Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Puff:
It’s possible that the reason stalwarts don’t talk about the future is because that future involves morons like Howes.
I don’t know.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Just got LL with no sound. It is Tony Jones. Crap erupting.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Thanks black duck. I can certainly provide the kilt!
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Fiona
Nice story!
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Allan,
I have a MacGregor from my dancing days. No relation.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Ducky, can I bring a friend?
I have this Danish au pair staying with me, see, and there’s some moves she’s never seen involving a Zimmer frame …
by Fulvio Sammut on May 16, 2012 at 10:35 pm
confessions, I love it when you go punk.
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Their ABC mentions only negative Labor stuff from The Conference. Someone get me a bucket.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Journos are giving Hockey a bit of stick! For the second year in a row.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Fulvio,
Kan hun tale Dansk?
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:39 pm
fess
That I can agree with, Howes talks a lot but I do not know what he has achieved.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 16, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Joe2
Carefully ignoring TLBD’s assertions of
all I can say is, thank goodness for that! It means that I shall escape unscathed, leaving all of you to enjoy Allan Moyes’
Which reminds me: if we are in the spa, TLBD, why would you think that any of us would be attired in kilts, with or without netherments?
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 10:39 pm
This little black duck – you are aware Argentina defaulted on its debts, and then unlinked its Peso from the US dollar so they could devalue it?
Thats why theyre in a great place.
by lefty e on May 16, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Well said Puff and when those values have gone where to next for ordinary working folk – Abbott/Howard productivity fantasies I suppose. America here we come.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 10:40 pm
No, but you can point for me …
by Fulvio Sammut on May 16, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Fulvio – my mind is boggling.
Black duck – mine is Royal Stewart, although I’m “entitled” to wear Robertson or Angus because of ancestry.
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 10:40 pm
fiona,
Orgy Unlimited. Whatever! I won’t be judge but I might install a camera or two.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Does Lateline pay Tom Iggleton, or is he still on work experience?
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Fess – Howes is a loudmouth but people like Ged Kearney are gold.
by BH on May 16, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Puff:
Business has consistently bagged the govt, and has now lost it’s proposed tax cuts.
Seniors have consistently bagged the govt, while pocketing pension increases.
If seniors want to vote coalition against their own interests, then Labor should let them. No more sucking up to seniors.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 10:43 pm
A Zimmer Tax, perhaps?
by Fulvio Sammut on May 16, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Well folks, I’m off to bed to dream of Canberra, spas, tea and biscuits, kilts and zimmer frames. Have fun
by Allan Moyes on May 16, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Very easy run for Hockey at the NPC. He says CAnberra prospered under Howard govt. I know people who lost their homes in Howard’s first term.
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Scaredecat Abbott
Mark Duckett@MarkRDuckett
@davidbewart this would sum Abbott up on it http://yfrog.com/o09pbybj
by Schnappi on May 16, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Allan,
swmbo and I embarked on Scottish country dancing and I had to get a kilt. Of the colours and patterns available I chose that one.
Longa time ago. Reckon I could still do a decent reel.
Was part of a céilidh on Manuka Oval.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Fulvio,
Why am I thinking about Uma Thurman in The Producers?
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Of all the questions Grattan, the doyenne of the press gallery could ask, and she asks something Hockey himself by his own admission says he anticipated.
Irrelevence syndrome!
by confessions on May 16, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Fyshwick, entrepreneurial, xxxx duck will make your stay an unforgettable one…
by joe2 on May 16, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Tony Jones is doing the big issues, not.
Time form Leveson.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Fiona, I have never shared a Zimmer frame with that woman!
by Fulvio Sammut on May 16, 2012 at 10:51 pm
joe,
Enough takers on PB so no need to waste money on adds.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:51 pm
I’m quite sure that M. Canard is not thinking of colourful sendy-out type stuff…
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Well, there you go.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Fulvio,
Of course you didn’t – we all know that she just grabbed it…
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 10:53 pm
BB @ 2554:
To paraphrase George Carlin(?): “It’s not the ‘getting down’ that concerns me, it’s the sudden stop at the end.” I assume these days it would be “Just kidding. LOL. REMOVE THE PRISONER”?
by Jaeger on May 16, 2012 at 10:53 pm
For those interested:
I’m off to watch the first episode of Columbo on DVD.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Eh bien, if Leveson’s finished for this evening, so should I (was thinking about an 11pm curfew anyway).
Goodnight all, and let all dream of what they will.
xxx
SWALK
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Does Tony Jones know what “dilettante” means?
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:56 pm
See you in an hour so, maybe.
by This little black duck on May 16, 2012 at 10:57 pm
What effing rot!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
Labor’s “Abbott is talking down the economy” line must be biting.
Running a counter in The Australian won’t help.
Not enough readers.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 10:58 pm
TLBD:
No.
Could you be more specific? After all, we PBers don’t want to intrude on an idyll…..
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 11:01 pm
The witching hour – eleventy clock – has struck.
Goodnight and good luck.
by fiona on May 16, 2012 at 11:02 pm
The average Australian’s love of a free lunch at the expense of a mining company is hard to overcome, BB.
Shedding tears for BHP is not yet part of the national psyche, the theatrical efforts of Twiggy Forrest, Gina Rinehart and Julie Bishop notwithstanding.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 16, 2012 at 11:04 pm
More Tommy rot:
The Libs had their chance at donation disclosure laws and they squibbed it.
Too late, mate.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Jac Nasser………..standing in front of a “Freehills” sign…says it all
by Last name red wombat on May 16, 2012 at 11:08 pm
What irks me is that its the Coalition that have been talking the economy down and affecting confidence.
It stands to reason: why would a Labor government talk down its own accomplishments?
Doesn’t pass the laugh test.
Bring it on.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 11:08 pm
LOVE-ly chap:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-16/maldic-war-crimes-trial-open-in-the-hague/4015512
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 11:16 pm
It passes the No-Mining-Tax-Under-The-Liberals test though, BB.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 16, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Ultimately they’re making too much money here to up stakes and leave. Mining managers don’t get shot or kidnapped by The People’s Liberation Army Of Kimberly here.
I doubt whether the punters will listem to the miners crying poor again.
But it shits me just the same that the miners try it on.
by Bushfire Bill on May 16, 2012 at 11:25 pm
I like the opportunity to say to people when we discuss how some program or infrastructure etc is needed, “It is about time we had that, how about the mining companies coughing for selling off OUR minerals, then we can afford it. We are rich, where is our share?”
Never had anyone disagree.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 16, 2012 at 11:30 pm