Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Seems the media want protection for freedom of speech,as long as it lets them persucute anybody they choose ,free from the law to persucute,without censure as they are the last fucking word on what is right or wrong or who is guilty.
Anyone who buys anything from such media has given up their right to free speech,as they support freedom of the press at any cost,usually none to themselves but stuff anyone else who is a victim.like the holly child family.
Support of abbotts liberals will only bring persecution to those who do not agree with a brandis interadapttion of the law and abbotts utter crudeness
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 1:20 am
JohD,
Why were the amounts recredited?
Is there actually any evidence that the was actually spent? Did FWA have the statements?
by IMOHO on May 22, 2012 at 1:36 am
JohD at 970
“I think Thomson did a pretty good job of setting out his opening arguments today. A whole lot of people are feeling a whole lot more uncomfortable as a result.
He is the kind of hero I like: taking on all comers, smart, thinking outside the box and the underdog. If he goes down, it will be for some insignificant side issue not even seriously pursued in the original investigation. Some kind of booby prize for the punters who lose their shirts, that they will present up as a defense for calling him “scum”.”
A very quick read on my part, all. Despite the difficulty of learning much during my sojourn at a non pol house, did see Craig Thomson today.
Think your summation does it for me, JohD.
Thanks.
by crikey whitey on May 22, 2012 at 1:52 am
Hartcher brings out the hyperbole:
by rishane on May 22, 2012 at 2:19 am
(chnappi Posted Tuesday, May 22, 2012 at 12:07 am | Permalink
If I could get 50 signatures I would run for the senate.
My Policy would be to deport abbott.)
Schnappi.
You have bought so many smiles to pb, love your humour, and comments.
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 2:48 am
Reads one line of hatcher,
Decides not to bother
Yawn
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 2:50 am
news conference with the pm on now sky
by mickt on May 22, 2012 at 6:28 am
morning all
very disappointed that local member rob o has aligned himself with the lynch mob – will wait to hear what he has to say on bfast – especially disappointed as he and family have also been victims of vicious lnp smear attacks
by Lyne Lady on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 am
I don’t really see how a FWA report is a ‘vicious lnp smear attack’.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 7:05 am
Not even with the Lawler-Jackson partnership? With the whole report unsubstantiated allegations?
by political animal on May 22, 2012 at 7:11 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
He does seem to be a good sort of bloke.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/former-imf-chief-investigated-over-gang-rape-20120521-1z1bg.html
A fairly comprehensive article by Jess Wright about the Thomson speech.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/opposition-media-unleashed-a-lynch-mob–thomson-20120521-1z025.html
The word “stench” can cross political boundaries, can’t it.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/complaint-may-be-revenge-say-heffernan-colleagues-20120520-1yz2x.html
Ron Tandberg with a good one.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe on the Thomson speech.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 7:16 am
Ladylyn
Was there a link to robb’oakshott, regarding late line
Will you be giving him a calll
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 7:19 am
Lawler had nothing to do with the investigation. If the findings are the report are inaccurate it still doesn’t amount to a ‘vicious lnp smear attack’. FWA has just conducted an investigation that the Parliament has vested power in it to hold and released a report of that investigation. The findings carry the same weight as any other report of its nature.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 7:19 am
Itep,
The report is not a smear attack, its interpreting that report and passing judgement outside of the courts that us the smear. I agree with Thomson, if Abbott and the LNP are prepared to trash the basis of democratic values buy ignoring the presumption of innocence to get into power what does that indicate about what they’ll do when they do get power.
NO person in Australian history has shown the contempt for democratic process that Abbott has. Howard proved that the Liberal parties modus operandus was to destroy the unions and through doing this defund the Labor party and remove effective opposition. Luckily for us Howard had a belief in Democracy, I don’t think Abbott shares this.
by Smaug on May 22, 2012 at 7:19 am
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/05/lessons-craig-thomson-gives-strong-account-of-himself-but-those-advising-silence-in-the-past-were-dead-wrong/
Thomson gave the speech of his political life today. And in that speech – in its quality – we see great tragedy. VEX NEWS
When i was re reading the above, the sentance included in the piece stood out for me
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 7:26 am
Tories Work Choices UK style from the guardian.
Whitehall is expecting Downing Street to abandon its support later this summer for one of the central recommendations in a controversial report by a Tory donor which called for companies to be given the right to sack workers at will.
A lack of support from business leaders and a furious backlash from Vince Cable, who has warned ministers that the proposal would leave a “dead hand of fear” hanging over employees, is expected to persuade No 10 that the proposal should be quietly dropped later this summer.
The prime minister was giving no public indication of a climbdown last night when he said he was still interested in the Beecroft proposal that employers should be allowed to sack unproductive staff without explanation, known as no fault dismissal.
by adam abdool on May 22, 2012 at 7:28 am
If someone described for me the Herald Sun coverage of CT’s statement I would have had trouble believing them. Now that I’ve seen it I still can hardly believe it.
If Thomson is found not guilty then the Herald Sun will pay maximum damages in a defamation case. What they have done today should result in millions in damages though I’ve no idea what the maximum amount might be.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 7:29 am
Good morning all,
Well, it is only my opinion but I have concluded Craig Thomson is the victim of a vicious lynch mob. There has been too little scrutiny placed on his accusers and the so called evidence against Thomson has been whitewashed to the extent that the trails leading to that evidence is either blurred or removed from the scene.
Then, it seems very suspicious to me that part of the HSU has been a law unto itself for many years, is known to be corrupt and yet the only allegations and witch-hunt is centred around just one man who happens to now be an MP in a minority government. Then there is FWA whose 2IC is a Liberal (with connections to Abbott) and a partner of Kathy Jackson who is heading the allegations of corruption against Thomson and instigated the trial by media from day one.
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 7:29 am
I suspect the moderates in the Liberal party believe they can control or even replace Abbott once they get into power. Unfortunately history indicates that as often as not said moderates become the first political victims of a demogogue once power is achieved. Whereas Labor believes in Social democracy (often called communism by the less educated, more hysterical right) the extreme right of the Libs believe the plebs should be led for their own good. Elections are annoying things to be manipulated to demonstrate how much the people love the job being done for them.
by Smaug on May 22, 2012 at 7:34 am
And about time!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/21/rush-limbaugh-ratings-drop_n_1532807.html
American religion at its finest. Honestly, is there no end to their stupidity and bigotry?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/21/north-carolina-pastor-gay-rant-starvation_n_1533463.html
Mike Papantonio on the brain of the Republican. Applies in Australia too?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101729950
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 7:36 am
Smaug
Agree,
When listening , it crossed my mind , what a good minister he would of made a talent lost
, i am rather hoping he will be taken back in to the fold
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 7:39 am
Smaug,
I agree that there are some in the Liberal Party who believe they can control/replace Abbott once they get into power, but they are few and far between. These are the remnants of the moderates left after the Howard purge and they will be wiped out completely under the leadership of Abbott in or out of government.
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 7:44 am
A couple of years wearing a hair shirt and doing penance with a birch branch will do his catholic soul any amount of good. Hell, I’m even prepared to take the time out to help by swinging the birch for him.
by Smaug on May 22, 2012 at 7:46 am
Datsun? Facebook is in trouble. Share price drops 11% to $34 from $38. It turned out the underwriters had to prop it up after launching
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 7:50 am
They claim that Thomson’s speech raises more questions than answers, yes on the relationships between FWA Report, Lawler & Jackson #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 7:50 am
Morning All
Looks like the Thomson saga will drag on a bit longer yet – Oakeshott seems to want look at the FWA investigation. He isn’t willing to support a suspension from parliament but wants to test if Thomson misled parliament or if the FWA report is wrong.
Personally – Craig Thomson is hardly some kind of hero and I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him but he deserves his day in court. Hopefully when that happens, people like Jackson get their just desserts as well. The issues in the HSU didn’t start or end with Thomson
Greens are clearly on the right track with the call for some kind ICAC at the federal level, badly needed imo
by womble on May 22, 2012 at 7:52 am
I think Oakeshott on Lateline last night nailed it in regards to the Thomson issue.
This is not simply about Thomson personally or whether he gets charged or not or whether people think he’s innocent or not. This reflects extremely badly on the political process and parliamentarians.
Thomson was right yesterday. He should have given a statement to parliament way earlier than he did regardless of what his lawyers were telling him. On top of that, Gillard should’ve let him go while it was in the air. Granted, there’s the instability of the parliament, but by leaving it, she’s let the air around the thing become very toxic (my understanding is Thomson was prepared to move to the cross benches when it arose. She should’ve agreed). I think this unfortunately will reflect badly on Gillard regardless of how this ends up.
As for Abbott, Thomson is correct: he’s not just unfit to be PM, he’s unfit to be an MP. He would’ve been so much better off letting the FWA speak for itself and letting Thomson drift in the breeze, but he couldn’t keep it in his pants. I think there is a legitimate case to ask him whether he would bring back the Star Chamber if he became PM and what he thinks of the Haebus Corpus Act of 1640. On top of that, the Heffernan saga has exposed his double standard on this. He is correct to defend Heffernan, but he should’ve treated Thomson with the same respect. This is not going to end well for Abbott regardless of the outcome. Not only that, but his relationship with Michael Lawler has now been exposed in the AFR today and his office is denying he had any involvement in Abbott’s political behaviour, which is interesting due to Abbott’s public support of his girlfriend Kathy Jackson.
Finally, there’s the issue of the media. This issue has nothing to do with public opinion or the views of certain investigative journalists and commentators. This is a matter for the courts. But the coverage of this has been heavily biased and not based on the actual issues (most people probably don’t even realise, there are no criminal charges against Mr Thomson at this point nor are there any criminal allegations in the FWA report). This has been all about whether the government will survive or not. Only last week did one journalist mention that the statute of limitations on Thomson may have expired meaning there’s unlikely to be any action against him. This case has seriously exposed the media.
We are very fortunate that this is happening in the hung parliament as the independents can bring pressure to bear on both sides to make sure that this sort issue is never dealt like this again and politicians can be held to a higher standard. Neither side wins on the issue. The ALP government will not fall over this which is the main issue to most paying attention.
by spur212 on May 22, 2012 at 7:52 am
If only a half of what Thomson alleged yesterday are proven there will be plenty of excrement hitting the fan.
In many places!
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 7:53 am
my say
if you go through just in abc news then to programs you can watch last night’s lateline… however, i have just listened to rob’s interview with fran kelly on breakfast and felt he was very balanced and i personally feel a lot better – he articulated his thoughts very well – saying the opps also had people who would be turfed if they pushed for thomson’s suspension. i have tweeted him to this effect. he really is a man of principle whose family has also been the victim of lnp slurs…
by Lyne Lady on May 22, 2012 at 7:53 am
BK
Brain?
by Dan Gulberry on May 22, 2012 at 7:54 am
Tom
Is that the one bk has linked
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 7:55 am
BK (again)
I think Thomson’s lawyers are planning their retirement already.
by Dan Gulberry on May 22, 2012 at 7:55 am
Dan
I hope so.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 7:56 am
Lyne lady,
Pleased”to hear”that.””good you tweeted support.
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 7:57 am
Who would have thunk that both @michellegrattan & @frankellyabc said #Thomson will still be a problem for PM Gillard. Fancy that.
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 7:57 am
spur212
Good post
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:00 am
Don’t forget the cilice. If it’s too small for him we can always say “You look fat in that one, Tony,” thus causing further mental anguish (worked for James Ashby).
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:00 am
Btw
Morning bludgers!!
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:01 am
Does sound like they’ve been drinking vinegar, doesn’t it? Ditto for Hartcher.
I think Thomson nailed it yesterday: lynch mob.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:03 am
LL
Is Oakey going to recommend that the FWA report be looked at in more detail?
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:04 am
Spur212,
The tragedy of all this is that the media, the government and the opposition will all survive with only a bit of skin off their noses but Thomson and his family will wear the deep scars for the rest of their lives, and all because he’s an MP in a minority government.
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:05 am
Is the ABC using “so-called” appropriate?
http://the-abc-has-gone-to-hell.tumblr.com/post/23501223284/to-the-abc-its-so-called
by TAHGTH on May 22, 2012 at 8:05 am
The carbon price scare cupboard must be getting a little bare.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/carbon-tax-may-hurt-natural-disaster-zones-20120521-1z1f0.html#ixzz1vXo317gt
by poroti on May 22, 2012 at 8:06 am
And there’s is the rotten to the core Abbott still out in the media making his own accusations and playing judge. Honestly, I think he should be taken out on the lawns of Parliament House and tarred and feathered.
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:07 am
I’m not surprised that the vast majority in here bought the Thomson bucket of BS.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 22, 2012 at 8:07 am
Spur, i think julia only made the’ mistake”of being a caring human being,
Labor is”more than a party for’most true beleivers its a family,
And being a woman { i have no idea if u are he / she,)
We have different emotions, yes some cold hearted woman could cut their child their friend a drift
And i have had this happen by a friend,
But i see julia in another way she is caring for the human spirit.’
And wouod of found this hard, any one thinking through the human side may see this,
I my self would find it very difficut no to have added, to his worries, loyalty should be shone.
I was rather dissapointed when she did.””in fact as i have expressed i would’like to see him back in the fold.
I have read , things like if found guilty, this morning’ iwas not aware there was a police
Investigation going on as all things seem to be civil.
Some one may like to explain this situation to me
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 8:08 am
Another dose of reality for the Thomson/Gillard fans:
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/any-questions-member-for-dobell-raises-a-few-during-his-answers-20120521-1z1ec.html
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 22, 2012 at 8:09 am
People with his personality janice have no concept they are wrong, ” they always want and must have the last say,
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 8:12 am
I’m not surprised that you are still a smelly turd – some things never change
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 8:12 am
vic
from what he said on bfast – yes that is what he would like – a lot of murk swirling around there imo but one thing he did stress that if the opps call for suspension of thomson they are in dangerous territory as there are some on their side who would also be eligible for that ‘privilege’. today will be a very interesting day in parl. i believe albo is right on top of all this and leaves pyne for dead on process.
by Lyne Lady on May 22, 2012 at 8:12 am