Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Ofcourse they should ditch the euro. they should have threatened the germans with this from the start. instead they accepted the onorous conditions the germans put on them when the fact is the greeks are the ones in the best bargaining position. ditch the euro default on the debts, return to the drachma and trade your way out of this hell. tourism will boom.
by the spectator on May 16, 2012 at 9:08 pm
We were probably lovers.
Those were the days…..
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Bill is no longer has the Cassius look.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Sorry TLBD, must have mis-reD your post at 2403.
You didn’t strike me as a rabid Free Marketeer.
by smithe on May 16, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Victoria
I just cannot help myself!
Started thinking about the comments before about some big breaking scandal regarding the ALP.
Perhaps I misunderstood or put too much weight on the comment .
by Dee on May 16, 2012 at 9:10 pm
s Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 5:56 pm | Permalink
Just a reminder:
The Finnigans – Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 9:13 am | Permalink Pin it on your fridge. On #Slynews this morning both Richo & Hewson predict that PM Gillard has one month left before being rolled #auspol
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:11 pm
MOAR ….. is coming
@GenGusface @jesswrightstuff ha ha ha Jess, so the diligence is done & due, well done
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 9:12 pm
smithe,
Farmers’ markets is where I go.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:12 pm
And this person collects 270,000 per year for her role in a union funded by member funds and goes and delivers a speech to an organisation who’s reason for existance is the abolition of union. she should be sacked immediately from her position in the hsu. given she earns over 100k the unfairdismissal laws under the fair work act wont apply.
by the spectator on May 16, 2012 at 9:12 pm
my say, i have engraved that onto my fridge door
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Jess Wrights Ashby story up at midnight or thereabouts – about to hear more about the inner workings of the QLD LNP. It won’t be pretty I fear.
whatever we may think of Cam Newman, it was a heroic feat to keep this rabble together throughout the election campaign.
by sprocket_ on May 16, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Sorry, but I can’t bring myself to trust any of the Wrights.
But am willing to be dragged kicking and screaming.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:13 pm
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/jackson-slams-union-muzzle-attempt-20120516-1yqwg.html Kick Her Out
by Schnappi on May 16, 2012 at 9:13 pm
BB
Hmmm, I can’t remember one from Garran Hall.
But my memory is not infallible.
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Fredn, nobody knows how this is going to play out exactly but the Greeks are going to take a massive hit either way.
I think that Germany should take their net assets lock stock, the Germans take a hit in the short term but it could work in the long term for all their best interests.
Hey we should give TAS away to NZ, they are slowing the Australian mainland
by Centre on May 16, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Kelty speaking True Believer Core Values.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Kelty is molding into another Keating: no more hang ‘em up and dry ‘em; just a bit of vivisection.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Finns i hope u tweet it back to them on may 27th may
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:15 pm
It will be online tonight!
by bluegreen on May 16, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Lots of residents cant.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Fantastic speech by Kelty. Truly inspirational. What it’s all about.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Thanks, Victoria. I really hope it cheers up some of the other PBers who are having chemo, etc. It probably won’t, but at least there is the hope of survival and the knowledge that there are people who care about people and their suffering . Maybe the Labor and Greens should have a proper coalition with the slogan of “LIFE; We’re all in this together”?
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Dee @ 2444,
Does Ms Jackson’s stupidity know no bounds?
Or has she already sorted her future career?
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Straw: “The only people who never make mistakes are those who never make decisions” In his view those people are the journalists. Methinks he doesn’t have a high view of the press.
So much of what he is saying is just as relevant to our msm – not surprising really, given they are nearly all in Murdoch’s employ.
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 9:17 pm
I never admitted I was from Garran Hall. It was this bandwagon technique I got raher good at.
Was in love with Debbie Snow (now at the Herald). She was from Bruce.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:17 pm
In my experience you are among the few in your profession.
At a party recently I had an ‘argument’ with several geologists (2 who were PhD qualified) about the influence of atmospheric CO2 on global temps. They flat out refused to acknowledge even the linear relationship which exists between the two variables.
These people have no right to call themselves scientists.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 9:17 pm
it will be interesting to see Kelty connecting his thoughts to today and the future
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Allan,
Jack Straw is a significant nobody. Why is he appearing?
Maybe Brian Leveson could extradite him to Spain or Chile.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Kelty speech should be put up in branches. What Labor is!
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:20 pm
the Spectator
Do you know how much of a hit the new Greek currency id going to take if they ditch the euro?
Everybody there with life savings in Greek banks should do the mother of all run on the banks before it’s too late and leave the country
by Centre on May 16, 2012 at 9:21 pm
OK – you 2, for those of us 10 years or so older, you are making us jealous of the freedom you had and we didn’t
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 9:22 pm
This going to drive Menzies House crazy. Years worth of whingeing about ABC bias.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:24 pm
The important issues…
http://tinyurl.com/6uw5337 (click google ink)
by Leroy on May 16, 2012 at 9:24 pm
BB,
About the time I was at Gowrie.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Keating and Kealty – what a combination.
by adam abdool on May 16, 2012 at 9:24 pm
This is a wonderful speech, from a bloke not traditionally given to high oratory.
by Burgey on May 16, 2012 at 9:25 pm
the spectator
Is that true? Why isn’t there unfair dismissal over $100K?
by Diogenes on May 16, 2012 at 9:26 pm
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Kelty has grown in stature.
Cough!
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:26 pm
I am a dolphin and accept the science of global warming.
by The Finnigans on May 16, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Let’s see the msm mangle this one!
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Hey we should give TAS away to NZ, they are slowing the Australian mainland
CENTER SAID
Whats this nasty streak u all have re us, you would abbott if it ws not for us,
Vic, u employment 6.2 ours 7.2!
We have had bad times be fore , and even had more gdp than te mainland.
Only time you nloody minlanderd e er notice us
Hss been bridge collape , port arthur, then evandale,
The media where very where
Where the hell do you think a lot of your milk products come from.
Food, veggies fresh ,
We have doubled our diary heard becauce we know with global wsrming you may have no grazing
Grasses,
We have more water than you couid dream of , of which we will not be selling
Our forest industy has been restructured while you dtill cut downnatives,
38 cruise boats put in here per season, its the second deepest port in the world,
To be truthful i prefer new zealanders to you lot finns excluded,
Suits me the 4 labor seats equall abbott
Well i know when i am not wanted,
Hypocrites
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:28 pm
“she should be sacked immediately”
My bet is, she is angling for that. FWA come on down. The circle joined.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Black Duck
He’s appearing in his capacity as a former Justice Minister, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary.
I doubt if Leveson will be recommending extradition as, judging by his (Leveson’s) opening welcome, they seem to be friends.
I have it streamed on my Mac whilst I’m doing about three other things and a lot of what he is saying seems totally irrelevant to me but he does seem to have the nub of the problem with the power of the media in the UK.
I thought it was Thatcher who was Pinochet’s friend. Can you remind me of Straw’s connection? I faintly recall Pinochet visiting the UK for medical treatment and a possible arrest under war crimes and/or a request by Spain to send him there, or am I wrong?
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Speaking of global warming, we only have one summer left before the next election.
I hope that bloody Mexican, El Nino I think his name is, can get here in time so he can start the thing (global warming)
by Centre on May 16, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Well, a politics free grand final is what we’ve all been looking for over many years as the bottom line for the our polity. Ran out of the interest in garnering more cliches to bolster this one. Bleah!
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 9:30 pm
my say,
There are some comments that should not be taken too literally.
Hard to distinguish sometimes, I know.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:30 pm
BH
I’m old enough now to know that we were amazingly privileged – and lucky – well into safe-from-pregnancy sex, well before HIV-AIDS.
BB
You have/had excellent taste.
I may be wrong, but I think that Ms Snow was a couple of years ahead of me at skool.
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 9:31 pm
my say, I was kidding
by Centre on May 16, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Kelty outlining why he thinks Labor is polling so appallingly.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:32 pm