Morgan face-to-face: 59-41 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bass
Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.
The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.
Seat of the week: Bass
Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.
Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.
The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.
Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Federal Primary Votes: ALP 23 (-7) L/NP 56 (+5)
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Dan, 2 days ago. GM pulled out from Facebook advertising, saying it was useless. That is not very good timing for Fakebook.
by The Finnigans on May 18, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Dan G. to add to that, internet ‘trends’ are fast moving and rapidly evolving… chances of facebook being the coolest thing in 2020?? not very high…
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:28 pm
1m GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Carbon Tax: Support 25 Oppose 72 #auspol
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:28 pm
1m GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Carbon Tax: Support 25 Oppose 72 #auspol
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:29 pm
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 36 (-6) L/NP 64 (+6) #auspol
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:29 pm
5% would be a serious hit to Europe. And it might not stop there.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2012/may/16/cost-greek-exit-euro-emerges
by Diogenes on May 18, 2012 at 10:31 pm
ALP must doing quite well in other states if QLD is this bad….
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Rossmore
I posted this tweet over a week ago from AFR (fairfax) journo based in Canberra
It is now the 18th May.
I remain hopeful all will be revealed
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:31 pm
imacca
NEVAH!
by fiona on May 18, 2012 at 10:32 pm
They really poisoned this Well. Seemingly beyond the point of no return. Think they have made their task impossible. They made all the exactly wrong choices commencing 2010. Labor are in danger of becoming a laughing stock aka NSW Labor.
by Thomas Paine. on May 18, 2012 at 10:34 pm
It will not be disorderly. It will be a simple goodbye.
The rest of the Eurozone will do High Dudgeon; to no avail.
Aside: why are dudgeons always high?
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:35 pm
finns and middle man
yep, both excellent points as well.
by Dan Gulberry on May 18, 2012 at 10:35 pm
thanks for the update Thomas.
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Bye bye swan. Gone up in smoke like his surplus.
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:35 pm
That Galaxy poll means jack shizen this far out from the election.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:36 pm
You don’t know that.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Anyone seen a Fed Galaxy Poll taken in any of the other states?
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Gee, the Painful Pavlovian Doggy sure lives up to its laboratory upbringing. On cue, on time.
by The Finnigans on May 18, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Time for all of us on the Left of centre, including comrades in the Greens, to put aside our differences. Time to draw a line in the sand. The Libs are prepared to do whatever it takes to bring down a democratically elected Government. Time for collective action, time to get very angry.
None shall shatter the crystal spirit.
by Rossmore on May 18, 2012 at 10:38 pm
means Jack Shizenhausen
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:39 pm
What is obvious with that poll is that the CT is doing the bulk of the damage atm. It is hated up there.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:40 pm
How are your statistics and psephology?
I just love FACTS!
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:41 pm
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
@Rod_Hagen 800 QLD voters, 15-16 May. #Galaxy #auspol
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:41 pm
u meanz like this?
http://twitpic.com/9m5xi8/full
by The Finnigans on May 18, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Gary. all this poll tells us is that fear of the unknown unsettles people. the unkown will become known over the next 12-18 months.
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:42 pm
TLBD
Just put dudgeon into google to see exactly what a dudgeon (high, low or mid-range) is.
The 9th entry is for:
Gus Dudgeon.
by Dan Gulberry on May 18, 2012 at 10:42 pm
No body cares about polls just after an election in QLD.
QLD will get what they deserve.
by zoidlord on May 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Rossmore
Apology in advance – but the “line in the sand” thing has to be one of the stupidest lines/memes in history.
A line in the sand will disappear because of the (1) wind, and/or (2) tide.
So “a line in the sand” means and limits NOTHING at all atall.
Now, could we get on with using some precise language?
by fiona on May 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Dan,
Gus did high, sad to say.
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Agreed.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 pm
fiona,
My grandkids draw lines in the sand …
… come the tide …
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:45 pm
exactly zoid. this poll is still showing the post-electoral embrace QLD has made of right wing politics. in this case they think they know what they’re going to get… so they feel very relaxed and comfortable…
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Who cares about Queensland?
Sorry but there’s a tolerance limit in relation to bad polling and that’s well over the limit.
That’s pretty much no resources in Queensland whatsoever. Rudd’s seat would be lineball.
Why Gillard’s in Adelaide constantly is beyond me. She should be in Queensland as much as possible
by spur212 on May 18, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Why do Galaxy do a federal poll in one state and that state is always Qld?
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I understand our Prime Minister is flying out tomorrow to important international thingies.
Which noodle factory is Tone off to?
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:47 pm
fiona, please!
by joe2 on May 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
TLBD,
Exactly – and they don’t expect them to last forever.
by fiona on May 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
over the next 12-18 months… the truth of the carbon tax will become evident, as will the truth of life under CanDo…
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Thats smart. Lateline has Irish author of comedy bent to talk history to today and recession.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
joe2
Please what?
by fiona on May 18, 2012 at 10:48 pm
You can’t persuade people the CT is not as scary as one imagines. They have to live it.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Victoria
The big yarn Marcus Priest was talking about on May 10th was drug money being fed into the surplus
http://www.afr.com/p/national/budget/drug_money_fed_into_budget_surplus_2641OEUudjL97jWk6k6DqI
by spur212 on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Gary. Courier Mail commission them. QLD like to see themselves as QLDers first, Australian second. So of course the local Mordor rag wants to show them how they (and only they) are ‘feeling’… its a parochial thing…
by middle man on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 pm
From wiki:
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Qld continue to demonstrate their removal from any sense of objective reality.
by confessions on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Cando, like Ted, will have to make some very unpopular decisions. We know how Ted is going.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 pm
What carbon tax? Gillard has removed it from history and the adds. Apparently we are getting compo for putting up with Labor. well mabe not, but you would not no what the hell Gillard has decided to sprinkle cash over you for at the moment by viewing the adds on tv.
by rummel on May 18, 2012 at 10:51 pm
This is a good one from Noam. Not very popular here, though, spose.
by joe2 on May 18, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Hmmm
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:51 pm