Morgan face-to-face: 59-41 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bass
Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.
The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.
Seat of the week: Bass
Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.
Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.
The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.
Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Boinzo
That is a frightening prospect!
by BK on May 18, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Good book by a muslim writer for book lovers. Allah, Liberty and Love.
The title says it all.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Narev knows vastly more than me on this topic, and he may very well be right, but goodness me this seems to me to be an awfully big call:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/narev-takes-safetyfirst-approach-20120517-1ytoe.html#ixzz1vBYbXOIa
by Laocoon on May 18, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Daretotread
You are incorrect – holding a position of responsibility is factored into an MP’s super, regardless of when the position was held.
We have gone through this with you before, with the relevant provisions being posted here, so there is no excuse for you to keep pushing this furphy.
by zoomster on May 18, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Shows issue is his “f” stop – he can’t find it
by jenauthor on May 18, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Sossman
Can you please explain the process of “the formal submission option” to me. I have never heard of that before.
by MTBW on May 18, 2012 at 12:50 pm
The only thing that will save us from Campbell is his herd of completely light-weight new members. I expect these people to start to exploding like over ripe home made ginger beer bottles left in the laundry in summer….
if we are lucky Campbell will slip on the liquid.
by Boinzo on May 18, 2012 at 12:50 pm
my say, if the Govt wants to they can have one of their own members ask a Dorothy Dixer like:
“Can the Minister inform the House ……..blah, blah,blah”
Give that one to Albo i reckon, sit back, and enjoy.
Speaker would have to be prepared to do some chucking outs though and deal with any number of POO’s.
by imacca on May 18, 2012 at 12:52 pm
boinzo,
Yes, well whatever he is and does the good people of Queensland can wear it, so far as I’m concerned.
They’ve given him his thumping majority and left labor with insufficient numbers to provide any sort of effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government, so sod ‘em.
In fact the sooner he gets stuck-in the better.
It will give the rest of the country a fore-taste of life under Abbott and the Federal Coalition.
by smithe on May 18, 2012 at 12:53 pm
I just wish you would go back to calling yourself Evan again, I find it quite offensive the word “Labor” is included in your PB name
by mari on May 18, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Hilary Styles @HilaryStyles
Thanks Julia @KellyODwyer #auspol http://pic.twitter.com/4T5HbUUx
by Greensborough Growler on May 18, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Boinzo, Newman is definitely showing me that it’s possible to be an awful government from day 1! At least most of the time they try and hold up some semblence of accountability and openness at the start. I think the fact that Newman was never in the parliament as an Opposition member is a large factor in this – I think it’s a good thing for governments and leaders to have some memory of how things were when they were in Opposition to stop them from the worst excesses of government.
by ltep on May 18, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Tony Jones provided more evidence of the ABC’s decline last night.
http://the-abc-has-gone-to-hell.tumblr.com/post/23270452720/lateline-with-tony-jones-17-5-12
by TAHGTH on May 18, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Queensland Beautiful One Day. Police State the Next.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Or deceitful for leaving out Democratic before Labor!
by OzPol Tragic on May 18, 2012 at 12:58 pm
If you’re a member of the QLD ALP party the exact details should be amoung all your emails.
by Sossman on May 18, 2012 at 12:59 pm
“Tony Jones provided more evidence of the ABC’s decline last night.”
Bill Kelty wtte Dont blame the media
by New2This on May 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm
No, definitely wasn’t me.
by Sossman on May 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm
mari
This will make you smile when you see a “Thornleigh Labor Man” comment. Thornleigh Labor Man has a delicious anagram………… Hormonal blathering
by poroti on May 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Sossman
I am not in Queensland but was a member in NSW for thirty odd years. We just went to a meeting and joined.
by MTBW on May 18, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Now here is a story worth discussing.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/silence-doesnt-work-its-time-we-talked-about-suicide-20120518-1yur9.html
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 1:02 pm
I think this is contained to the QLD Branches but I will find out more.
by Sossman on May 18, 2012 at 1:03 pm
@New2This
You can’t be neutral on a moving train.
by TAHGTH on May 18, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Sossman
Thanks!
by MTBW on May 18, 2012 at 1:04 pm
1009
Mari – THORN will do.
by gigi on May 18, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Smithe @ 1008
‘Yes, well whatever he is and does the good people of Queensland can wear it, so far as I’m concerned.’
However do spare a thought to the more than half of us Queenslanders who did not vote for Cant do. I do agree with you however that he should start bringing whatever on to show the excesses of current Australian conservative politics.
As a Qld government employee (ambulance) I fear that my shift penalties are a thought bubble away from being stripped from me.
by hugh moran on May 18, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Why not. we got the BISONs – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/ – stampede them FARQwits
by The Finnigans on May 18, 2012 at 1:06 pm
9poroti
Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink
mari
I just wish you would go back to calling yourself Evan again, I find it quite offensive the word “Labor” is included in your PB name
This will make you smile when you see a “Thornleigh Labor Man” comment. Thornleigh Labor Man has a delicious anagram………… Hormonal blathering]
Yes I will think of that in future as always you make me laugh
Agree with you Oz Pol tragic comment1014
Poroti I asked the couple I stayed with last night about the battle in NZ he didn’t know anything about, and he is a Maori!
by mari on May 18, 2012 at 1:09 pm
No reference in the news bulletins today to Lawlor’s “Long Leave”. I would have thought that would have been a major breaking news item.
Hey MTBW,
I assume Dave Oliver, the new ACTU secretary is a descendant of old Charlie, former AWU and NSW Labor boss in days past. Can you confirm?
by Gorgeous Dunny on May 18, 2012 at 1:09 pm
More – http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/german-finance-minister-wolfgang.html
by dave on May 18, 2012 at 1:09 pm
While I don’t want an Abbott Government, it is getting more and more likely. No use in getting all worried about it though.
The bright side is that, once in opposition, the true rebuilding can begin.
by Sossman on May 18, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Dont laugh, it’s serious, if i were to tell you that G7 used to run the world’s economy – USA, UK, Germany, Japan, France, Italy & Canada
by The Finnigans on May 18, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Former Joe Hockey Staffer getting a Character Reference from Alan Jones.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/joel-betts-jailed-for-11-years-over-the-attempted-murder-of-girlfriend-samantha-holland/story-fn7y9brv-1226360251462
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 1:10 pm
New2This
Sod turning by the fishwife…
Grow up
by Ratsars on May 18, 2012 at 1:11 pm
@Sossman and MTBW. I am pretty sure the review process is for Qld members only as it relates specifically to the recent election loss here. At least that’s what I remember from my reading of the email and letter I received.
Smithe. Thanks for your offer to help us into the life boats!
I sort of agree with you – if there is a silver lining from Newman’s victory it may be that it gives people up this way pause for thought on Abbott. It’s going to be hard to live through taking one for the country though. Let me tell you.
by Boinzo on May 18, 2012 at 1:11 pm
That is a good one as he is a THORN, yuk
by mari on May 18, 2012 at 1:12 pm
It is only a matter of time before people start moving from Queensland to the southern States.
The biggest mistake Labor did while in power was in not restoring an upper house.
Checks and Balances do work,
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Bill Kelty, while a lovely bloke, is from a different time. As is Hawke. And Keating (though I think Keating probably keeps more abreast than some his vintage).
They talk from their experiences but conditions have changed markedly.
As with anyone who has elderly parents etc. you know their world ‘narrows’ as they get older and in this age of technology, they are at a distinct disadvantage.
Kelty’s time did not contend with 24hr news where anything from truth to lies is repeated on a half hourly basis ad infinitum until the ‘next’ scoop comes along.
This continual repetition has the effect of rote learning …. and instils the lie in the minds of less aware people. Even aware people can be indoctrinated via this method.
In Kelty’s day you had newspapers and an evening news bulletin. People generally watched one channel of choice for news, and read one paper of choice for news (many bought papers for sport coverage – what ran on the back page was as important as the front).
There was a narrowing when the newspapers went down from 2 morning/2 evening editions to one or two dailies in each state. NSW for instance is now served by Tele & herald but now both get most of their info from the same source (where once journos sought to get their own stories from well researched journos scooping each other).
Now we have 24 hour news which gets almost all of its info from Newscorpse. We have the vested interests overtly hijacking the news (cf the refusal of free to airs running GetUp’s ads).
I am not saying things weren’t underhanded in days gone by, but the competition between newspapers was more serious thus the need to get to the truth 1st was more important.
My family (husband, FIL, & two brothers in law were all journos & editors) so I know from where I speak.
by jenauthor on May 18, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Nice little piece from the Koukoulas
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/blog
- households spend 11% of disposable income servicing debt and interest repayments, government spends 3%
by zoomster on May 18, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Guytaur. It is only a matter of time before people start moving from Queensland to the southern States.
Nah. Too cold mate. And your coal is crap.
by Boinzo on May 18, 2012 at 1:14 pm
B
One of the successful candidates is 23 years old, lives with his mum, and his previous job was working in a Woolies Deli.
by Boerwar on May 18, 2012 at 1:14 pm
While the various polls show a differential of 10 to 18 points – Labor only needs to move half that number to be in front. 45 to 50 is 5 points, not 10!
by jenauthor on May 18, 2012 at 1:16 pm
http://the-abc-has-gone-to-hell.tumblr.com/post/23270452720/lateline-with-tony-jones-17-5-12
Jones is another of these ABC wallahs who seems to have a fetish for interrupting when it comes to interviewing Labor politicians. Toolman is of course the prime offender in that regard, but to give him his due, Jones is certainly doing his bit.
Perhaps there’s been some sort of Management Memo doing the rounds requiring journos to be rude to ALP pollies.
It’s becoming difficult to come to any other conclusion in the circumstances, especially when one considers the dream run invariably afforded to Tory guests and the grovelling obsequiousness Abbott seems to get.
In comprison to the treatment afforded to ALP pollies, the differences couldn’t be starker.
by smithe on May 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/tony-abbott-rebukes-barnaby-joyce-for-describing-peter-slipper-accuser-james-ashby-as-dodgy/story-fndckad0-1226360011333
Naughty Barnaby???
by mari on May 18, 2012 at 1:21 pm
We have gone through this with you before, with the relevant provisions being posted here, so there is no excuse for you to keep pushing this furphy..
Thanks zoomster
by my say on May 18, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Boerwar. Yes. Apparently they told him he could be anything. Even a member of parliament. I blame helicopter parents for the current state of politics.
by Boinzo on May 18, 2012 at 1:22 pm
jenauthor
That is why I have major hopes for conclusions from debate informed by the Convergence Review and Leveson and other Inquiries overseas.
There is a good momentum to change media law to regulate to ensure real freedom of the press is restored. Freedom from Murdoch. Freedom to pursue truth and justice.
Keep governments accountable and uphold freedom and democracy. Without regulation to restore true competition in the media and some basic standards to ensure truth telling presenting issues as they are we will lose our democracy as politicians end up being forced to collude with vested interests instead of the public good.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 1:22 pm
I wonder what it is in the Abbott household.
by BK on May 18, 2012 at 1:22 pm
My say, re your earlier comment. Isn’t it better if Slipper stays stood aside on full pay and leaves the Opposition one down on their numbers? I doubt he’d be giving them a lot of help from the cross benches but he’s certainly not one of ours from the heart, as it were. Anyway it gives him lots of free time to dream up an ever more effective revenge!
It’s nice to think this nasty little Liberal party strategy is having a ricochet effect. You’d think that Abbott with his shooters’ arms safety background and a bit of imagination might have anticipated something like this.
by PatriciaWA on May 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm
How is another election going to solve Greece’s problem & how much it costs. Start selling more Nana Moussaka & Demis Rissoles, that’s how
by The Finnigans on May 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm