Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
ShowsOn
But that wouldn’t have changed the real situation.
FWA would still have been slow. Nothing would have been resolved any earlier. Thomson wouldn’t have been believed (as now).
by lizzie on May 22, 2012 at 5:57 pm
bluegren
Pyne thinks the Oz and DT articles are evidence,so your post is also evidence for someone to charge who you exposed as guilty.
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Victoria, Abbott looked down in the dumps?
Wow, even in that prehistoric brain of his he might think that Jesus according to his teachings may not be happy with him…… Naahh
by Centre on May 22, 2012 at 5:57 pm
The ubiquity of the odious Peter Reith is concerning indeed.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 5:58 pm
lizzie
The truth comes out. The media may not be directly reporting all the facts in the hopes that by overlooking some stuff they can pain things more badly than they actually are.
However it comes down to brass tacks eventually.
So already the media has backed off of cross bench votes because they can see that Thomson is not going to be forced out of Parliament before the Government has run a full term.
So can Abbott.
Now the media has regrouped to do Schappelle Corby and like stories.
They will be back on the next scandal. Meanwhile the whole Ruddstoration gang will be back to try and sap the confidence of those supporting a good government doing good things.
Failing of course. Abbott will go on about Carbon Tax ad nauseum. He has nailed his colours to the mast. That is where things will stay until the next big bit of news. IMO that will be the latest Liberal Leadership story.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 5:58 pm
I think that when Toxic Tony smells blood and there is a victim in his sights, the victim is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.
Thomson was right when he said LOTO has trashed Parliamentary democracy and civil society in his bid to get the top job
by billie on May 22, 2012 at 5:59 pm
2096
If you read 2033 then you will see that it is clemency being talked about as it is directly mentioned as well as saying “freed by August” thus ruling out it being about a prisoner swap/transfer agreement issue. I also remember previous talk of clemency being in consideration.
by Tom the first and best on May 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm
BK
Yeah I am sure he has a bedroom just off camera.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:01 pm
I assume with Nassios on long service leave that the Govt Solicitor will be unable to form any opinion as to the success of any action against Thomson.
So I reckon Brandis was correct for once – Thomson will never be charged with anything.
When the Newspaper scream Thomson Cleared – No Charges to answer, who does the mud stick to?
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:01 pm
People need to continue in baying for abbott to stand down
by Meguire Bob on May 22, 2012 at 6:02 pm
ru
Pyne, Brandis and of course the man directly pointed to by Mr Thomson, Mr Abbott.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:02 pm
confessions,
That is beautiful news.
by Scringler on May 22, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Five years cut from Corbys sentence. Bob Carr to make a statement.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Yep, So what?
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:03 pm
I think PoK at 2066 sums up the rational of PB perfectly.
by davidwh on May 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Corby…
today – some connection – another failure by dysfunctional govt?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/free-trade-agreement-with-malaysia-opens-up-education-telco-sectors/story-e6frg8zx-1226363751126
by Lyne Lady on May 22, 2012 at 6:05 pm
ru
I bet Thomson faces civil charges from FWA.
Criminal charges are much less likely.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Does it seriously come down to one person? Is FWA increadibly under resourced?
by blackburnpseph on May 22, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Banner on Sky News:
I guess Abbott would know about implausible statements. He’s made enough in his tenure in Parliament.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 6:07 pm
All tweets so far on Drum positive. I like the one What has Pyne done for his Electorate lately. His attention is all on Thomson.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Scringler:
The link:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-22/native-title-arbana-hearing/4025738
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 6:08 pm
It sounds like Corbys mental health problems were the reason for the reduction in sentence.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 6:09 pm
In this case it does, many of the “findings’ are opinions. If you cannot ask how the opinion was formed how can you mount a case. Remember the FWA report contains zero admissible evidence.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:10 pm
David Donovan@davrosz
@Thefinnigans Tonight’s story looks at the apparent discrepancies in the allegations made against Thomson. Quite a long piece
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Compact Crank
DOH! Where have you been during the Murdoch-NewsIntel phone-hacking scandal? The method has, in fact, been described in newspapers, in Westminster’s Parliament, in inquiry hearings, in TV & Radio broadcasts of the aforementioned – over & over & over. And, for that matter, the how to do it URLs been posted n-ty times by more intelligent PBers who do know how to do it.
No need for spooks! Any high school teen of average IQ, basic IT skills & the inclination to do it, can. Even an OAP like me can do it, so basic are the instructions & skills needed.
Talk about rightards’ Not living in C21′s ‘real’ world!
OTOH, maybe it explains why Liberals & fellow travellers like Turnbull, Grech and Steve Lewis were sucked in by IT in 2009; why Brough, Pyne, J Bishop and – guess who; ah yes! Steve Lewis – again were sucked in, in 2012. They’re IT dummies!
by OzPol Tragic on May 22, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Has Pyne asked any questions at all about education in the House?
by Son of foro on May 22, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Reith is expert in Kangaroo Court.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:13 pm
ru
The DPP has asked the police to investigate. They don’t need the investigator to do that.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 6:14 pm
He is waiting for a fire in pink batts installed in a BER school in Dobell, to ask one.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Reith is expert in Alsatian Court.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Rubbish. Investigate what?
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Great news! Ta Fess & Scringler. Now for World Heritage Listing for Lake Eyre, its Basin and the whole “Channel Country”.
by OzPol Tragic on May 22, 2012 at 6:16 pm
AGS will reach its own conclusions independently of Nassios. The idea that the charges will rise and fall with Nassios is misguided.
The report is inadmissible. The source documents are not. Documents have a habit of speaking for themselves.
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Sue Cato slamming Labor for listening to their Pokie Masters.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Since drawing her line a few weeks back, The PM seems to be doing a pretty good job of rising above the Thomson Affair leaving the streetfighting to Albo. The inner pugilist in Tony Abbott is not letting himself step back, if anything he and Albo are going to get down even further in the mud. It could be quite good tactics on the part of the ALP to draw Tony Abbott out on the issue – even though enough mud has probably stuck to the government – the current situation is about a year too late – after all they were never going to lose Thomsons vote and he was never going to walk away – so they could have cut their losses a long time ago.
by blackburnpseph on May 22, 2012 at 6:18 pm
If it Wicks again and DD is right about the subject matter, it will be the first time that Wicks has addressed the allegations.
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 6:19 pm
I give Gillard one thing. She has more credibility then Wilkie…. Just.
by rummel on May 22, 2012 at 6:21 pm
ru
You must have missed this.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/police-given-report-on-mp-20120503-1y1t0.html#ixzz1vaJbH3po
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Except many are no longer available as they went missing after Thomson left the Union. So no documents either. I mean real ones not fake ones published by Fairfax.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:21 pm
The IPA has a whole floor in the ABC building, that’s where he has digs. Near the Sloan Room.
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Education is a Liberal policy free zone – has been since 1996.
by blackburnpseph on May 22, 2012 at 6:22 pm
I got the impression from FWA there were a shitload of documents. Maybe they made that up like Wicks alleges the coppers carried around empty boxes after the HSU East raid
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 6:23 pm
No the CDPP gave a copy of the report to the Plods, so what I have a copy of it now.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Abbott is so stupid politically. All he had to do is come up with a policy that would get Bob Katter and/or Windsor and Oakshott to vote with him.
That would do more damage to the government stability than any of this mud slinging.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Google search turns up the following in numerous versions: DPP says it can’t investigate HSU
In the first 2 Google pages, the only reference later than early April – Police raid HSU branch in Sydney | Police Association of NSW – leads to
by OzPol Tragic on May 22, 2012 at 6:27 pm
I have now picked myself up off the floor after receiving our latest AGL Electricity bill.
Of course it’s more than last year.
The tariffs per kWh are the same, but the cutoff is smaller. The 29c per kWh tariff kicks in at 1745 kWh instead of (in the last bill) at 1850 kWh…. so that’s where they get their price increase. Charging you more, earlier.
However the good news is that our tonnage consumption has gone from an average 3.4 tonnes per quarter same time last year, to 2.55 tonnes this year. That’s a whooping 33% reduction.
(Self) Congratulations to the Bushfire household for reducing its Carbon Footprint by 33%, 6.6 times the targeted national reduction (of 5%) over 8 years, in just 12 months.
That works out to a saving of about $190 per quarter.
Carbon Tax flow on PAID in one-and-a-half quarters (and that’s not taking discounts and washing my car instead of having it washed into account)!
Now, if only millions more like our little household got the picture and realised that carbon consumption CAN be accomplished without too much angst, instead of just resorting to whingeing about broken promises.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Dustbin, Dio.
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 6:28 pm
victoria,
I noticed that during QT today. He really did look dreadful. Strange skin. If anything, he looked more reptilian than usual. And, strangely, with a yellow tinge. Maybe he’s about to shed.
+++
Thanks confessions for that link.
by Scringler on May 22, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Well i am glad some one posted the rest of the story
Thanks joe2
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 6:31 pm