Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Actually hope all murdoch media pick up the story and publish it,if people my age can see the flaws in it,really doubt the rest will publish it.
by Schnappi on May 17, 2012 at 1:15 am
Oh you can rest assured that the Murdoch Press will run with the story alright, Schnappi.
They’ll support Abbott’s call for the ads to be withdrawn.
by smithe on May 17, 2012 at 1:17 am
I mean, it’s quite normal isn’t it, to get on the turps for two or more hours, late at night,with someone you hardly know, accidently, in their office, while you are both still at work, then leave when you are sprung by his boss, immediately enquire as to said stranger’s contact particulars, and send him a cryptic email?
Happens all the time.
Move along, nothing to see here.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 17, 2012 at 1:23 am
I wonder at which office Bloch Lieber, or whatever their name is, will lodge their Legal Aid application on Abbott’s behalf.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 17, 2012 at 1:27 am
Somehow I don’t think he’d qualify Fulvio, not on a LOTO’s salary.
by smithe on May 17, 2012 at 1:32 am
Fulvio Sammut
Did not know that was a requirement ,but abbott would be means tested out anyway.
by Schnappi on May 17, 2012 at 1:32 am
Will Abbott’s defence, when filed, have the filing fee waived as being In Forma Pauperis?
by Fulvio Sammut on May 17, 2012 at 1:32 am
You guys don’t do sarcasm well, do you?
by Fulvio Sammut on May 17, 2012 at 1:34 am
Well he does have a hefty mortgage which he filed two years late and critises everyone for the same thing ,every lie he tells about anyone is to cover his own lies.
by Schnappi on May 17, 2012 at 1:37 am
Too late at night Fulvio. Me brain is fried.
See yez tomorrow Bludgers.
by smithe on May 17, 2012 at 1:38 am
17th May, a year already?
Days go slowly, years pass quickly.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 17, 2012 at 1:49 am
Nite, Rumpole.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 17, 2012 at 1:50 am
That is not a squib, that is the ‘legalled’ version.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 17, 2012 at 1:58 am
Thinking of you Puff.
by MsAdventure on May 17, 2012 at 2:07 am
Perhaps Abbott will represent himself, and in every sense of the expression have a fool for a client and a rogue for a solicitor.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 17, 2012 at 2:08 am
The crap that is on early morning tv is atrocious ,glad there is at least iView.
by Schnappi on May 17, 2012 at 2:15 am
MsAventure,
Appreciate that.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 17, 2012 at 2:21 am
Puff,
I don’t know where to start or end.
by This little black duck on May 17, 2012 at 2:52 am
I tried to stay up for Jessica’s big story, didn’t make it but thought I’d check in before going back to sleep
She should be a poker player – the cards have been dealt, neither knows what the other is holding. After a small opening bet from Jessica, Pyne called – is he bluffing??? We’ll find out soon enough as Jessica just raised the stakes – will he just call again, go all in or fold his hand
It’s becoming a very public game, Pyne should know when to walk away and know when to run
Good job Jessica, playing your hand beautifully
Note – he could be totally correct when he says he hasn’t discussed the Slipper allegations but he does have some questions to answer, if he chooses to do so
by womble on May 17, 2012 at 4:04 am
Just imagine if Steve Lewis was handed a copy of Pyne’s email. As sure as hell we would never have heard of it. Corruption is rife in our media.
by Tom Hawkins on May 17, 2012 at 6:18 am
I wouldn’t think so given the parliamentary departments, who would ‘hold’ the emails are not subject to the FOI Act.
by ltep on May 17, 2012 at 6:31 am
Tom Hawkins
Does anyone know if there is any prospect of real media reform here? I find it outrageous that a meddling foreigner (Murdoch) has made disparaging statements about our current parliament and all but called for a change of government on twitter. In the unlikely event that the lackeys running his rags here were concerned about any ambiguity they now have got clear guidance for their low rent political coverage.
by CO on May 17, 2012 at 6:37 am
Christopher Pyne’s been caught lying again by @jesswrightstuff http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-emailed-slippers-accuser-20120516-1yre1.html He shld resign immediately from Oppn frontbench #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 17, 2012 at 6:43 am
@jesswrightstuff Jess, well play, well play indeed. There will be MOAR!!!!!
by The Finnigans on May 17, 2012 at 6:50 am
Bill Kelty said dont blame the media. He should read all the headlines in the #MSM this morning or every morning #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 17, 2012 at 6:53 am
morning all
will pyne be squirming? i wonder….
http://www.afr.com/p/national/bhp_fires_salvo_on_industrial_relations_Fdop8kAVa4LZUQiyVErBGN
well, he has to blame someone doesn’t he? might as well be the govt…. poor bhp!
by Lyne Lady on May 17, 2012 at 7:01 am
Good Morning
So Mr Pyne deeper into the mire by not being honest and forthright from the start.
Does this indeed add fuel to the fire of the rumours of Mr Pyne resigning as Leader of Opposition Business?
Does this make it more likely we will see Mr Slipper resuming his job sooner rather than later?
Interesting questions to come.
As for the actual incident it is starting to come to either Mr Pyne pleads innocent by means of being gay, or there is indeed something very fishy indeed.
by guytaur on May 17, 2012 at 7:07 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Presumably this has considerable value and needs to be declared somewhere?
Lenore Taylor has a dip at Hockey’s non-speech but doesn’t go in too hard.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/coalition-shies-away-from-the-devil-in-the-details-20120516-1yr8v.html
A simple cartoon from Leunig on gay marriage.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/05/16/3299653/MOR-leunig_20120516112638465387-620×0.jpg
I don’t know where Alan Moir is coming from here.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
The wind can be taken out of the sails of these rapacious distributors and retailers by disclosure of true manufacturing costs.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/watchdog-urged-to-probe-local-distributors-blocking-online-sales-20120516-1yrcf.html
David Rowe on the “Nightmare of NewsCorp”. Quite ugly.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on May 17, 2012 at 7:09 am
Perhaps I’m being a little pessimistic but doesn’t releasing tidbits sort of neutralise Pyne’s involvement.
Media outlets won’t run with it because a little on it’s own has no impact.
by Dee on May 17, 2012 at 7:11 am
Good Morning, Bludgers.
Very interesting article on An opinion poll conundrum by John Warhurst) in which, among other things, he considers the effect on polling of distortion, esp of Gillard v Rudd leadership stats:
An intelligent articulation of Opposition preferences and an attempt to identify the reasoning behind them.
by OzPol Tragic on May 17, 2012 at 7:12 am
Morning
Looking forward to Pyne explaining his latest memory lapse.
by victoria on May 17, 2012 at 7:13 am
Dee
Emerson can come out and say more evidence that Pyne has to come clean about his involvement in the case. So yeah it will bet media coverage.
by guytaur on May 17, 2012 at 7:13 am
bet=get
by guytaur on May 17, 2012 at 7:14 am
Dee
You are being very pessimistic. Pyne is in real trouble.
by victoria on May 17, 2012 at 7:14 am
@CraigEmersonMP Emmo, Pyne has lied to the punters 4 times already, first no contact, then just a beer, then some text and now the email
by The Finnigans on May 17, 2012 at 7:16 am
Some bad news for closet case gays.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/scientists-find-that-most-people-can-accurately-guess-whether-someone-is-gay/story-e6frf00i-1226357936843
by guytaur on May 17, 2012 at 7:17 am
Well may we say gawd save the opposition leader.
Because NOTHING will save the poodle.
by Son of foro on May 17, 2012 at 7:17 am
Vic, we promised MOAR ….. it is MOAR and there will be MOAR, this way >>>>>>>>>>>
by The Finnigans on May 17, 2012 at 7:18 am
When words are not enough . .
http://www.americablog.com/2012/05/catholic-school-would-rather-kill-kids.html
http://www.americablog.com/2012/05/virginia-house-of-delegates-rejects.html
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/church-sues-woman-500000-after-negative-goog
Yes – from the Land of the Free!
by BK on May 17, 2012 at 7:18 am
The Finns
Looking forward to it. What is Pyne going tosay now?
by victoria on May 17, 2012 at 7:19 am
Gutaur & Victoria
I’ll be very happy if I’m wrong!
by Dee on May 17, 2012 at 7:21 am
Dee
What makes you think this will not be taken seriously?
by victoria on May 17, 2012 at 7:22 am
The US is going through a slow awakening. When Texas outlaws the death penalty I think that finally the US may stop using it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/16/carlos-deluna-cameron-todd-willingham_n_1521755.html
by guytaur on May 17, 2012 at 7:24 am
Thanks BK!
For those who don’t recognise the original, Ophelia by in London’s Tate Gallery. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ophelia_%28painting%29
by OzPol Tragic on May 17, 2012 at 7:24 am
Morning all.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-emailed-slippers-accuser-20120516-1yre1.html#ixzz1v4Ph8uH3
No wonder he’s gone to ground.
by confessions on May 17, 2012 at 7:24 am
Who said advertising of cigs was banned, is this a story or one long ad for a new cheap ciggie brand.
Appears by BATA comments that branding has little to do with what smokers buy.
Goodbye high court argument hello plain packaging.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/cigarette-giant-british-american-tobacco-australia-chops-up-the-prices/story-e6freuzr-1226358200228
by castle on May 17, 2012 at 7:25 am
Thanks BK!
For those who don’t recognise the original, Ophelia by Sir John Everett Millais, in London’s Tate Gallery. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ophelia_%28painting%29
by OzPol Tragic on May 17, 2012 at 7:25 am
confessions
Pyne has to front up eventually
by victoria on May 17, 2012 at 7:27 am
Victoria
The current performance of Aussie media doesn’t instill confidence.
by Dee on May 17, 2012 at 7:28 am
We now know Poodle Pyne had a beer with Ashby, then text him, now email him, what else do they do that we dont know of, #justasking #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 17, 2012 at 7:28 am