Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Onewonders if thorn liberal man , really thinks most of us read any thing he says or the links
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 8:13 am
Great bit of sleuthing by JohD last night. Looks very much like Thomson was set up.
by Gorgeous Dunny on May 22, 2012 at 8:15 am
Evan,
You really are a pathetic piece of crap.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 8:15 am
Morning All!
I think the tide has turned on the Craig Thomson matter. It hasn’t gone out yet but I think it is on the turn. However the Opposition appears to have decided to try and do a Moses and turn the waters back.
Tony Abbott on AM convicting Craig Thomson. Again.
“Misused over half a million $ of low-paid workers money.” Hasn’t been proven AFAIK.
“This is someone who has betrayed the low-paid workers he represented.” Didn’t sound like like it to me as Craig Thomson outlined what he had done over 17 years for the low-paid workers in the HSU.
“He is in Protective Custody of the Prime Minister.” The sort of low slur that Tony Abbott specialises in.
“In order to protect itself the government is now prepared to trash it’s own creation, FWA.” If the shoe fits FWA should wear it.
by C@tmomma on May 22, 2012 at 8:15 am
Evan,
What I wish for you is that the times comes when you walk in Thomson’s shoes and you are treated in like manner. You are a big fat grub.
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:16 am
Morning all.
Re: Bowen with Fran
Does Bowen receive the evidence on which ASIO bases its assessments? He ought to. I missed a bit but I didn’t hear her ask him.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 8:17 am
What is Hartcher on?
He arrogates to himself the right to decide who’s guilty and who’s not.
What Slipper stench? A few Cab Charge dockets, some crazy allegations – mahy of them dropped from the original edition – that have yet to be tested made by a man who’s disappeared and prefers to communicate through Twitter, via a publicity flack?
Thomson got up and gave a good account of himself yesterday. His plea was simple: that the parliament be used for the purposes for which it was designed, not as a star chamber.
Hartcher’s anguish is self-generated. His newspaper produced the allegations. All the others took it up. Thomson was then subject to unbelieveable bombardment from shock jocks and all other parts of the media. The public, absent a statement by Thomson, absent any examination or challenging of the evidence, was “convinced”.
This is why we don’t have random lynchings, or witch dunkings anymore. It’s why we don’t judge a man’s guilt based on the whim of a mob screaming “Crucify him! Crucify him!”. It’s why we have courts, rules of evidence and precedents in common law. It’s why most of us believe that a man has a right to put his case, confident that the law and society will give him every facility to do so, in the certain knowledge that he is innocent until proven guilty.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/mp-ticked-the-right-boxes-20120521-1z1fg.html#ixzz1vXpofaYt
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:18 am
why doesnt the parliament censure abbott for making these wild accusations , better still why dont they force abbott to make a statement in parliament on why he thinks Thomson is guilty.
Then Abbott would be under the spotlight of misleading the house
by Meguire Bob on May 22, 2012 at 8:19 am
More personal abuse & invective being flung around in here!
Yep, blame the media, blame Kevin Rudd, blame anyone else, but Labor is still 12 points or more behind, and the much eulogised Julia Gillard is a dead weight on the ALP.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 22, 2012 at 8:19 am
If Thomson is innocent until proven guilty………so is Kathy Jackson, yet most people in here have her tried & convicted already.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 22, 2012 at 8:21 am
Evan,
You deserve all the abuse and invective being flung at you. You are a grub so crawl back underground where you belong.
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:23 am
But hasn’t Abbott just said that Thomson is subject of certain findings by FWA? This is just a statement of fact. The weight you put on the findings is a matter of choice. It might be an idea to debate a motion that the House supports certain concepts – such as the rights of a member to represent constituents unless and until they’re disqualified.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 8:24 am
Oh look, EPP has wet the bed again.
by Dan Gulberry on May 22, 2012 at 8:24 am
Look back on the early days of the Liberal Party conducting another inquisition similar to the CT and PS rough justice:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp_l5ntikaU
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 8:26 am
Abbott’s legal model for pursuing Thomson.
http://tinyurl.com/3g3vkm4
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 8:28 am
You know, TLM, you’d probably get more people on your side if you didn’t come across as a smug, insolent prick that only posts disjointed anti-Gillard bile, writes words without saying anything, and refuses to participate in constructive conversation.
But you seem to be one of those people on the internet that get off on negative responses.
Carry on. Knowing that people like you support Rudd is doing him so much favours.
by Von Kirsdarke on May 22, 2012 at 8:29 am
Agree C@t.
For most it would have been the first time they heard him speak. The beginning was fantastic. Those death threats sounded awful. The old coot on the ABC last night saying Thomson was “Just SCUM”, sounded dreadful.
Part of the public’s opinion about him has been generated by his keeping silent. Well, that bubble’s burst now. Speaking out was the best thing he could have done and he saved the best till last: “Lynch mob!”… pointing directly at Abbott.
Thomson now has a voice and I think he did just about as good a job as he could have, under the circumstances.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:30 am
TH/BK
You are both on the same wavelength.
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:30 am
Gorgeous Dunny@1101,
Reading through JohD’s superlative contribution to the debate, and I haven’t finished reading through all of it yet, but what it suggested to me with the payment and then credit of brothel services on some occasions, and putting it together with the statement yesterday by Craig Thomson that he often bulk-booked rooms, could it not be the case that he was also making a prospective booking for someone that was subsequently not taken up?
One thing I do know is that most Union Executives meet weekly, well at least the one I am familiar with does, and they conduct a meeting to attend to business(see? not all Unions are poorly run). So it may well be that the brothel services were provided by the Secretary of the Union for other members of the Executive to take up should they so desire, so to speak. If they don’t then a refund is sought. If they do then the payment goes ahead.
Now, of course, this assessment presages the fact that brothel services were used in some form by the HSU at certain points, as opposed to the other scenario that it was an artifice created to embarass Craig Thomson. Though, it could be a combination of the two. And, of course, it doesn’t make it right that brothel services were provided on the Union dime in the first place.
Also, my friend’s Union has never done that sort of thing.
by C@tmomma on May 22, 2012 at 8:31 am
Tom very haunting in deed.
My imagination was tryi g to decide who the hooded individuals would be,
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 8:32 am
ltep,
“Certain findings by FWA” are still allegations. Why does Abbott think it okay to turn those ‘findings’ based on allegations of the accuser into a guilty verdict when the allegations and the findings have not been tested in a court of law?
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:34 am
Evan,
Your nickname should be shark shit because it’s on the bottom of the ocean and there is nothing lower than that.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 8:35 am
Puffy
I’m guessing you didn’t really mean “protagonist”. A protagonist is the main character in a story.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 8:35 am
Apart from the self flagellation, idiocy also gives evan the deluded belief that he is an intelligent, aware, finger on the pulse sort of guy. As we used to say, in unison, at primary school,….what a fuckin’ wanker.
by Ian on May 22, 2012 at 8:35 am
TLM
Stretching a point – again – re Labor “being 12 points behind”.
In actual fact, about a 6% increase in the PV and better still, an 8% increase – would not only make Labor competitive (at a 6% increase) and would win with 8%.
Admittedly, at the moment, if an election returned the 55/54-45/46 results into seats, then it would be a grim picture.
But, there is no election now, and still a budget and an election campaign to go.
My reading is that the AWOL 6-8% are actually disaffected Labor voters – probably some of JWH “Battlers” who somehow think they are better off with Abbott.
It is noteworthy that when Rudd was touted for a return, these souls jumped back on board with Labor, if just for a short time.
The conservative lead is soft.
Abbott and his cronies know this, hence the anguish from them. So near and yet so far.
You are welcome to say what you like here, but you stretch the point so often you have little or no credibility with anyone.
Many here claim you are a Liberal stooge but then most conservatives I know, while misguided, are usually able to see both sides of the picture but prefer to opt for one side rather than another.
All you do is bag.
by Tricot on May 22, 2012 at 8:35 am
TLM gets off on attention. Best to ignore
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:36 am
Mequire bob
Good question for mr albanese,
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 8:36 am
Morning all,
Should this bloke be presumed innocent?
http://www.arrestcentral.com/perry-evan-parsons/
by kezza2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:38 am
Without a trace of irony, The Australian, stable member of the master phone hacker itself, News Ltd, prints this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/only-top-spies-into-phone-cloning/story-fn59niix-1226362893537
Well, what about this?
One click on Google. One click.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:38 am
But they’re not just based on ‘allegations’ of an ‘accuser’, they’re based on documents and interviews with many people, including Mr Thomson.
No, they’re findings by the body that has been vested with power by the Parliament to conduct investigations and report findings. They carry the weight of such findings.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 8:38 am
Itep
You do realise that the AEC found that campaign funds allegedly misused according to the FWA is totally wrong!!!!! What weight does the FWA report have????
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:40 am
“Top spies” my foot.
http://www.vavolo.com/productdetails.asp,mode,1,productid,2400,,.htm
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:40 am
Most of the money alleged to have been wasted has been accounted for by the AEC report.
Some “weight”.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 8:42 am
Itep
Mr Nassios should come back from his leave asap and answer as to why he did not check with the AEC re campaign funds? It only took the AEC to confirm that the funds were not misused. The FWA reoort took years.
Take your blinkers off!!
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:42 am
Tricot
The problem with your analysis is Queensland. Here the voters converted their vague sentiment into action. The ALP disaffected stayed disaffected
Anna Bligh did not deserve the drubbing she got but it happened.
OK optional preferential changes the picture but still!!!!!!
by daretotread on May 22, 2012 at 8:43 am
Which begs the question…why give him and like his daily dose of pleasure by responding? Quite often, interesting posts worthy of discussion are drowned out by the noise.
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:44 am
Good Morning all.
Senator Xenophon is on 702 advocating for a Federal ICAC. Take the best from all of them.
Catmomma and BB After Abbott’s rantings AM had Albo on with his calm measured lets not judge that is for civil and criminal courts to decide.
On a silly note. The unions are missing an opportunity. They now have a great recruitment tool. Fantastic perks provided.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 8:44 am
Gillard actually set up FWA when she was minister for IR. it’s an independent statutory body like the RBA. You lot complain rightly when the Libs attack our institutions but seem more than happy to think FWA is rotten to the core.
And has a single Labor MP attacked FWA?
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 8:44 am
“a few weeks”
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:44 am
c@tmomma,
That thought also occurred to me when Craig Thomson said he often bulk-booked rooms. However, I dismissed it as being connected to the call-girl services because Craig did not seem to make the connection. Didn’t I read somewhere that Kathy Jackson admitted she was often asked to approve “adult services” for members?
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:45 am
Diogenes
Mr Lawler was an Abbott Appointee in 2002, when it was not called FWA. .
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 8:45 am
Bushfire Bill@1106,
I wonder what m’lud Peter Hartcher’s opinion of the stench of corruption, violence and intimidation emanating out of his cousin Chris Hartcher’s State Government offices is ?
by C@tmomma on May 22, 2012 at 8:47 am
Just a small correction to that quote you posted Bushfire
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 8:48 am
Morning bludgers
ruawake @573 yesterday to my 567 in relation to phone cloning
In today’s OO
And
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/only-top-spies-into-phone-cloning/story-fn59niix-1226362893537
by Gauss on May 22, 2012 at 8:49 am
guytaur@1136,
So that’s how we get Union membership numbers back up again, huh?
by C@tmomma on May 22, 2012 at 8:50 am
Why not “selected” documents and it appears the interviews were also “selected”. Again Thomson was interviewed once only (strange since he was the accused) and his explanation dismissed or not investigated to verify his side of the story. ?
by janice2 on May 22, 2012 at 8:50 am
The only time this year that Labor has made any ground in the polls was the week before the leadership vote, when people thought Rudd might return to the leadership.
Otherwise, Labor’s been stuck 10 or more points behind the Coalition.
It’s true that Gillard is toxic in QLD – the election can’t be won for Labor alone in Victoria & SA.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 22, 2012 at 8:52 am
Vic
One person who wasn’t involved in the investigation was appointed by Abbott.
That hardly taints the report.
I’m not even saying he report got it completely right, they never do, but to dismiss the whole report based on Lawlor is fanciful in the extreme.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 8:53 am
BB @ 1106
Himself. Always has been. Always will be.
by Darc on May 22, 2012 at 8:53 am
FFS stop tarring everyone with the same brush. That comment is the sort of thing that Evan Parsons would come up with. Name names if necessary but don’t use a shotgun approach.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 8:53 am