Morgan face-to-face: 59-41 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bass
Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.
The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.
Seat of the week: Bass
Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.
Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.
The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.
Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Crikey…Glenn Dyer …11/05/2012
I would suggest the problem is with Sky and Richardson.
by Ian on May 18, 2012 at 10:17 am
five day hearing. Ha! for what evidence!
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:18 am
How about the possibility that it’s conservatives that watch the show so turn off when Labor people are interviewed.
Also has this theory been tested against Liberal politicians, such as Hockey and /or Robb getting on there and talking economics?
What are the viewer ratings anyway?
So many questions.
by Gary on May 18, 2012 at 10:19 am
Gary
Pretty much all politicians just seek to deliver talking points. That alone turns most people off.
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:22 am
My understanding of the Ashby case is that if he, Ashby, is suing the Commonwealth doesn’t that mean he is , in essence, suing all the citizens of Australia. If he is why isn’t the Government making a point of that?
by Ian on May 18, 2012 at 10:27 am
SMH onine Heading:
But the article says:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/shorten-returns-fire-after-bhp-chiefs-attack-20120517-1ytoi.html#ixzz1vAyWAtqX
The Age online on the other hand says:
To me there is a world of difference between telling a lie and a liar. there is also a world of difference between a liar and the claims are lies.
Modern day journalists – in my opinion – are ten times worse than politicians. Politicians, I know are disliked by the public, but I have worked with many politicians and whilst some of them are bad, the vast majority of them try to do good for their electorate and community. Journalist are all about themselves and most of them make little contributions to societies.
by adam abdool on May 18, 2012 at 10:28 am
Ian, the Commonwealth, as a legal entity, doesn’t mean ‘all the citizens of Australia’.
by ltep on May 18, 2012 at 10:28 am
Surprise, surprise……………..Thomson’s going to blame it all on Kathy Jackson next Monday, according to today’s Fairfax papers.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 18, 2012 at 10:30 am
If she’s to blame, then so he should.
by Bushfire Bill on May 18, 2012 at 10:31 am
Just read the latest Jessica Irvine article.
‘sigh’… She’s amazing.
by Sossman on May 18, 2012 at 10:31 am
A poll shows Labor 18 points behind, yet people in here are sanguine and completely relaxed.
You can bet that if the shoe was on the other foot, there’d be mass gloating about the imminent death of the Liberal Party.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 18, 2012 at 10:33 am
TLM
Monday is Thomson day.
Today is Asby case in court day.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 10:33 am
The court has rejected the application for a fast trial by Ashby’s lawyers
Commonwealth and Slippers lawyers flagging a strike out and abuse of application claim
Getting that from the AFR’s Marcus Priest on twitter
by spur212 on May 18, 2012 at 10:33 am
evan,
One of your goats needs a service.
by Greensborough Growler on May 18, 2012 at 10:34 am
Alan Jones helping out Kathy Jackson with her $40,000 legal bills.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 18, 2012 at 10:34 am
Isn’t the Commonwealth of Australia the old Regina?
The queen did have some uses after all – at least the ignorant msm (and the citizens for that matter) wouldn’t keep making the mistake of confusing the Commonwealth with the government of the day.
by kezza2 on May 18, 2012 at 10:34 am
Beg your pardon. Possible abuse of process claim
The rejection of a fast trial raises questions about the unusual application
We might be looking at Godwin Grech 2 here
by spur212 on May 18, 2012 at 10:35 am
I suppose you reckon that’s a good thing.
It’s not. It’s a disaster for Jackson if true.
by Bushfire Bill on May 18, 2012 at 10:36 am
·
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:36 am
TLM your not a Labor person I can tell.
by zoidlord on May 18, 2012 at 10:37 am
You side is 18 points in front yet you’re a nervous wreck. Now head on back to Bolt’s blog before you get dumped on again.
by Tom Hawkins on May 18, 2012 at 10:38 am
zoidlord
Correct
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:38 am
John Howard would love you.
Yes, lets put as much pressure as possible on anybody that would sue the state for wrong doing. It just shouldn’t be allowed hey.
by Thomas Paine. on May 18, 2012 at 10:38 am
He is totally f cked
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:39 am
bg
Is it that bad?
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:39 am
Also Ashby’s lawyers wanted a jury to decide the case instead of a federal court judge
What went through my mind as I read that was “surely he’s not basing that on political opinion polls”
by spur212 on May 18, 2012 at 10:39 am
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 10:40 am
I want to see the Greens do their election launch in Whyalla
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:41 am
You call that fluoro, Tone? This is fluoro!
by This little black duck on May 18, 2012 at 10:42 am
spur212
We know this case is purely political
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:42 am
spur212
Juries can be swayed by media coverage much more than judges can.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 10:43 am
Vic
Well that was my read of it from the moment I read his first claim. His second claim was worse.
Last time someone tried this ontwas the commbank sexual harrassment suit. She tried to win through a PR war and ended up with 5 million in costs.
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:43 am
Is Ashby in court? If so, does he look fat in his polo shirt?
by Bushfire Bill on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 am
Sossman, did you attend the forum last night. I was waiting for Lynchpin to call out for me. lol. If so, what was your opinion.
by MsAdventure on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 am
TLBD
That outfit makes even the PM’s hair look like it flouro
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 am
bg,
I’d like to see a Community Cabinet held in Whyhalla on July1.
by Greensborough Growler on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 am
Holy Sh*t. Thomas Paine wrote a post without the words Kevin or Rudd in it!
by Boinzo on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 am
Bushfire Bill: Thomson & Williamson are taken care of by the ALP & the union movement, but Jackson isn’t.
What does that tell you about the priorities of Labor?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 18, 2012 at 10:44 am
spur212@875
Obvious you’d want a jury trial for ‘trial by media’ to work.
by ShiftyPhil on May 18, 2012 at 10:45 am
bg
I am very sure that this claim is purely political, but Ashby and his lawyers are trying it on. They obviously feel there is something to be gained.
by victoria on May 18, 2012 at 10:45 am
Very constructive. A lot of candid feedback from people very passionate about the Party. A strong base to rebuild from I guess.
by Sossman on May 18, 2012 at 10:45 am
BB
The fast trial from Ashby’s lawyers has been rejected. Cth and Slipper’s lawyers moving for a strike out and possible abuse of process claim
by spur212 on May 18, 2012 at 10:46 am
In regards to that Possum tweet,
I just sent the following to the proprietor of the store concerned:
by smithe on May 18, 2012 at 10:46 am
In that PM presser amidst all the flouro I missed the sod turning.
by guytaur on May 18, 2012 at 10:46 am
I’m sure it’s already been discussed, but I think a very good comment was made in this ABC article:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-18/ashby-hits-back-ahead-of-court-hearing/4018480
It would also seem to me that further publicity would only serve to have the comments of Senators Carr and Joyce republished.
by ltep on May 18, 2012 at 10:47 am
Vic
Its like a bluff in poker when everyone knows they have got no cards.
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:48 am
TP #872, yes agree.
A very silly post Ian #854 – would you /will you be running the same line about suing all Australia if the worst comes to the worst next election and we have public servants trying to defend their rights against the Commonwealth under new management?
Particularly out of place in an employment matter.
And even in a constitutional case like the tobacco plain packaging matter, while I think it is clearly in the public interest that the case not succeed, it is very much in the public interest that it be able to be brought. Government of laws not men and all that.
by Marrickville Mauler on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 am
On my Sky News show, I interviewed the Treasurer the night after the budget. This was considered by those in the know to be a good get. Unfortunately, the viewers didn’t see it that way. About three minutes into the Swan interview, there was an almost unprecedented turn-off. No matter that I thought it was a good budget and could finally say something nice about the government, viewers didn’t want to view. Having heard the rumours that free-to-air television current affairs shows avoid interviews with Gillard like the plague, I think I now
SO WHERE ARE THE EYE CAMERAS SITUATED IN THE TV THAT WATCH US CHAMGE CHANNELS.
LOL
No doubt they are on the way though.’
by my say on May 18, 2012 at 10:50 am
Speaking of “He who shall not be named on Poll Bludger” – he’s interviewing Bob Katter at the Sydney Writer’s Festival today.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 18, 2012 at 10:51 am
Or you go to the relevant departmental officer and say I feel like I am being harrassed what you think I should do. I am pretty sure it wouldnt involve two forensic experts.
by bluegreen on May 18, 2012 at 10:52 am