Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Dingoes, Tasmania, Independent media stories;
Fair Dinkum…some of you mob would start an argument an empty house.lol
by Ian on May 16, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Leone Taylor made a very interesting comment on #Slynews with Britney & Big Mal.
She said, wtte, the Opposition had assumed that Thomson is already guilty of so many things that he can be hung with. As each allegation is cleared, eg: election spending, it could turn out to be a problem for Abbott.
We will see.
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 5:16 pm
The longest election campaign ever – 25/8/2010 to 28/9/2013
by davidwh on May 16, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Ian
Good one!
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Vic, if that is grand final day, she assured it was not the date.
She said yesterday there was 500 days until election – the media has extrapolated from that.
by jenauthor on May 16, 2012 at 5:17 pm
He is most likely to have his day in court closer to the Rio olympics than London
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 5:19 pm
There was a two legged dog down the street I grew up in. Lucky for him they were opposite front and back so he could run around no worries at all.
by deflationite on May 16, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Get a load of this: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0ctB3LVda7hY3psYUF4WUpkbzg/edit?pli=1
by jenauthor on May 16, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Jenauthor
The AFL grandfinal is usually in the last weekend of Sep. this year GF is on Sat 29/9/2013. I dont know why this is being reported
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 5:21 pm
victoria – Julia laughed it off today and said wtte ‘are you serious? An election on GF Day. I’ll be at the MCG watching the Doggies win the flag’.
She said just because she mentioned 500 days some person has extrapolated that to mean end of September. She and Combet were laughing about it.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 5:25 pm
The Finns@2101
So there will be MOAR!
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 5:25 pm
jenauthor
Cobb reckons the ALP created the GFC. The man is demented.
by ruawake on May 16, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Craig Emerson MP@CraigEmersonMP
Shadow Cabinet Minister accuses Labor of creating GFC. I kid you not. Emmo. https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B0ctB3LVda7hY3psYUF4WUpkbzg
by Schnappi on May 16, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Jen – I can’t get that link. Said too many reading it. What is it about please.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 5:26 pm
BH
I listen to SEN sports radio. At 5 pm the news reporter said that the PM has announced that the election will take place on Saturday 28 Sep 2013. That is it. Nothing else.
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Though it should also be noted that the political media don’t have an issue with different standards being applied to the ALP and the Coalition.
“Incompetence”, for instance, only happens on one side of the political divide – and apparently applies to anything the Coalition says it applies to. The Coalition aren’t incompetent; they can trot out any old nonsense – and any old promise too – on the basis that they won’t be releasing policy until the election is announced.
“Lies” are only told one one side of the divide as well. On the other there are recalibrations, or adjustments to statements; which also means that anything they say definitively is not definitive, it’s conditional.
“Scrutiny” ought only to be applied on one side as well. The other side can be “trusted”.
And so on…
by Aguirre on May 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm
This talk of the PM setting the election date is absolute nonsense. Clearly she was referring to 500 days as a rounded number give or take about 100 days. No PM is going to give up their right to call an election at the most propitious time.
It reminds me of the person who claimed the earth was four billion and seven years old. When asked how he could be so precise he explained that when he was in school he learnt that it was four billion years old and that was seven years ago.
by Haydn on May 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Try again BH, it just worked for me.
by MsAdventure on May 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm
More Bizarroworld writing from Grattan.
by Son of foro on May 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Vic, you can bet your sweet bippy there will be MOAR
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Let us not firget that the union movement had big stakes in the 2007 election, and in getting as many Labor members into parliament as possible in a bid to oust the Howard government and Work Choices.
Secondly, it seems to me the HSU got a particularly good result for all of this, as FWA raised the wages of poorly paid health workers only recently.
HSU funded Thomson. HSU members got their money’s worth.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Standing order 130:
That seems rather prescriptive to me, and clearly doesn’t allow for a teller to be picky about who has and hasn’t voted.
by William Bowe on May 16, 2012 at 5:28 pm
@CraigEmersonMP Emmo, but Labor created the BISONs – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Dee @ 2098
There is a lot in there that resonates!
“Mind you on polling day we left our contact details and hadn’t heard anything.”
Yes, most branches and electorate organisations are notoriously poor at managing such things as they are run by untrained volunteers who may or may not have the right sort of background to organise and process such information.
In this modern age with computers and the internet, the ALP should ensure all such details are properly recorded on a central database, membership invitations issued, details of non-member volunteers retained, contact maintained, invitations to events issued, opinions sought, interest maintained and assistance sought at election time.
At present, a lot of this information is in the hands of individual branch office bearers who can move on, lose interest or otherwise cause contact to be lost.
Damn shame, we should be able to do much better.
by bemused on May 16, 2012 at 5:31 pm
I seem to recall that the last time the PM made a negative promise that included a reference to the Doggies it actually happened so last Saturday in September 2013 is looking likely.
by davidwh on May 16, 2012 at 5:32 pm
I could make a comment on Greek beers, but I choose not to. Someone always has to Godwin a thread.
by Dr Phibes on May 16, 2012 at 5:32 pm
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Finnegan 2101
Thomson should hope that all this goes to court, since a finding of not guilty would be the only way to ensure that defamation proceedings against various parties would succeed.
As his reputation has been well and truly trashed, and his career in ruins, the claims for compensation would run into the millions. A non-guilty verdict by a court would leave Abbott and the media without a leg to stand on.
Then there’s the Slipper case. As an ex barrister and Anglican priest, Slipper would know the workings of Abbott’s mind only too well. Cleared of all charges (quite likely), he too would be a prime candidate for litigation against the top echelons of the lynch mob.
Three simultaneous defamation actions running against the dark monk. Now wouldn’t that be something.
by dedalus on May 16, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Dr Phibes
Greek bears not a good subject with Ashby citing twins and bears in his harassment case.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 5:33 pm
deflationite @ 2106
Wow! Never seen or heard of that before.
I have seen a 3 legged dog who had the obvious name of ‘tripod’.
The absence of one leg didn’t seem to bother him.
by bemused on May 16, 2012 at 5:33 pm
twinks not twins sorry,
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 5:34 pm
William, I think the idea is to abstain if the “embattled MP” (EMP) is going to vote your way.
Since you never know which way the EMP (whose vote you’re not accepting) is going to vote, then it behoves the appointed “pairing” MP (The Bunny) to station his or her self close to the doors.
After that it becomes a matter of The Bunny either being inside or outside the doors – in case the EMP tries a tricky one by dashing back to the other side at the last moment – when the call is made to “Lock the doors!”, as locking the doors locks MPs in as well as out.
Probably one of the fitter MPs (say one who rides bikes, or otherwise works out in the parliamentary gym) would be chosen (with or without running shoes) for The Bunny’s role, as trying to either push out of the doors or back in through the doors as they are closing might look unseemly and even further erode the public’s confidence in the parliament and its processes.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Schnappi @ 2112
Good on Julie Owens for having the presence of mind to mention that interjection to ensure it got recorded for posterity in Hansard.
by bemused on May 16, 2012 at 5:36 pm
SoF
Will JG be overseas next week during the sitting of Parliament?
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 5:38 pm
vic – better ring SEN radio and tell them they are wrong and to watch the PM’s presser today. There will be no election on that day and I don’t reckon she’ll do it the next week either. I thought it could be held any time up until end of October/early Nov.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 5:39 pm
bemused,
Let me at the membership management. With over ten years of building CRM systems, I am sitting here going mad at what I am hearing!
by Space Kidette on May 16, 2012 at 5:39 pm
BH
by jenauthor on May 16, 2012 at 5:39 pm
victoria
See the date of the Chicago Afghanistan Conference. Both JG and Smith are going to be there. Do not know about Carr.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 5:40 pm
If we are lucky it’s reverse pairs, if Thompson shows up, Abbott leaves the parliament and visa versa.
by fredn on May 16, 2012 at 5:41 pm
guytaur
Thanks
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 5:42 pm
something’s gotta give at some point pretty soon (early on a Sunday, US time)…
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-anxious-as-savers-withdraw-funds-20120516-1yqtg.html#ixzz1v14S3FyG
by Laocoon on May 16, 2012 at 5:42 pm
… blah blah. I have run out of fingers trying to count the people who personally knew someone who knows someone one knows someone involved in the case. Give it up.
It is nearly as bad as Thomson’s Bart Simpson Defence.
by Dr Phibes on May 16, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Now the MSM is reporting on NPC. Basically Hockey has blown tainted vote strategy out of the water.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockey-wont-rule-out-accepting-thomsons-vote-20120516-1yqmb.html
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Space Kidette @ 2135
Offer your services.
I have at various times offered to assist but got nowhere. Perhaps the time is right.
I really think the ALP could easily double it’s membership by measures such as properly following up inquiries and looking after people who had previously volunteered to help.
Getting in touch with unionists in their electorates would help too.
by bemused on May 16, 2012 at 5:47 pm
by Space Kidette on May 16, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Thomson’s clearing on AEC matters is precisely why the lynch mob mentality is so dangerous.
Presumed innocence IS important.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Guytaur but he justifies it because it will bring an end to a tainted government. You have to be flexible with you core values … apparently.
by davidwh on May 16, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Seems like the reason we had gridlock traffic on the way to work this morning was because our Premier was trying his damnest to impersonate a third rate – fourth world dictator, complete with jackbooted (OK hobnailed boots) stormtroopers.
Had to turn around and work from home. How much did this silliness cost the economy? Lost at least 2.5 hours and the stupid confrontation happened in the South west – I live in the South East of the city. Ridiculous, I thought there was major accident, or that a bridge that had collapsed or something.
by JohD on May 16, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Robert Oakeshott MP @OakeyMP
Welcome the increases to family tax benefit A and B from this week. $110 per child for A and $69 per child for B.
by Greensborough Growler on May 16, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Bemused
A terrible thing to say but we are kind of pissed off.
The ALP put up candidates who are almost invisible until weeks out from an election.
They should be out and about now, regardless of any hostility, building a reputation & becoming familiar with the electorate.
Grrrr…..and make it easy for folks to contact the local branch.
by Dee on May 16, 2012 at 5:49 pm