Crikey



Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.

Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Seat of the week: Banks

A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.

Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.

Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.

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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Oh fiona, don’t be so mean, there are engineers like me who do get it wrt climate change! :)

    by cud chewer on May 16, 2012 at 8:40 pm

  2. Hopefully the Greeks will wise up and throw austerity in the bin where it belongs, with other neoliberal arsehattery. Just like the Argies and Icelanders did.

    Yeah great idea: let’s take a recession and deepen it. What a con!

    by lefty e on May 16, 2012 at 8:40 pm

  3. swmbo is watching Denton (poor thing!) and I’m watching PJK.

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 8:41 pm

  4. lefty e,

    Argentina is a now a great place.

    How many Greeks would you like to die in misery?

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 8:42 pm

  5. cud chewer,

    That’s why I apologised in advance :)

    I will admit that I’m working with a relatively small sample; nevertheless it’s disturbing.

    by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 8:44 pm

  6. Paul needs a tie that does not emit Beta waves.

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 8:44 pm

  7. With the greatest respect to all those I’m about to offend, OH is (1) nearly 70, and (2) an engineer.

    I’ve noticed that many climate change deniers (or septics, as I prefer to call them) are (1) older males, and (2) sport a surprisingly high proportion of engineers.

    However, even engineers have their uses!

    Come just because the nutter from family first was an engineer, and just because …., there is no need to attack the rest of us.

    It effects engineers first, they have to pretend they can look into the crystal ball and get it right. Civil engineers that accept this is happening have to design for thousand year events as if they are hundred year events, the old ones have to accept they have made terrible mistakes as they have been designing for 100 year events.

    by fredn on May 16, 2012 at 8:45 pm

  8. Ducky, dead set right on about what happens on the ward and so forth. Agree with amazing treatment from public system. Himself Indoors just got his 18 month all clear yesterday for Ca. lung. The funny thing is his surgeon bears a striking resemblance to Ryk Mayall from “The Young Ones” and is also funny.
    BTW, good wishes to all the PBers who are either coping with health problems themselves or their families.

    by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 8:48 pm

  9. Keating really giving us a history lesson and heaping praise on Bill Kelty for his vision.

    by BK on May 16, 2012 at 8:48 pm

  10. The Finnigans

    The BISONs are cheering.

    Yep but we need more comparing and contrasting BISON’s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LUStSMWvqM with mad monk’s WARTHOG’s.
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_0bpOzvhZygs/TU_-ZBUMjYI/AAAAAAAAAoU/IKPq0in81X4/s1600/warthog+piglets+a+l+meintjes.jpg

    by poroti on May 16, 2012 at 8:49 pm

  11. Joe – agree that they are smarter. Mine grandkids are awesome, of course, just like yours.

    geoffrey – thanks for that. Will discuss with family members who are teachers. We haven’t done so to date.

    by BH on May 16, 2012 at 8:50 pm

  12. PJK just did an intro to Bill Kelty.

    Definitely not a great speech, just the odd dig at Howard.

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 8:50 pm

  13. Fredn

    I do wish that people would read and understand the first clause of my post!

    I’m not accusing all engineers: just stating that there’s a higher proportion than might be expected in the septic camp. And, fredn, your rationale for the need for acceptance by the “old ones” if anything supports my argument

    :)

    by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 8:52 pm

  14. I tuned in to the abc as Keating was stepping down from the stage. Darn missed him and his speech. Hope it will be available on the website later.

    by MsAdventure on May 16, 2012 at 8:52 pm

  15. TLBD,

    Please tell me you’re not a believer in this austerity crap.

    Cutting spending to stimulate the economy has never worked. In fact one of the reasons we avoided the GFC here was the Federal Government’s textbook Keynesian approach in opening the purse and spending-up big, going into deficit to do it.

    That’s precisely what Ken Henry said today, I thought.

    And yet here we are with the Euro Banks and the IMF leaning on the Greeks to do the exact opposite.

    Who do you reckon is right?

    The country that avoided the GFC or the Banks that caused it?

    by smithe on May 16, 2012 at 8:53 pm

  16. Harry,

    I just love handing over the largest box of chocolates (soft centres) I can find to the desk as she / I am discharged.

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 8:53 pm

  17. I’ve noticed that many climate change deniers (or septics, as I prefer to call them) are (1) older males, and (2) sport a surprisingly high proportion of engineers.

    And geologists in my experience.

    by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 8:54 pm

  18. So refreshing NOT to see Thomson front and centre on every news outlet.

    I have a feeling that the tide may be turning. Today’s exoneration of Thomson over major “charges” (Daily Telegraph charges, that is) could be a game changer. A big wake-up call that the lynch mob mentaility doesn’t always get it right.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 8:56 pm

  19. My way to save $ and emissions: I bought a bike! Three times a week I go to aqua aerobics and once a week—all short journeys, car not even properly warmed up at the end. So now I hop on the bike (worked out safe ways to get to where I want to go) and no petrol consumed so no emissions. Car is 29yo Ford Telstar so the less wear and tear the better.

    by political animal on May 16, 2012 at 8:56 pm

  20. Ducky, include some hard centres. My best advice!

    by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 8:57 pm

  21. What a joke, you blokes want the Greeks to ditch the euro?

    So if you have got a million euros in a Greek bank before the ditching of the euro, how much will that million be worth after the ditching of the euro?

    Great way to lose about 900k in euros :lol:

    Look, Greece should become another state of Germany, it’s the only solution in my view. The Germans can take the debt with all their assets and then look at growing their economy eventually, in the long term in everybody’s best interests.

    I hope the right wing wins in their next elections :cool:

    by Centre on May 16, 2012 at 8:58 pm

  22. Stop claiming Engineers and Geoligists have the highest proportion of Climate Sceptics. Everyone knows that dubious distinction belongs to “Shock Jocks”

    by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 8:58 pm

  23. And geologists in my experience.

    We had a theory about geologists when I was at ANU.

    Foresters too.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 8:58 pm

  24. Keating is always good value no matter the audience he addresses. His speech tonight was informative and quite funny with his various asides.

    The suggestion by Richo & Hewson that the PM will be rolled within a month is just so out of touch with reality. They have been saying this for ages.

    My view on the leadership is well known – I don’t intend to carry on about it again – but for Dog’s sake, why don’t these people get a life and come back to earth!!

    by feeney on May 16, 2012 at 8:59 pm

  25. BB,

    When were you at ANU?

    Ah yes, the foresters – remember how they used to faint during O-Week blood donations?

    by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 8:59 pm

  26. Do we know for sure that the story JWright is going to break is about Ashby?

    by Dee on May 16, 2012 at 9:00 pm

  27. HSO – good new re HI’s lung Does that mean he is out of all danger now?

    by BH on May 16, 2012 at 9:00 pm

  28. BB,

    When were you at ANU?

    Ah yes, the foresters – remember how they used to faint during O-Week blood donations?

    1971-74. Garran Hall (when they had a catering service, rather than DIY woks).

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:01 pm

  29. MsAdventure @ 2394

    Bemused,
    Our branch is planning to put out signs ‘ALP branch meeting here this morning’ from the next meeting, We need to engage with the people where we live. One member suggested always wearing an ALP badge and being prepared to talk about the achievements of our great party.

    All sounds good to me.
    I don’t know what happened to my old ALP badge, it seems to have got lost. But in any event, it was not particularly attractive and I would hope the ALP has come up with something better or will soon.

    I am not sure your sign will bring in too many spontaneous visitors, but if you set a regular pattern you might draw some after a few times.

    No use being like a secret society as some would have us behave. Gotta be out there among the voters.

    by bemused on May 16, 2012 at 9:01 pm

  30. Please tell me you’re not a believer in this austerity crap.

    Why would you think that?

    I applauded when Argentina shafted the IMF. After that, the IMF has gone to bugger the softer targets in Africa and Asia.

    Fini and Rajoy (damn him!) will go with Merkel.

    No one cares what the Belgians or the poms do. The Dutch will go with Hollande

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:01 pm

  31. Do we know for sure that the story JWright is going to break is about Ashby?

    Dee — her announcement was pretty clear that she’d just put her story to be. I expect she’ll alert twitter when the story goes up.

    by jenauthor on May 16, 2012 at 9:02 pm

  32. Actually, BB, one of my best mates was originally a geologist. She ain’t no sceptic. Might have to do with being from Quinceland though. Smiley thingy.

    by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 9:02 pm

  33. Do we know for sure that the story JWright is going to break is about Ashby?

    Funny how Wright felt she had to do “diligence”.

    Ashby was not so constrained. He just went all “drive-by”… then disappeared.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:02 pm

  34. Bill Kelty introduction News 24

    by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:03 pm

  35. Do Australians Really Want The NBN? Posted this link last night but well worth a read if you haven’t seen it yet.

    http://michaelwyres.com/2012/05/does-australia-really-want-the-nbn/

    by Rossmore on May 16, 2012 at 9:03 pm

  36. HSO

    So pleased to hear the good news on HI. :)

    by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 9:03 pm

  37. when the story goes up.

    IF it goes up.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:03 pm

  38. Centre
    Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    What a joke, you blokes want the Greeks to ditch the euro?

    No I just want the European central bank to face up to the fact that European banks debased the currency over the PAST 10 years, and that the european population is not going toaccept their solution, and to accept it sooner rather than later.

    It’s just he way it is, Angela Merkel isn’t going to make it through the next Germal elections.

    by fredn on May 16, 2012 at 9:03 pm

  39. Bill Kelty introduction News 24

    I’m dying to see if he’s still got that hair.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:04 pm

  40. Funny how Wright felt she had to do “diligence”.

    She told me she isn’t into “conspiracies” and was investigating the “facts”.

    by jenauthor on May 16, 2012 at 9:04 pm

  41. BB

    1971-74. Garran Hall (when they had a catering service, rather than DIY woks).

    Bruce Hall, 1973-1974, then back home…

    I have a funny feeling that we just might know each other. Wanna share emails via William?

    by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 9:05 pm

  42. Dee

    I sure hope so. This is the moar we have been waiting for!

    by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 9:05 pm

  43. The suggestion by Richo & Hewson that the PM will be rolled within a month is just so out of touch with reality. They have been saying this for ages.

    You all failed to read the post, the date on finns post was 27th april

    by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:05 pm

  44. SBTS Foundation‏@ScreenBabies

    We are suckers for cute babies. How cute is this? http://pinterest.com/pin/103864335126493277/ http://fb.me/13QJ7aAPC

    by Schnappi on May 16, 2012 at 9:05 pm

  45. vexnews ‏ @vexnews
    Kathy Jackson to defy HSU directive not to perform oratory at HR Nicholls Society #auspol http://bit.ly/KlKpkL

    by Dee on May 16, 2012 at 9:06 pm

  46. BH, major danger zone is the first 18 months apparently, so he’s got through that. Given his Dad died from Ca. lung we’re being cautiously optimistic.

    by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 9:06 pm

  47. Bill kelty now on 24

    by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:06 pm

  48. The curls are GONE!

    by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:06 pm

  49. Centre,

    Did you have a gander at the bit about the lady with cancer who couldn’t afford the cancer post-op treatment?

    The billions We Are Here To Save You are not going to hoi polloi they are going to the greedy (How was I to know that the exorbitant returns we were promised are not being realised) French and German bankers.

    by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:07 pm

  50. I am a geologist and accept the science of global warming.

    by political animal on May 16, 2012 at 9:08 pm

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