Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Very good point SK – will be very hard and expensive to remove the carbon tax and compensation once it’s in
better get to work, have a great day All
by womble on May 15, 2012 at 9:26 am
Ged Kearney is on.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 9:31 am
Reprieve for Gillard, but the clouds on the horizon are Craig Thomson & July 1.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 15, 2012 at 9:32 am
Did Sophie forget Colin Howard QC? We goldfish haven’t.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 9:32 am
C@tmomma @ 356,
Onya!
by fiona on May 15, 2012 at 9:33 am
Tim Costello was totally out of line. He expressed all his conern about the mental health and welfare of Craig Thomson after calling him a liar on national TV, He should have told the questioner to let the justice system decide.
I will remind Reverend Costello of the words from the Bible, ‘Judge not lest ye be judged’.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 15, 2012 at 9:36 am
I get the feeling we are going to see a Howard style government advertising blitz, especially from July 1 onwards right up until the election in 2013. Which I expect will have a positive impact for the Labor party.
If the federal government once again becomes one of the big sources of advertising revenue for the struggling TV stations it will be interesting to see if their editorial policies are nuanced as a result.
by deflationite on May 15, 2012 at 9:39 am
A positive sign for Labor however I don’t believe it’s all down to a budget bounce. Personally I think it’s more an indication people are disgusted by the overreaction by the Libs to the Thomson and Slipper issues. Basically when they get what they want they are still not satisfied and demand more. Time to back off and let the process play out as it the proper way to deal with these things. The Shorten issue was very grubby and should never be tolerated.
Anyway things are looking less grim for Labor today than they were yesterday
by davidwh on May 15, 2012 at 9:41 am
guytaur – Riley must have been swamped with responses to his Ch7 report on the Govt. ads last night. Serves him right. The words ‘çarbon tax’ don’t appear in the legislation and I bet he was reminded of that.
by BH on May 15, 2012 at 9:42 am
Ged Kearney opening the conference.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 9:43 am
Just in case it gets nuked, I posted the following comment on the Puff Adder’s diatribe at The Punch:
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/voters-wont-forget-the-way-labor-has-conducted-itself/
by Dan Gulberry on May 15, 2012 at 9:44 am
fiona@404,
ops
Thank You.
Though I am no BISON Herder. Others do that job way better than me. I’m just a ‘feel of it’ kind of person.
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:45 am
Without wanting to open up the whole argument again, it’s a pretty weak argument to suggest that the word ‘tax’ has to appear in legislation for it to be legislation imposing taxation.
by ltep on May 15, 2012 at 9:46 am
Jebus wept!
ops it was meant to be. 
ops
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:47 am
Ged sticking it to the msm.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 9:47 am
Aaarrrggghhh!!! : oops. Thats the last time I try that. It’s too embarassing. : oops
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:48 am
I give up.
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:48 am
Predictably a lot of getting carried away with an obviously outlier poll result.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 15, 2012 at 9:49 am
Dan,
You were nuked.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 9:49 am
Dan Gulberry@410,
Thank you for keeping up the good fight against insurmountable odds.
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:51 am
You really are a dickhead
by Tom Hawkins on May 15, 2012 at 9:52 am
I just want to again say how wonderful Penny Wong was at the end of QANDA last night.
Honest, open-hearted, direct. Well done.
by bluegreen on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 am
Thornleigh Labor Man@417,
How’s the Kevin Rudd revival going for you? Labor can’t get ahead without him,huh? And when they do, it’s just an outlier. Pathetic.
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 am
This article, by John Watson a senior Fairfax writer, was linked to earlier but I thought this quote from it deserved a special look as it summarises the current situation we are in brilliantly…
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/get-the-facts-and-figures-right–there-is-no-debt-crisis-20120514-1ymwg.html#ixzz1uslmGDV7
by joe2 on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 am
DG
Great effort. Hope it does not get nuked!
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 am
by Leroy on May 15, 2012 at 9:54 am
Note the headline.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/budget-bounce-for-labor-in-latest-poll-20120515-1ynmq.html
by guytaur on May 15, 2012 at 9:56 am
I can’t find info on the sample size. If it is about 2,000, the margin of error is about 2%. If it is about 1,000, the margin is 3%. A change from 59-41 to 55-45 would be statistically significant (i,e, 95% probability of a real change in expressed voting intentions) even for the smaller sample size. It means that the situation for Labor has changed from catastropic to merely awful.
by Mr Rabbit (aka Steve 777) on May 15, 2012 at 9:57 am
Hmm. Surprisingly, my comment did get published.
by Dan Gulberry on May 15, 2012 at 9:57 am
http://www.mooneevalleyweekly.com.au/news/local/news/general/excouncillor-eyeing-melbourne-seat/2554927.aspx
by Leroy on May 15, 2012 at 9:58 am
Evan, your mention of predictability is a bit rich. And I know I took the bait.
by ltep on May 15, 2012 at 9:59 am
How about Kevin Rudd’s latest attempt at subversive divisive seed-sowing in the media? He says that he has been muzzled by the Prime Minister and her office. The media, dutifully, says, “Is it true you are not allowing Kevin Rudd to speak publicaly?” The Prime Minister simply and directly replies, “Rubbish. He’s free to speak about whatever he wants, whenever he wants.” So, probably Kevin just taking the fact the media don’t want to talk to him anymore and trying the scummy tactic of blaming his opponent for the fact.
Another reason, as if there aren’t enough already, why Kevin Rudd is not suitable to be Prime Minister of this country ever again.
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 9:59 am
The public are fickle when it comes to handing out money, remember Howard’s trickle of sweeteners.
Go back and look at the polls in early 2009 when they handed out $900 cheques, this budget is going to have the same affect.
1.3 million families = 2 million voters plus another 2 million grand parents – 4 million votes, if the polls dont reverse in the next six or seven weeks, I will be very surprised.
Abbott is going to squeal like a stuck pig about the kids bonus adds and this could be the beginning of the end for him.
Howard gave me a $500 bribe in the 2007 election, I placed a $500 @ 3.5 odds with Centrebet that he would lose his seat in parliment, I now get great satisfaction when I switch on my flat screen TV.
by 1934pc on May 15, 2012 at 9:59 am
Rhys Whatsisname and some Ad-Man type on The Drum yesterday were talking about the ad for the Home Assistance package yesterday. This was the ad that didn’t mention the Carbon Tax.
If I’m not mistaken, this ad is about the Education payments, not the Carbon Tax. Education bonuses are paid of out of the MRRT. Whatever…. it didn’t mention the MRRT, either.
The point of criticism was that this was a poor ad because it only said one thing: “We’re giving you money”.
Doesn’t seem like a bad point to make, actually, as a lot of people keep forgetting that: every shock jock and journo trying to make a cheap point about how the Carbon Tax will be on everything, including ice cream and donuts, for example. They never mention assistance.
So, an ad that tells the punters not to worry, the money really is coming, doesn’t seem like a bad idea to me. In fact, the panel’s chief criticism – “It’s only got one message: Money” – is actually the ad’s actual, y’know, point.
I cast my mind back to the GST ads, the ones that used Joe Cocker singing Unchain My Heart. They didn’t mention the GST either.
by Bushfire Bill on May 15, 2012 at 10:00 am
Dan,
It was indeed. I must have checked too early.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 10:00 am
Ms Kearney is classy.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 10:01 am
+4% – impressive. That’ll stir the natives up. Human hope is an amazingly powerful thing isn’t it.
Shame about the PM’s approval.
Bandits at 3 o’clock – Tally Ho.
by Compact Crank on May 15, 2012 at 10:02 am
JG will speak at ca 2PM.
by This little black duck on May 15, 2012 at 10:02 am
JG will be speaking at the ACTU congress around 2 pm today
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 10:02 am
TLM
When it comes to the HIP pocket that will have little or no effect.
by 1934pc on May 15, 2012 at 10:03 am
Re the polls – I think things were a little overheated during the poll period last week. People were getting hit with a lot of Thomson stuff that hadn’t been processed yet. Hot on the heels of Slipper there was a bit of a gut reaction “can’t the ALP do anything right?” feel to it. It’s settled back now to the trend.
But as far as I can tell, that’s it. Three simmering issues – Rudd, Slipper, Thomson – are now dealt with. Everyone’s had a chance to form an opinion and the opposition attacks have been blunted. Asylum seekers are no longer something the Coalition can beat the ALP up with either. As long as no fresh new crisis pops up, it’s not going to get any worse. There may – possibly – be some mud to throw back at the Coalition, especially re Ashby which they’re suddenly very coy about.
But really, the important thing is that the narrative can move back to policy with fewer distractions. So 45-55 is the baseline the ALP have to claw back. Won’t be easy. And the Coalition will do their best to ramp something up, I’m sure. The list of attack-line issues has really shrunk for them, though.
At least that’s something tangible to point to. Belief that the polls will narrow is hard to quantify, it’s a belief but not a reality.
by Aguirre on May 15, 2012 at 10:04 am
It does to me. Government advertising, or ‘information campaigns’ as governments like to refer to them should be about informing the public of complex changes that will affect their rights or obligations under existing law. It shouldn’t just be used to try and pump up the Government’s popularity.
by ltep on May 15, 2012 at 10:05 am
C@tmomma,
Well, she has ‘muzzled’ him to a degree because he no longer has access to material he can leak to the media, therefore they (the media) are not pursuing him as they did prior to the leadership challenge.
by janice2 on May 15, 2012 at 10:06 am
Ducky
Snap!
by victoria on May 15, 2012 at 10:06 am
The presumption of innocence is good enough for Craig Thomson BUT not Julian Assange?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 15, 2012 at 10:07 am
TLM, you were happy for Rudd to accept Thomson’s ‘tainted’ vote in the leadership ballot but not for Gillard to accept his vote now? Internal consistency isn’t your forte.
by ltep on May 15, 2012 at 10:09 am
TLM
Give it a rest!.
by 1934pc on May 15, 2012 at 10:10 am
These Palestinian Hunger Strikers are going to be massive news.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/13/observer-editorial-israel-internment-palestinians
His administrative detention has been renewed 7 times (x 6 months at a tine) and has still not been charged.
Israel has at least 300 such prisoners at any one time since forever.
Court rules he cannot be moved to a hospital after 63 days on hunger strike.
Isn’t the rule of law a wonderful thing?
by JohD on May 15, 2012 at 10:11 am
Why doesn’t the PM offer to have Thompson paired with Mirabella?
by JohD on May 15, 2012 at 10:12 am
janice2@441,
Good point.
by C@tmomma on May 15, 2012 at 10:14 am