Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Whilst an outsider will never really know, my thinking with the Thomsom affair is that it doesn’t look he has done anything wrong or illegal money wise. Sure the HSU spent a truckload to get him elected. Unions can and do do that and the AEC has confirmed he has committed no offense.
The prostitution issue is the only dubious aspect to me. As he said himself, even he can’t really explain it. And so what if he did? He wasn’t married to his current wife at the time.
So the only thing he could be nailed for is misuse of union funds vis a vis the hookers.
Is that a criminal offense?
Not saying he is guilty though. That is up to a court to decide.
by Henry on May 22, 2012 at 10:56 am
Tony Abbott; The Australian thinking mans Joe McCarthy
http://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/mccarthyism.htm
by Gaffhook on May 22, 2012 at 10:56 am
I will put the argument another way.
Imagine the AWB Royal Commission. Instead of John Howard setting the terms of reference they are set by an Independent Judge.
That is what an Independent Corruption Watchdog does.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 10:56 am
Guytaur,
Scratch a Green and all you get is a stream of conciousness based on bullshit.
You are Exhibit A today.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 10:57 am
Tony Abbott; The Australian thinking mans Joe McCarthy
http://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/mccarthyism.htm
by Gaffhook on May 22, 2012 at 10:57 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/palmer-erects-billboard-in-swans-seat/story-fn3dxity-1226362674006
Given Palmer’s physique it’s probably the only thing he CAN erect!
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
Finns:
I hope Labor can reclaim Dennison. Wilkie reminds me of SenX.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
it is actually quite despicable really
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
confessions
Think of Wilkie as Tasmania’s new Senator Harradine.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
Tony Abbott; The Australian thinking mans Joe McCarthy
[Television, the medium that makes or breaks so many, was ultimately McCarthy's downfall. McCarthy had been viciously interrogating suspects in public and private hearings for some time, but the American people witnessed his brutal methods firsthand when theArmy-McCarthy hearings were broadcast on live TV in 1954 (the doing of President Eisenhower, who wanted the public to see McCarthy's misdeeds). The hearings began generically enough, with McCarthy making accusations against Army officers for not answering questions about their political beliefs. Lt. Col. Chester T. Brown, for one, outright refused to answer McCarthy's questions. In response, McCarthy said, "Any man in the uniform of his country who refused to give information to a committee of the Senate which represents the American people, that man is not fit to wear the uniform of his country" [source: CNN]. McCarthy then went one step further when he interviewed Brigadier General Ralph Zwicker, a decorated veteran and hero in Normandy, calling him “a disgrace to the uniform he wore” [source: Kiehr].
McCarthy had finally gone too far. Joseph Welsh, the attorney for the U.S. Army, responded famously by saying, “I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?” [source: Kiehr] The public quickly shifted its opinion of the man who had insulted members of the Armed Forces. President Eisenhower and the rest of the Senate agreed with Welsh. In 1954, the Senate censured McCarthy on 46 charges for abuse of legislative powers. He was eventually censured on only two of the charges because the Senate didn’t want to project the image of being “soft” on communism. Instead, the censure resolution stated that he had abused his power as a senator. He remained in office but was left with virtually no power or clout.]
http://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/mccarthyism.htm
by Gaffhook on May 22, 2012 at 10:59 am
Wilkie has obviously realised that if he maintained his silly stance he would have left parliament in 2013 having achieved nothing.
Realism reigns.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 11:01 am
So Sen. Heffernan has been cleared:
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/heffernan-whitewash-to-be-challenged-20120522-1z25t.html
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 11:01 am
Tony Abbott; The Australian thinking mans Joe McCarthy
http://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/mccarthyism.htm
by Gaffhook on May 22, 2012 at 11:01 am
Henry
It looks that way to me as well so I am wondering why the PM is still refusing to accept him in Caucus.
by MTBW on May 22, 2012 at 11:02 am
GG, i miss Horsey’s beautiful cut & paste
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 11:02 am
Mtbw
The govt probably had to distance themselves from Thomson because of the shit fight he is the middle of the HSU and FWA
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:03 am
John Bowler, a CCC botchment:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bowler_%28politician%29
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/bowlers-fate-in-colleagues-hands-20091125-jr4y.html#ixzz1vYX8RI5O
Bowler was dumped from Cabinet and from the ALP, suffered untold stress, and all for something which would’ve been thrown out of a criminal court had it gone there instead of to the CCC.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 11:03 am
With
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:03 am
Finns,
Sinodinis was there and could have been a witness. Very strange he was given the task to investigate unless the outcome was preordained. I’d hate to think there was a political fix in at the Liberal Party.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 11:05 am
confessions
For every example like that there are many more where corruption charges have not even started because people know it needs to stand up to court evidence.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:07 am
Not sure about that Vic if he is presumed innocent until proven guilty why has she taken the action against him?
by MTBW on May 22, 2012 at 11:08 am
GG, both Sinodinis and Heffernan were there as “Abbott Emissaries”. To do what?
Oh i know, Heffo to do the assaulting and Dino to do the whitewashing. You know that makes sense.
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 11:08 am
GG
You have descended to abuse. Not argument. Thanks for confirming state governments have not disbanded Independent Corruption Watchdogs.
Your abuse does not change that central fact.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:08 am
guytaur,
You write that as if it is a bad thing.
Or, would you prefer trial by media or allegation?
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 11:10 am
Mtbw
The govt is asking the Federal Court to liquidate branch of the HSU. Meanwhile, Thomson is alleging that the main players of the HSU set him up. Ie Kathy Jackson, Wiliamson and Bolano. There is a conflict. Best he cannot participate in caucus at present
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:10 am
GG
I also should tell you that I think Newman is likely to disband the Qld one. You cannot have a police state with an Independent watchdog in place.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:10 am
Guytaur, the Amigos dont abuse, we amuse
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 11:10 am
gg
Your post at 1373 if in response to my post to fess @1369 is exactly the point I am making it is a good thing. Less complaints due to Independent Corruption Watchdog.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:12 am
Jackson Williamson and Bolano come across as very suss to me and yet they still hold their positions in the Party. Why not Thomson?
by MTBW on May 22, 2012 at 11:13 am
Finns
If you this that is amuse and not abuse you need to rethink. It is certainly not addressing substance.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:13 am
guytaur,
z answered very eloquently. Read and learn.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 11:13 am
Mtbw
Both Jackson and Bolano are not MPS.
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:14 am
Let’s say Thomson has not broken any laws what so ever. His conduct of spending in such quantities of union members money stinks.
by rummel on May 22, 2012 at 11:15 am
by Leroy on May 22, 2012 at 11:15 am
gg
I replied to z and asked why the opposition. Same question i put to you. Prove your assertion that an Independent Commission is a waste of time as we have state examples.
Show where State Governments have disbanded theirs.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:15 am
What parts of the Presumption of Innocence and Due Process do you not understand, David?
Or does party loyalty – and that’s all it is – to a foreign ideology – and that’s what GOP-Tea Party and their tactics are; those of a foreign power – give you and your federal LOTO the right to trash one of Democracy’s true pillars; to attain which (as we know from nightly TV reports) people in the Middle East and Africa are dying in the streets by governments who fear such principles?
You ought to be ashamed of yourself. And of your LOTO.
by OzPol Tragic on May 22, 2012 at 11:15 am
Happens both sides, so why demand an innocent man be suspended/kicked out ?
by Mick Collins on May 22, 2012 at 11:17 am
Vic
I am of course well aware of that – the question is why prejudice Thomson’s position?
Remember she has also said that Thomson will not be endorsed by the ALP at the next election.
by MTBW on May 22, 2012 at 11:17 am
Paul Howes at National Press Club Today
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:17 am
Abbott was part of the Govt via AWB used the low paying voters money of $290M to bribe Saddam & was used to buy weapons to kill our troops
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 11:17 am
guytaur
Thanks for confirming. I had read it somewhere on twitter. Was not sure if accurate. I will be watching
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:18 am
We should have a debate on this, as Oakey wants.
Where we can force the Noalition to justify their conduct in brinning the standards of parliament down
by Mick Collins on May 22, 2012 at 11:19 am
Re: ICAC inquiry into Wollongong City Council bribery
Four years on, only some of ICAC’s “persons of interest” have been charged, most for giving false information to ICAC. One person was acquitted. The person of greatest media interest by a long chalk, Beth Morgan, has yet to face a court. She will not be prosecuted on at least 24 of the 27 charges recommended by ICAC because
The Daily Telegraph’s dedication to the highest standards of journalism was again manifested in April 2008 when they somehow got a photo of Morgan in a bathing suit at her parents’ hometown of Port Macquarie where she’d moved shortly after ICAC’s hearings.
Morgan’s inamorato, developer Frank Vellar, served a 10 month community service order, for presenting to the ICAC a false statutory declaration.
WCC Councillor Gigliotti served 4 months of a 9 month sentence for twice lying to ICAC.
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/news/local/news/general/beth-morgan-could-yet-face-prosecution/2244781.aspx?storypage=1
by Atticus on May 22, 2012 at 11:19 am
With an Independent Commission having powers to investigate not set by JWH the guilty parties would have been brought to account.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 11:19 am
How long before we hear the Coalition have always supported the NBN?
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/05/22/nbn-here-to-stay-under-coalition-says-analyst/
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 11:20 am
mtbw
Unless the allegations against Thomson are cleared, how in dog’s name is he going to be able to contest his seat. Have you seen today’s papers. Lynchmob is understating it. They are pushing this man to the edge
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:20 am
Rummel’s Big Retreat: now it doesn’t matter whether Thomson has committed a crime. He still “stinks”.
Righto, let’s throw over the constitution because someone “stinks”. I could think of a few candidates on the Coalition side for that honour.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 11:21 am
K. X. Trawler @KXTrawler
In the nineteenth century, NSW had a Minister for Rabbits.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 11:22 am
That isn’t true. She said the member fighting for that seat will be an ALP member. Thomson could be back in the fold by then. That doesn’t cut him out of the loop. In reality of course it would be very difficult for Thomson to be preselected again one would have thought given the circumstances whether innocent or not.
by Gary on May 22, 2012 at 11:22 am
Gary
You make a good point. JG did not say he would not be re contesting, just that it would be an ALP member.
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 11:24 am