Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BK
Mr Pyne is essentially repeating the FWA report contents along with some arguments.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Pruneface looking very studious.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:09 pm
It’s time this Speaker STFU Prissie. This Speaker is TOO weak
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 2:09 pm
What is required to refer it to Privileges? Is it Slipper’s discretion? Or is it voted on?
by Lynchpin on May 22, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap
by Mick Collins on May 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm
ruwake
It seems that Slipper is a sort of semi-Speaker. He’s not alllowed to be Speaker in the chamber but he’s Speaker outside the chamber. The reasoning escapes me.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Burke is no Slipper.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Pyne – the FWA report is NOT evidence. You have just made it impossible for Thomson to acted against by any court in the land.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Ms Burke does not know where to draw the line. Either it is everything that Mr Pyne has or very little of it.
Her repeated warnings are having no effect and will have no effect.
This is 10/10 for Mr Pyne.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap Yap
by Mick Collins on May 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm
guytaur,
The Greens and X may have just killed off any action on Pokies.
The Government managed to do a deal which they reckon will get through HOR and now these self aggrandisers want to play populist.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Boerwar:
I agree. Burke doesn’t seem to know whether Pyne is Arthur or Martha.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Kim Hollingsworth? Was she one of the prostitutes he employed? I thought she gave the game away in the 1990s when she wanted to become a rozzer.
by Oakeshott Country on May 22, 2012 at 2:13 pm
GG
Yes that is the government line. However all the cross benchers have not ruled out $1 bets or a starting date. This goes down it will be Labor seen as politically responsible. All due to Wilkie having agreement before Slipper became Speaker and not after.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:14 pm
We need P Slipper and the PM back. Very quickly.
by gigi on May 22, 2012 at 2:14 pm
gigi
Agreed
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Abbott does look bad. Not even speaking well. Maybe he has had the flu.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
What a pathetic question from Abbott!
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Schnappi@Schnappi5
Was thompson supposed to cover the whole 4 year report in 1 hour,pyne is sick.
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
The worst thing about Gillard’s absence is that I have to listen to Swan answer nearly every question.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 2:17 pm
guytaur
Wilkie is supporting the legislation, it is the Greens, X and the DLP who oppose it.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 2:17 pm
BK
Slightly rephrased it would have been a great dorothy dixer from Labor.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:18 pm
What a weak, weak, speaker?. Pyne ran rings around her.
by adam abdool on May 22, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Yes thank God for the Greens. Now we are sure not to have any stupid Pokie legislation
by Oakeshott Country on May 22, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Mr Pyne has annexed several reports including the FWA report to the reference to the privilege committee. I believe this includes the editorial from a newspaper, which I suppose would be that of ‘The Australian’.
This opens Mr Thomson to anything and everything that Mr Nassios and everyone else has opined about him.
The kangaroo court has been created by the Opposition and it is the Privileges Committee.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 2:18 pm
triton:
It could be worse. MAcklin for eg.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:18 pm
ru
The public sees Labor killing it. For reason as I stated above. The Noalition will make sure that is the way it is seen.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:19 pm
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Good response by Swan to the first question there.
by Burgey on May 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm
So now op-eds from the Australian decide the fate of MPs.
Jesus H. Christ… what have we come to?
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm
You Labor people on pokies are in the same place as you were with ETS.
If you make a change do it properly or not at all.
That is the point. All Labor has to do is agree to a start date and maybe $1 bets.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Guytaur -that is a good thing -Pokie legislation is poison for Labor
by Oakeshott Country on May 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm
http://www.cyenne.com/discussion/wilkie-backs-the-governments-pokies-reform-bill/
by Leroy on May 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm
This is a bad thing for Labor?
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Rumel, is it necassary to use words like that.
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 2:21 pm
It is a very dangerous precedent.
Just think, all those op-ed pieces about Sophie and her Willing ways…….
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Not at all is the correct answer
by Oakeshott Country on May 22, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Griggs was prepped by Hunt while Pyne was yapping.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Member for Solomon is a rabbit.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Bernard Keane retweeted my reply to 14495 tweeters,I am amazed.
Schnappi@Schnappi5
@crikey_news @BernardKeane Thompson has done nothing,the dumb arse media has and still trying to transform politics into prime time drama
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 2:22 pm
It will fail in the House.
In the end the govt can only work with the numbers in the chamber. It is better to have something than nothing at all.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Albo: “Another Riley moment!”
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Actually I think a lot of people have been fooled. Pokie legislation is not poison for Labor.
Just lots of heat and noise saying it is. Just like a carbon price the reality would destroy any fear campaign. Most people would not be affected. Just the profits of those that profit from the problem gambler. That is the test how does this affect the problem gambler. Do not say you are in favour of poke reform as Labor has and then not implement it.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
And Oakshot later will naively use an MPI to lift the decorum of parliament about Thomson. Like he thinks there is some innate parliamentary majesty that can lift us from the mire.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
I am waiting for the day when he thrown out of qt
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
It is controlled by the ALP I believe.
by Lynchpin on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
about what?
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@DobellThommo It’s a bit like Dracula citing Vampire as his referee
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Raising a matter of privilege is a very rare event. Unless others here know how much latitude a member raising is normally permitted it’s hard to tell whether Burke should have reined him in. He was reading a letter. Maybe he is allowed to do that.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 2:25 pm