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EMRS: Labor 23, Liberal 49, Greens 23 in Tasmania

The latest semi-regular EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has produced a remarkable result, even accounting for its traditional tendency to overstate support for the Greens: parity between Labor and the Greens, who are both at 23% (respectively down four and up five), with the Liberals down three to 49%. On the question of preferred premier, Lara Giddings is down three to 21%, Will Hodgman down one to 43% and Nick McKim up two to 17%. The poll was conducted by telephone from a sample of 1000, with a margin of error of about 3%.

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  • 1
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

    I think this is the first time Labor and the Greens have been equal on EMRS’s new headline figure; in Feb 2011 they were equal on the old one but not on the one being now used. All the same given the well-known issues with EMRS and the Green vote (caused by them redistributing a high undecided response that in practice does not include significant numbers of Green voters) something like 27 Labor and 19 Green is a more realistic reading than 23 all.

    An interesting feature of this one is the high indie vote but I think it is caused by contamination from the LegCo elections; this has been seen before.

  • 2
    Mod Lib
    Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    Kevin:

    How would this translate into seats?

  • 3
    Graeme
    Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    12:6:6 with one for Krishna. Imagine Labor the junior partner in a Green govt… Or two mini opposition leaders.

    And Greek electoral politics looks fluid?

    Just two years ago we thought Labor’s core vote wast 35%. These 20s aren’t just opinion polls – we’ve had two major State elections plus the BCC election.

  • 4
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Kevin:

    How would this translate into seats?

    Roughly 14-15 Lib, 6-7 Labor, 4-5 Green, 0-1 Independent.

    That’s with due adjustment for the EMRS Green vote overestimate factor – and assuming we have 25 seats not 35.

  • 5
    Mod Lib
    Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Thanks, that puts it into perspective for us non-Tasmanians!

  • 6
    meher baba
    Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 6:53 am | Permalink

    There’s no regional breakdown. My gut feeling is that, while the swing to the alive has occurred in all areas, it is far stronger in the north.

    The Lins need to get 13 seats to form a fragioe majority government. One would assume they will get 3 in each of Bass and Braddon. They can’t conceivably get more than 2 in Denison (indeed, if the Lib vote continues to decline as we get nearer the election, they will need to work to hang on to the two they’ve got:: neither Groom or Archer have set the world on fire in their first terms so there won’t be huge personal votes for them).

    So they will need 3 seats in one of Lyons and Franklin (preferably both). It isn’t exactly a lay down misere, even though the Libs are currently acting like it’s one (as, increasingly, are the forest industry lobby groups, who are dragging out negotiations on the IGA in the hope that they won’t be concluded before the next State and Federal elections).

    The Libs confinue strongly to support the 25 member system. But I don’t think it helps them all that much, although I can’t really work out a better system for them. In the long run, the continuing softness of their vote in and around Hobart will present a serious problem for thrm.

  • 7
    meher baba
    Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 6:55 am | Permalink

    PS. Sorry about the typos. PB isn’t a great site for iPhone users.

  • 8
    Mick Quinlivan
    Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    As these figures show the libs could get between 12 to 15 seats…… more likely 12 to 14
    this could still lead to a hung parliament……. with a very strong Green vote the libs will be always at a disadvantage in Tasmania

  • 9
    Charles Richardson
    Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    Don’t apologise for the typos, Meher – I thought “the swing to the alive” was very evocative.

  • 10
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    There’s no regional breakdown.

    Electorate breakdown in Table 4. Though those are really tiny sample sizes.

    What I do for my TT articles is merge them with the previous poll to create a larger sample, unless the previous poll was dramatically different. (I also adjust for the EMRS Green effect). Actually when I did this for the May poll and the February one, I got 13-6-5-1 as the sum of the most likely seat results, though the Libs were very close to getting another one in another three electorates (they had a 64 in Braddon in February which raises the possibility of 4 Libs there, though in this poll it was only 54.) Using the 35 seat system which might be reintroduced I got 18-10-6-1 as most likely but again the Libs are on the edge of up to another three.

    with a very strong Green vote the libs will be always at a disadvantage in Tasmania

    Except when the Labor vote is really awful.

    Even if someone just uses this poll and its electorate breakdowns a Liberal majority is very likely. It’s true they are only just over 50 in Lyons but you don’t need 50 for three seats when the other parties are nowhere near two quotas. Also there is that 5% statewide of supposed independent vote, but except for Denison that shows no sign of being able to translate into seats. So the Libs being a bit below 50 in the headline figure means nothing; they would almost certainly get a majority, perhaps easily.

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