Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
JoHO floundering on justifying NDIS policy
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:09 pm
What a lot of codswallop! Asked about the NDIS, now going on about state taxes!
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Joe is a total twerp. The Government’s $1 bill WILL start the NDIS.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:12 pm
What’s Joe shitty about?
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Joe not gilding but killing the lilley.
by Greensborough Growler on May 16, 2012 at 1:12 pm
WW: costings?
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Thanks Kezza. I can live with you finding my use of the word strange and I agree with those descriptions you used.
by davidwh on May 16, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Everyone else in the room got to eat first?
by Lynchpin on May 16, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Good Question from Canberra Times.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:13 pm
“All our policies will be fully funded and costed by “independent sources”"
Who will probably end up in jail for their “audits”.
by Dan Gulberry on May 16, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Reduce by 12000 over 2 years by natural attrition. You have to be joking!
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Now he’s into clown mode!
by BK on May 16, 2012 at 1:15 pm
That is precisely what they said last time, re. Hogwarts. Why does no-one point this out? Joe clearly believes he can just say anything.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 1:15 pm
wal kolla: Bring in Nude Wednesday’s and I’m there
But don’t forget doubling the education budget, raising the tax-free threshold, infrastructure, the atmosphere, guiding the economy into the future, productivity, paid parental leave, raising income for the lowest earners, increasing the pension, aged care, super, the murray-darling, NDIS, health, company tax forum, sharing the boom etc… (and of course your NBN)… these will also help. Good luck
by Gecko on May 16, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Joe is hatching chickens? That might explain his sweat.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:17 pm
So yup, we will have Thomsons vote if we like the way he’s voting. Thank you very much.
But if he’s not voting the way we want his vote is TAINTED and anyone who accepts it should burn in hell!!!!
by imacca on May 16, 2012 at 1:17 pm
And now Hockey admits they will accept Thomson’s vote, but only if he votes against the government.
Oh, the hypcrisy, it burns.
by Dan Gulberry on May 16, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Bongo talking economics. Joe is wrong bloke to ask.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:18 pm
This should be tweeted around. Great fodder for the Govt to use next week.
by Lynchpin on May 16, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Such incoherence from the Shadow Treasurer.
by BK on May 16, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Mr Denmore @MrDenmore
The net new supply of Australian govt bonds is FALLING as global demand for rare ‘AAA’-rated paper is INCREASING. Do NOT believe Hockey.
by lizzie on May 16, 2012 at 1:20 pm
And Peter Martin hits him with a zinger!
by BK on May 16, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Now JoHo arguing over when they released their dodgy costings
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Journos not happy, Joe!
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Ha a bond market question
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:22 pm
I hate to see what #npc is making of these non-answers.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Wow Hockey is going to get carpeted in the party room. He said good on him about the Treasurer and a policy
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:23 pm
ducky
#npc is close to 100% ridiculing Hockey.
And with considerable justification.
by BK on May 16, 2012 at 1:24 pm
The look on Hockey’s face at that question about the political art of compromise.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Hockey now telling the disabled to despair some more.
Is anyone exempted from Joe’s message of misery?
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 1:27 pm
buf·foon noun \(ˌ)bə-ˈfün\
Definition of BUFFOON
1
: a ludicrous figure : clown
2
: a gross and usually ill-educated or stupid person
by BK on May 16, 2012 at 1:27 pm
A message of hope… ahahahhhaha… stop it… stop it… ahahahahaha
by Gecko on May 16, 2012 at 1:28 pm
No questions on Slipper/ Ashby?
by Burgey on May 16, 2012 at 1:28 pm
I wish I had the concession for selling anti-acid tablets at this Luncheon …. some very twisted journalistic faces in the audience
by cybercynic on May 16, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Simply bloody useless!!
by BK on May 16, 2012 at 1:29 pm
It won’t take long to summarize that lot.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Joe is lucky that Greece is front and centre.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Greece should do an Argentina and get the hell out of there.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 1:31 pm
We need a media watchdog with teeth.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Turned on NPC late and saw the SBS lady ask a question and right behind her was Pruneface looking as pruney as ever, turned it off to recover
by mari on May 16, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Hockey’s tax cuts will be based on today’s tax rates.
In other words, the tax free threshold will be dropped back to $6k, and cuts will be made on that.
No doubt he means that from there only the highest marginal rate will be cut.
by Dan Gulberry on May 16, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Another friggin investigation. I have seriously lost count of the number of investigations going on at the moment. Now that police are looking for whoever leaked the Rudd swearing video.
How much effort and cost for so little return.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/craig-thomson-cleared-of-dodgy-election-funding/story-e6frea8c-1226357611368
by Diogenes on May 16, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Well Peter Martin was certainly fuming at the answer Hockey gave him. His next article should be a beauty about it.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Lynchpin 1818 done
by Lord Barry Bonkton on May 16, 2012 at 1:34 pm
lol mari @ 1839
by Meguire Bob on May 16, 2012 at 1:34 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/watchdog-lifts-ban-on-vile-kyle-slurs-20120516-1yq8q.html
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 1:35 pm
So FWA did carry out a sloppy investigation. They didn’t bother to check with the AEC.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 1:36 pm
mari – you is a big chicken! Pruneface might have sent you a lovely big smile
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 1:37 pm
A bit of ancient history re Lindy Chamberlain. When it first happened I was told by a very senior NT Cop that the then theory of investigating police was that one of the other children (I think they had one in mind specifically) had done the deed and that Lindy and Michael were involved in a cover up which had gotten out of hand. In the period after that I was out of the country for a long time and was surprised at the eventual outcome, but I saw little of the developments as they occurred.
by Michael Cusack on May 16, 2012 at 1:38 pm
BB – keep on top of it all for us, please.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 1:38 pm