 am
*blinks*
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 8:25 am
Morning All
Pretty sure the date Victoria mentioned is 500 days from yesterday – i.e. as mentioned in Julia’s speech yesterday
There is a massive conflict of interest re Lawler – question is what did he do to distance himself from the FWA investigation???
The Ashby stuff is all very strange – they take out the mentions of 2003 but say it will be broadened again and new applicants may be coming forward. I don’t really know how it all works but it’s sounding like it could take a long time to resolve
interesting times ahead
by womble on May 16, 2012 at 8:25 am
September never never FOOTY FINALS
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 8:25 am
I was watching Sunrise a few minutes ago. They had their segment where they get a couple of political “heavy hitters” to comment on a news item. This morning it was Alan Jones and Graham Richardson.
They introduced the story with a bit of blurb about a Salvation Army report about homelessness , which was fair enough. Jones was first to comment. What did we get? His set piece diatribe about TEH CARBON TAX. He finished up with a face saving connector along the lines of “if homelessness is this bad now, how bad will it be after TEH CARBON TAX, but that was the ONLY connection between the original item and his diatribe. There I was thinking “This is bizarre, but surely Mel or Kochie will come back with a question about the Salvo’s report.” Well, silly me – Mel had a follow up question on TEH CARBON TAX – so the whole thing was a setup. I didn’t hear what Richardson said because by then i was on the phone to Channel 7 in Brisbane giving them a piece of my mind about the whole thing being an abuse of the Salvo’s report and saying I don’t know how they keep their broadcasting licences when they do this sort of unconscionable garbage. Was very careful not to swear – nice lady said she would pass my complaint on.
Now I NEVER do that sort of thing – my OH will ring up the TV station when she thinks they’ve got something wrong but my normally calm assessment is that it won’t do any good, so why waste energy on complaining. But this morning’s segment was just so blatant that I just couldn’t help myself.
Something really has to be done. When ALL the mass media is either owned or operated (in the case of the ABC) by one side of politics, something is really sick wit democracy.
by ajm on May 16, 2012 at 8:27 am
He had nothing to do with the investigation. It’s mentioned in the report.
by ltep on May 16, 2012 at 8:27 am
victoria:
You also have to throw into the mix Thomson’s address to parliament.
I also wonder whether it’s the LIberals leaking this stuff to Fairfax in anticipation of Thomson’s address. Get it out there beforehand so it isn’t as explosive when/if he dumps it all.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 8:28 am
None of would know, the terms of reference the a f p would have,
So we should stop quessing as to what they look at, may be
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 8:28 am
ajm
The msm are doing their very best to demonise this govt
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:28 am
Re. the election date “announcement”: The PM announced in her speech the election would be in “500 days”, which Mark Riley on Ch7 cleverly extrapolated to Sat Sept 28, 2013 (which is also AFL grand final day).
So really no-one has a clue.
by docantk on May 16, 2012 at 8:29 am
The shared religious affiliation of many of the parties is of interest, here, as well….come on down, Gorgeous George.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 8:29 am
confessions
What stuff is being leaked to fairfax re Thomson?
The only stuff leaked recently was the Brough/pyne Ashby connection.
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:30 am
Tony Abbott attacks Thomson & Gillard Govt everyday. Kathy Jackson also attacks Thomson & Gillard Govt everyday. Who is one Michael Lawler?
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 8:30 am
msm what is that?
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:32 am
When was this?
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 8:32 am
500 days is modest compared with, say, 10,000 years.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:32 am
Thanks for clarifying that.
by Tom Hawkins on May 16, 2012 at 8:33 am
confessions
Come to think of it, there was that report of the former liberal candidate wanting to sue Thomson for missing out on getting the seat of Dobell, and that dirt file. What happened to that story?
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:33 am
j2
Someone else put in Mr Newman’s quotes.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:33 am
victoria:
Sorry, thought it was an Age link on the previous page with the Lawler-Jackson-Abbott stuff, but it’s independent media.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 8:34 am
Yesterday joe2, I posted an extract from the AAP article at the time, could probably try and find it again.
by ltep on May 16, 2012 at 8:34 am
Considering that the Paniyiri organisers were most likely happy to share Musgrave Park with the Tent Embassy, the actions of Cam Bjelke-Petersen seem very excessive.
I mean, 200 police! Was that really necessary?
by Sossman on May 16, 2012 at 8:34 am
N{ow I NEVER do that sort of thing – my OH will ring up the TV station when she thinks they’ve got something wrong but my normally calm assessment is that it won’t do any good, so why waste energy on complaining. But this morning’s segment was just so blatant that I just couldn’t help}
I do allthe time,
But i stopped with abc news radio. As the person said not u again
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 8:35 am
Haven’t heard anything. It also implicated David(?) Gazzard who ran against Mike Kelly in Eden-Monaro.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 8:36 am
confessions
Yes that report was in Fairfax the other day
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:37 am
The HSU/Independent Australia author is Peter Wicks.
He wrote the Greg Smith asbestos article yesterday which IA reproduced. It disappeared for a while. It say this:
That proposition if true would have been the subject of press releases and interviews from the firms which act for asbestos sufferers in NSW; Slater & Gordon, Maurice Blackburn and Turner Freeman (even Taylor & Scott who advertise on IA).
It also would involve changing several pieces of legislation.
The article from Wicks on asbestos looks like bullshit.
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 8:37 am
joe2
http://tinyurl.com/bmyklrg
by ltep on May 16, 2012 at 8:37 am
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:38 am
shellbell
You do not believe Lawler is goid friends with Abbott?
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:39 am
Sossman
200 police…
One of the best, but least-known, bits of sculpture in the National Gallery is the word ‘DISPERSED’ in huge block letters. The letter ‘D’ is formed from .303 bullets.
The verb ‘disperse’ was used because stating an intention to ‘massacre’ could cause you to hang which was not fair.
by Boerwar on May 16, 2012 at 8:39 am
good
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 8:39 am
Itep I was wondering if it was recent….obviously, though, the tent embassy is on the LNP symbolic,dog whistle, hit list despite Abbott’s weasel words after he sparked the Australia Day restaurant protest.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 8:40 am
Which leads one to ponder how, with over 4,000,000 years to get human evolution right – nature red in tooth and claw, survival of the fittest, natural selection and all the rest, later on the poetry of Virgil, the sculpture of Michelangelo, the architecture of the Taj Mahal, the paintings of Turner and van Gogh, the literature of Dickens, Tolstoy and Conrad, the discoveries of Einstein, the sublime music of Mahler, Tchaikovsky, Puccini, and the voice of Dame Joan Sutherland – the process spat out… Tony “This is a baaaad guvm’nt” Abbott.
Throw in Joe Hockey, Kevin Newman, Clive Palmer and Rupert Murdoch and it becomes clear: there is no God.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 8:41 am
OK, state based embassy. Got it.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 8:42 am