Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Allan,
Straw “made the decision” not to extradite Pinochet.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Free love, no AIDS, anti-biotics still worked for the other stuff, Whitlam in power, Mungo drunk standing on a table at the Old union spouting forth, potent cider on tap, good food, bracing climate, maniacal magpies in the quad, the Civic Cinema underground showing retro movies (and the Film Society in the Nugget Coombs lecture theatre for the raunchy stuff), sliding down the bannisters in the Law faculty, Red Phones you could nobble to make free calls, the Oxon college system morphed onto an Australian scaffold, the Hume Highway a death trap with four hours to Sydney over Razorback, autumn leaves, Black Mountain, playing football still drunk on Saturday mornings, the Nation Review, seeing a man sentenced to death in the ACT Supreme Court (then hearing Mr. Justice Fox saying he didn’t think the sentence would be carried out), $17.50 for a TAA flight to Sydney on a student concession, and warm bods at night to keep you happy.
Call me sentimental, but those were the days.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Centre
I think El Nino and La Nina are Peruvian or Chilean, being southern hemisphere phenomena. The weather patters across the northern Pacific are something else (and probably Mexican
)
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Julia Gillard@JuliaGillard
Greg Combet got a high-five from a little fan just before Community Cabinet. Take a look. TeamJG http://pic.twitter.com/aTRVb80d
by Schnappi on May 16, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Keating: “By the time I’m finished with Hewson, he’ll be picking up himself.”
Contrast with Hewson today on Sky, still trying.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Former ACTU secretary Bill Kelty says it’s too easy to blame the leaders and the minutiae. #ac12
by James J on May 16, 2012 at 9:37 pm
BB,
I was a young innocent in the sixties. I awoke around 1972. Forty years later, I can put things in perspective: the Sixties were IT!
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:37 pm
OK thanks Allan, let’s hope our Mexicn equivalent gets cracking with global warming asap
by Centre on May 16, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Also says ‘its too easy to blame the media.’
by James J on May 16, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Thanks Black Duck. Now I remember.
Bushfire Bill @ 2501
Please stop it. You are making me so nostalgic for Canberra that I fear there will be tears before bedtime.
By the way – I worked in the Courts when Fox J was there.
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Too young for the 60s, too old for the 80s… but just right for the 70s.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Schnappi,
Terrific! Do you have the mum’s telephone number?
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Bill Kelty being inspirational. Silly old bugger.
by Dr Phibes on May 16, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Love to know what bought this on
Blue green, boerwar now, center
It was ill kelty who worked through the loss of the forest industry that you mainlander green
Protestors insisted on,, protestors tnat never lived here,
Now we have contract ors out of work divers of the log trucks’
We have lost a veggie processor, went to new zealand.
In the mean time the menzies cente are building, the utas has 23 th students many oveseas students.
A new irrigation system,is being built, from the west clast to double our water irrigation to grow vegetables,’for he mainland, when glibal warming arrives.
We are only 5000 thousand people an island , we need boats planes for our exports
You only need trucks,
But our island is the most beautiful place o earth, thats what counts not money,
Its people no matter where u go you know somebody, no one lets you down, no frowns no rudness no huss le , smog, clean air,
Litening to bill kelty makes me proud, i doubt centre he would agree with you
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:41 pm
BB,
Well, I still dig ABBA, and so does my daughter, born 1975.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:42 pm
They were indeed, BB – do you remember the gentleman who used to practise the bagpipes at dawn from somewhere behind CSIRO?
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 9:43 pm
are only 5000 thousand/ 500! Correction
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Were you in the Law Faculty?
Remember Jane Flecknoe? Wonderful lady.
Sister Pat Sorby?
Bobbi Gledhill?
Fantastic Canberra women. I held them in awe.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Speech terrific but way too long.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Great man bill kellty thank you,
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:44 pm
No ducky never to long to hear labor values
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Night, bludgers, a lot of people are doing really crazy things with drugs, like taking ice. Really, really bad. If you have any influence, use it. It’s the worst thing EVAH.
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on May 16, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Fiona
No doubt something is amiss with KJackson.
by Dee on May 16, 2012 at 9:46 pm
I used to sleep in late in those days. Too early for bagpipes. But there was this Asian student who played Mozart on the old upright at Garran beautifully. 11am… about my time.
But I do remember wonderful walks down around Sullivan’s Creek, around the shingle beach on Lake Burley Griffin, near the Curtin Medical Centre.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:46 pm
my say,
I could sit down with Bill, reduce the time by 30%, and still have a great speech.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:47 pm
The best thing to do is listen to it while blogging at Bludger. You pick up on the salient points.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:47 pm
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Night HSO
by victoria on May 16, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Greece Holds New Elections June 17 Breaking CNN
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 9:48 pm
I haven’t heard a speech terrific, but one based on motherhood statements with little substance.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 9:48 pm
TLBD
Suggest you ask Julia or Greg
by Schnappi on May 16, 2012 at 9:50 pm
He’s mired in the past. Has he considered the future?
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 9:50 pm
“Bastard boys”.
I rest my case.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 9:51 pm
BB,
The walk around LBG is still wonderful. You can walk on asphalt through lovely grassland and woodland; astounding views across the lake, even through the morning mist, to the hills that surround us. Pity about the lake itself.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:51 pm
I will have to watch vids of the ctu speeches tomorrow but they sound good.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 16, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Bobbi was my Logic lecturer. Jane Flecknoe – yes yes yes. Ditto Sister Pat.
Were you in the Law Faculty? Don’t get me started.
As for Sullivan’s Creek, shall I bore you with the true tale of how Toad Hall got its name?
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Bushfire Bill
No, not a lawyer. I was in the AG’s Dept which had control of the Supreme and Lower Courts prior to self-govt. My background was admin/finance and I ended up as the Administrative Officer for both Courts before moving to the insolvency area in AG’s.
Fox J was a nice man but somewhat aloof. In my day he was the only resident judge and others were brought in as required. His successor, Blackburn J was easier to get on with.
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 9:52 pm
I suggest you are too attuned to the sound-bite. This is a captive audience and I am thrilled to hear every word of what Kelty is saying.
“Not one thing that features me in The Bastard Boys was true…. I never saw Bob Hawke shout the bar. And neither did I.”
This is Kelty’s swansong. Give him some room.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 9:53 pm
The problem for the union movement engaging with younger people is that its public faces are lightweights like Paul Howes, or has-beens mired in the past like Bill Kelty.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 9:53 pm
fess,
He is telling whoever wants to listen of his values and experience. He is not telling anyone what to do. The listeners just may take out time to reflect on the values he espouses.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:54 pm
TLBD
Michael Kirby says that he much preferred Court 2 of the High Court (not the enormous court 1) because everyone could look out across the lake and remind themselves they were part of the world and not purely engaged in legal argument.
by shellbell on May 16, 2012 at 9:56 pm
If you Canberra reprobates have a mind I might be happy to put you lot up for a weekend or so.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Yes, the labour movement is filled with men like him who want to infuse the space with their values and their experiences.
We now have Bob Hawke, another from the distant past. When does the union movement celebrate its future?
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 9:59 pm
BB,
I could hear the audience getting bored. I abhor “sound bites”.
If I were to criticize the speech then I would say that he started a point and then meandered before putting it.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:00 pm
I worked in the Research schools of the ANU, is Kelty asking us if we have become complacent
by Augustus on May 16, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Of course perhaps it’s ‘bingo night’ at the conference whereby all the oldies front up to relive old times.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Ducky agree,
I think older people go o er older things things to much , i amsure we are all quilty of it,
But that bit about prepare for defeat, very anmoying
of course the abc ect will run with that
And the kevvies will to tomorrow, bei g of the same vintage as kelty,
I think though it will annoy many but make others say we will show you
Idid not hear the whole sentance, so not sure of the context but that will not stop the media
He should not have said it as they will use it,
But should not even utter those words
by my say on May 16, 2012 at 10:02 pm
confessions
He was accepting an award for his life work in the Union Movement. After his retirement from that work.
by guytaur on May 16, 2012 at 10:02 pm
fess,
It is called: think why you are all here and get on with it. Bad?
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:03 pm
TLBD:
Kin we hav a norgy?
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 10:04 pm