Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
davidwh
The evidence of what has happened to day on Brisbane City Streets contradicts that last assertion.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:22 am
Re the Rudd video. Vex were across this ages ago.
“UPDATE: In other highlights, apparently the hack in charge of video recordings in the PMO under Rudd was a damsel Corri McKenzie, whose boyfriend was ALP assistant secretary Nick Martin. She’s now working for Jenny Macklin, we hear. Apparently while she shared lerv with Nick, some thought she was also sharing lerv with then PM COS Alistair Jordan. As a feminist publication, we feel comfortable observing that she is a “Naughty girl.” She has strongly denied distributing the video of Rudd swearing, insisting it must have been “public servants.”
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/02/labors-disgrace-self-indulgent-personality-politics-is-a-compelling-reason-to-punt-this-government/
by Greensborough Growler on May 16, 2012 at 11:23 am
guytaur
Ken Henry’s remarks re Rudd were a very deliberate move to correct the record in my view.
The AFP investigating the “video of Rudd swearing” may also very interesting!
by MTBW on May 16, 2012 at 11:23 am
After already arresting 30 of them. Maybe they are just encircling them to pick off the rest. That’s the Doyle/NLP police state model, davidwh.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 11:23 am
BG @1641 Does Kristina Kenneally have a niece
Well, if she has, there is a 50/50 chance that she (the niece) carries some of Tom Kenneally’s genes. That would be a massive start in life.
by Brian Mc on May 16, 2012 at 11:25 am
@DavidWH – I have not seen it suggested the police involved in the action at Musgrave Park (Mowbray Park is in East Brisbane – indigenous protesters would last 5 seconds around the million $ waterfront homes over there) have behaved poorly. In fact the opposite is true – they seemed calm and mostly very respectful. The police I spoke to were courteous.
The real issue is why were so MANY needed? The shear weight of the action creates a sense of chaos and fear – and yes – the return of the Police State we all thought we’d moved on from. It seems like ridiculous over-reaction to have 200 cops to move 20 people in 8 tents. And if Newman had kept his stupid inflammatory comments to himself I dare say the protesters would have worked with the Paniyiri Festival people for an outcome. Just as they have always.
by Boinzo on May 16, 2012 at 11:25 am
Vic
yes I agree that was the motivator. But I don’t think Asby thought through the personal consequences for him out of this.
If the Fed court throws it out on Friday, he is left with enormous costs. No one will be there to pick up the pieces for him.
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:28 am
Joe rubbish.
Boinzo my guess is the police probably over staffed to ensure the matter didn’t get out of hand. Aboriginal rights protests tend to be very emotional matters.
by davidwh on May 16, 2012 at 11:30 am
bg
This is bigger than Ashby, and the coalition should be held to account. This is serious shit
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 11:30 am
You are dreaming. The lone agent theory is already in tatters.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 11:32 am
bg
It will be interesting to see how long the AFP investigation takes after the Ashby case.
Especially if the Ashby case is thrown out. We could yet see Slipper in the Speakers Chair the following monday. Even if the AFP just makes a statement that the investigation into the cab charges is ongoing but that Mr Slipper is no longer a suspect.
It is a possible scenario. I would like to see that happen. The public would have a stark example about jumping to conclusions.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:34 am
George Mega’s blog is very very good.
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:35 am
davidwh, ‘all for their own good’, heh, you should be employed by the spin dept.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 11:35 am
Presumably, Wicks is going to report his serious allegations based on unnamed sources (who we know are HSU East persons because the poet, David Donovan, told us so) concerning the manner of the search peformed on the HSU East offices to the Police Integrity Commission.
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 11:36 am
davidwh
What the hell is that supposed to mean?
by kezza2 on May 16, 2012 at 11:36 am
Michelle Grattan @michellegrattan
Is the Lib party paying Tony Abbott’s legal costs in the defamation case?
by Greensborough Growler on May 16, 2012 at 11:37 am
While I didn’t see the Musgrave Park operaton first hand, I suspect the cops handled it reasonably well. I suspect the large numbers of cops were mainly to ensure things didn’t escalate out of control. Too small a force can lead to things like the Lobby Restaurant imbroglio where the cops are struggling to maintian control and the risk of violenece escalates. The flipside is that the large numbers look bad anyway, as Boinzo has pointed out, but I think a melle would look worse.
The real criticism should be reserved for Newman and his dog whistle. But he even got that wrong – fancy using “squatters” to refer to indigenous people! Every schoolkid knows who the original “squatters” were in Australia, and they almost all had white skins and a lot of money.
Newman’s lack of political smarts is starting to show. Having once aspired to be an engineer, I know how the engineer’s mindset works. However, human beings are not quite as easy to manipulate metal and earth.
by ajm on May 16, 2012 at 11:37 am
God damn Newman! I am so sick of the media and police helicopters hovering over my house!!
@DavidWH – I understand these protests can get “emotional”. But I would class a 10x number advantage armed with tasers and glocks as being pretty asymmetrical. It is also hard to understand why it was seen as necessary to close down about 20% of the land area of South Brisbane to move 20 people at dawn.
I contend that the size of the police presence (and how they operated to close the streets and prevent access to the entire area) was more about preventing other people joining the protest than it was about safety.
by Boinzo on May 16, 2012 at 11:38 am
Joe2
When it falls apart no one political is going to be standing next to him. It would be like Eric Abetz driving Godwin Grech to rehab. It just wont happen.
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:39 am
GG
Has Grattan been twittered about Abbott’s relationship with Lawler? Or don’t journos of her “stature” delve into such things?
by Lynchpin on May 16, 2012 at 11:39 am
Psyclaw @1576
I tweeted Emma Alberici my annoyance at her “lashing out” claim @albericie
by docantk on May 16, 2012 at 11:39 am
shellbell, your skirting around of the main issue, in the article, that a judicial officer should not behave like that, is telling.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 11:40 am
Labor’s City of Sydney mayoralty primary candidates:
http://www.communitypreselection.com/The-candidates.aspx
by docantk on May 16, 2012 at 11:40 am
Too early to throw it out, I think.
Even the Commonwealth isn’t arguing that.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 11:41 am
Has anyone any thoughts on what the chances are of it being thrown out at this early stage?
by Darn on May 16, 2012 at 11:41 am
Guytaur
The Fed police case will run its own course. It seems silly using Fed police to do this sort of thing. Much more suited to an anti-corruption body. JG
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:42 am
Guytaur
The Fed police case will run its own course. It seems silly using Fed police to do this sort of thing. Much more suited to an anti-corruption body. JG should
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:42 am
Guytaur
The Fed police case will run its own course. It seems silly using Fed police to do this sort of thing. Much more suited to an anti-corruption body. JG should propose
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:42 am
Guytaur
The Fed police case will run its own course. It seems silly using Fed police to do this sort of thing. Much more suited to an anti-corruption body. JG should propose one
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:42 am
Guytaur
The Fed police case will run its own course. It seems silly using Fed police to do this sort of thing. Much more suited to an anti-corruption body. JG should propose one ASAP.
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:42 am
by Danny Lewis on May 16, 2012 at 11:42 am
Thanks BB. You must be psychic. Answering my questions before they are posted
by Darn on May 16, 2012 at 11:43 am
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:43 am
Kezza I’m sure I meant emotional in the worst way the word could be used and therefore this is another of those gotcha moments. Enjoy the moment.
by davidwh on May 16, 2012 at 11:43 am
Hmmm
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:43 am
Exactly. Can’t wait to hear what Ashby says in cross examination. Particularly about his relationship with Pyne.
by Lynchpin on May 16, 2012 at 11:44 am
bg,
You seem to have the hiccups.
by Greensborough Growler on May 16, 2012 at 11:44 am
bg
Are they installing the NBN in your area?
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:45 am
OPT @ 1567
If Qlders are honest, there won’t be many of those sold.
by Ozymandias on May 16, 2012 at 11:46 am
Same old from Abbott. His only new thing is Compensation is now the tax is forever and will go up and up etc.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:46 am
joe2
I agree and he should be investigated – problem is that there is no judicial commission at the Cth level – still that does not make him immune.
But the messenger, Wicks, is prepared to toss in whatever he is fed by persons who want to be unnamed. Allegations made by unnamed sources go nowhere and Wicks would know that.
I would be waiting until the allegations are run by the serious bloggers not fringe writers.
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 11:46 am
Oh, I see, you don’t want to answer the question on the grounds you may
incriminate yourselfbetray your prejudice?by kezza2 on May 16, 2012 at 11:47 am
Nil chance of it being thrown out. The Statement of Claim looks regular on its face even if every allegation underpinning it is bullshit.
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 11:48 am
Lynchpin,
The stuff about Lawler and Jackson is not a revelation as it has been published in the MSM a number of times. The media story has thus far focussed on the allegations and the FWA report.
I assume Thomson will be calling in to question the relationship and the emergence of the allegations against him. However, the phone call to Glen is a rather disturbing allegation which may see Lawler turfed from his comfy sinecure if a valid explanation is not forthcoming.
by Greensborough Growler on May 16, 2012 at 11:49 am
What a bloody idiot!!!
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:49 am
Only for their part of it. Who knows what Slipper will seek.
Probably better for Ashby to lose now than later.
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:50 am
Abbott got a question on Slipper.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 11:50 am
Guytaur
No idea about the NBN.
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 11:51 am
Re the Ashby hearing – I think I saw it’s a directions hearing, so it’s really to identify what information needs to be before the court and what process will be followed. In my experience, the outcomes of directions hearings often cause one or the other party to re-evaluate their determination to proceed. This would be the opportunity for Ashby to back out with some face saved if he sees that it’s all going to get pretty murky for him otherwise.
by ajm on May 16, 2012 at 11:51 am
GG
Do you see any political mileage for the Govt in the Abbott/Lawler alleged connection?
by Lynchpin on May 16, 2012 at 11:52 am