Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Has Hartcher ever put this question to Abbott in relation to the coalition’s socialist carbon abatement policy?
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 1:15 pm
RNM1953 & Lynchpin,
Peter and Chris Hartcher are cousins.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Lynchpin – sometime back
With a new LOTO here in WA, the Liberals don’t look all that flash. Barnett is pinning his hopes on the big ticket items looking good for him at the next election.
Utilities pricing is really biting in the West and hence the conservatives trying like crazy to pin it on CT.
My gut reaction is that – as things stand – Barnett, still with the help of Gryll’s country socialists, will just about get up.
The country loves the “Royalties for Regions” money and around Margaret River, say, they have been longing for a ring road which might just come good with above funds.
No votes for Labor down there.
Federally,only two seats in play for Labor – that is to win – the same two as last time.
On a good day, Labor should win, but who knows in the West?
This is Red Neck territory here and anything said to upset the miners is heresy.
by Tricot on May 22, 2012 at 1:16 pm
BK
Been out for a while and just read your posts. Thanks for the info.
by Darn on May 22, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Paul Keating would eat Paul Howes economic commentary for breakfast. What the frig does he want? Devalued dollar? Industry nationalisation? Re-established tarrifs?
Perhaps he should reinvent himself as Alfred Deakin and bring back the Australian Protectionist Party (but these days even Deakin wouldn’t be protectionist).
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:17 pm
I suspect you mean “To paraphrase Mr. McLuhan”
by bakunin on May 22, 2012 at 1:17 pm
You’d support anyone with got a ‘roo loose in the top paddock. Says it all really.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Yep
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:19 pm
I have never seen a roo confined to a top paddock or a bottom one come to think of it.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Today’s MPI:
“The importance of public confidence and public trust in the Australian Parliament, and how the Parliament should respond to matters related to the Member for Dobell” proposed by Mr Oakeshott (Lyne)
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Paul Howes makes a lot of noise but rarely says much of note.
Always sounds like he is auditioning for higher honours.
Jessica Wright sounds like a bogan, she just called him mate!!
by Henry on May 22, 2012 at 1:25 pm
So no noalition MPI today Triton? that’s a relief.
Although they can still propose an SSO right?
by Henry on May 22, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Henry
I had never heard Jessica Wright speak before – and I don’t want to hear her again!
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Howes showing he is an idiot on Greens.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:28 pm
ALP governments tend to succeed electorally when they aren’t seen as ALP governments.
People like Howes (who repeatedly appear in the media more than they should) are part of the problem, not the solution
by spur212 on May 22, 2012 at 1:28 pm
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2011-2012/ChronFWAct
Suggestion go overto’hoopla and let them know what you think
Who is tracy spicer,,, never heard of her
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 1:29 pm
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Pyne has already said he will.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 1:29 pm
He’s a populist.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Wrong link willl fix
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 1:31 pm
I’m reminded of Latham’s description of Janet Albrechtsen BK…
by Henry on May 22, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Indeed. Howes should spend more time tending to his members and less time pontificating on issues he clearly has no idea about.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 1:31 pm
http://thehoopla.com.au/put-shut/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=May+22+The+Hoopla&utm_content=May+22+The+Hoopla+CID_d7c66cd0e4e48f6e6fedc4da01c636a9&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Read+Now
Hoopla, notice the photo.’
Why is the world so cruel
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Henry
Oh, there can’t be the slightest doubt that they will do that today.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Abbott
http://www.liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2012/05/22/Tony-Abbott-Doorstop.aspx
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:32 pm
An unpopular populist- the best kind of populist.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:33 pm
BK:
I so wish that the ATO would conduct a thorough – indeed, a forensic – examination of the IPA to make sure that it truly rooly “deserves” its charitable status.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 1:33 pm
I have heard Jessica Wright before. She sounds okay to me. A bit of a raspy voice, but that’s not a bad thing at all. Way more preferable to Pyne’s squealy voice
Whenever people see Howes, all they think of is the guy who rolled Rudd and is controlling Gillard all because he went on Lateline the night of the spill.
For Gillard’s sake he should be more self aware and limit himself to appearing in the media.
by spur212 on May 22, 2012 at 1:35 pm
FYI
I got an SMS from government agency saying that my household assistance of $x will be deposited in my account today.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Evidently Thomsons claim that brothels must keep CCTV footage for six months is not true. You’d think he would have checked that before saying it.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Sorry should be years not months.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Wow only one Thomson question for Macklin.
Mostly real policy questions. Those journalists did well.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Yeah don’t know where he got that idea from Diogenes, and it certainly doesn’t help his credibility. It doesn’t even sound as if it might be true.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 1:38 pm
A foolish fool is he.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Thomson’s line about the CCTV data may be a red herring anyway as from my understanding the visits were outcalls, ie the hookers went to the hotels where he was staying. Allegedly.
Regarding the SSO, can Albo do another “I move the member be no longer heard” and gag them?
by Henry on May 22, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Ltep
Assuming his lawyers went over the speech, it’s very hard to understand making an error like that.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Poor Possum. To him Howes is just as much of a embarrassment as a Bernardi is to a Turnbull.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:41 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@latikambourke Isnt that a bit like Dracula complains about how the blood is being extracted
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 1:42 pm
r
Mr Latham is like one of those scrub bulls kicked out of the herd because they are past it.
They have no herd instinct left. They are grumpy and dangerous when disturbed, which is most of the time.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 1:42 pm
In the US, how money which should go to needy public schools is being channelled to private schools:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/education/scholarship-funds-meant-for-needy-benefit-private-schools.html
by citizen on May 22, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Henry
He can, but he doesn’t need to and they would probably not pass anyway. An SSSO needs 76 votes to get up and the opposition has never got them a single time since the election. All it does is give them a soapbox for a few minutes.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 1:44 pm
On Jessica – she seems to have become a favorite because someone slipped her some ‘Got Ya’ copies of a very small number of e-mails.
I wouldn’t expect any serious follows ups unless she’s owed big time – not likely.
by CTar1 on May 22, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Oops: “they” = a gag
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Henry, the gag can be moved whenever. Whether it should be allowed is another matter.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 1:45 pm
My say Tracy Spicer is a newsreader for one of the commerci TV channels.
by davidwh on May 22, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Senator Press conference on pokies reform due to commence shortly News24
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:46 pm
OMG Another media tart is having a presser, Sen X
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 1:47 pm
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Haven’t heard from this facebook group for a while, today this post popped up on my home page.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Keeping-the-Australian-Media-honest/157804167565506
by MsAdventure on May 22, 2012 at 1:48 pm
the whole lot is a big fat herring designed to muddy the waters to keep him in office for just that little bit longer.
There is a substantial body of evidence pointing towards criminal activity yet he chose not to talk to Police (fair enough ) but then to toss a union member under the bus with allegations of setting him up with no evidence what so ever using parliamentary privilege is a joke.
He may be clean criminally, but his actions stink to high heven.
by rummel on May 22, 2012 at 1:50 pm