Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
vic,
I meant it’s a photocopy of the original.
Sorry!
Womble’s post at 2671 is further evidence that the card used for that transaction was a dud/forgery.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:10 am
guytaur
It is up to the Greens to show that the higher fixed price was worth the two year wait (and – at the time – it looked like a three year wait).
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 9:11 am
Yer, his tedious mentor, Nick Xenophon has a lot to answer for.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:11 am
Can anyone provide a link to the photos of the Thomson credit card docket?
(Sorry, I did see it, but forgot where).
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 9:12 am
GG
Thanks. That makes more sense. If it is a photocopy of the actual voucher, then I would say there is something very fishy going on.
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:12 am
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/the-fair-go-has-fairly-gone-20120522-1z2zz.html
by Leroy on May 23, 2012 at 9:13 am
BB
It is here
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/craig-thomson-under-the-rain/
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:13 am
zoomster
Rudd failed. He refused to negotiate with the Greens and the Senate. This meant pressure was not there for his negotiations with the Coalition and we do not know what would have happened with Fielding the erratic and Xenophon.
What we do know is failing to negotiate with the Greens led to the outcome we saw.
Gillard had no guarantee of getting the Carbon Price through by getting the Greens on board. She got it through by negotiating with the Greens, Oakshott, Wilkie, and Windsor. Two of those people being conservative independents. Just as Fielding was a conservative independent.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:14 am
zoomster
It is up to you to prove the scientists wrong. That has always been the position of the Greens and they have clearly on the record stated they would not agree to locking in a price too low to be effective.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:15 am
btw I followed tweets last night between the author of this article, Peter Wicks and others. Very intriguing discussion.
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:16 am
Frankly, I think it would be in ever bodies interest if a truce were called and both parties get on with the selling of what has been a difficult but mighty reform.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:16 am
joe2
There is a big corporation section of the ALP that hates the Greens with a passion.
Just look at Howes misleading comments about the Greens on the pulp mill.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:17 am
womble – The MIT instructions say:
I think this means you can try the card directly electronically and get a ‘decline’ that gives you a reason code and an ID number for the specific transaction.
You can then on-line indicate you are going to accept it anyway OR you write down the ‘Decline’ message numbers and then complete a manual voucher with the message in the ‘Authorisation’ area of the voucher ie you’re satisified you know who to collect the money from. So you present the manual voucher to your bank believing it will be honoured …
Maybe ???
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 9:18 am
A reader’s comment in today’s Age:
by triton on May 23, 2012 at 9:18 am
On the class warfare thing, how come it always attributed to Labor when clearly it was the invention of Murdoch wankers?
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
OPT
Thanks for the explanation about what happens in the PC.
I had no idea of its powers.
Should keep them occupied for about 4 years
C@tmomma
Doesn’t look like Maley was even in Chicago reporting on the PM.
She’s just going off the same video views the general public were allowed to see.
Re JG and Karzai – they seemed pretty relaxed and comfortable to me. Didn’t see the Angela Merkel one. Maybe Maley fancies herself as the resident body language expert at the SMH.
Although I liked her billowing skirts/underpants metaphor, the article was really an attempt to resurrect leadershit speculation, imo.
by kezza2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
triton
Ballieu is a dud of the first order
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
gg,
In that montage, are you saying they used a a colour photocopy of the original cc slip.
Or did they have the original?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 9:21 am
Found the photo.
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 9:22 am
Big deal, guytaur. Many in labor think the bloke is a drip. The issue is promoting the climate change program and if people are still bloody squabbling of the past the big picture will be missed and the message mangled.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:22 am
Joe2
I agree. It is shades of Ruddstoration.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:23 am
Ctar1 – it looks like it was manual swipe (like the hire car drivers use!!!) so they would’ve had to call to get an authorisation number for a transaction of that size. It was back in 2005 when manual transactions would’ve been more common then they are now – so no on-line transaction
I think i stuffed up a little in my original post – i think the voucher would probably still need to be submitted to the bank so that they can file it in their declined file
A decent investigative journalist would have a field day with this
by womble on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 am
womble
I sense you may just think there is something fishy about the Thomson case?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:27 am
joe2
Frankly, I agree.
Been done to death.
by kezza2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:28 am
The ETS legislation was defeated because the Greens did not vote with Labor. That is fact.
This has cost in terms of extra emissions over the period and extra dollars. That is fact.
The Greens claim this is justified because Rudd would not negotiate with them. That is debatable.
We have increased emissions and costs because of how the Greens’ Senators voted. Whether this was justified because of the circumstances of their vote is a matter for their consciences.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 9:29 am
ctar1,
If the intention was to organise a fraudulent transaction then the perp would probably demagnetise the card so it can’t operate through the terminal. The whole reason is to force a manual transaction.
The 211 code was put on the docket by the Credit card processing agency. That would imply the docket had been rejected.
It would be intersting to know whether the amount was ever debited against the HSU.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:29 am
Greensborough Growler@2673,
Plus the Expiry Date, 2014, on the NSW Licence as shown for Craig Thomson doesn’t make sense as it does not conform with terms for which a NSW Licence can be held.
I am also pleased to see that I am not the only one who thinks that the photo on the Licence doesn’t seem to resemble Craig Thomson.
There are some useful comments about Sim Card copying on Peter Wick’s IA article too:
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/craig-thomson-under-the-rain/
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 9:30 am
guytaur
1. The present package will achieve exactly the same outcomes as the previous package – that is, a 5% cut in emissions.
2. The only ‘real’ difference – as far as mitigating emissions is concerned, which is the real ballgame – is that this will cost more than it would have had the package been passed in 2009.
3. You banging on about the lack of negotiation with the Greens highlights why the Greens did not take the opportunity to have the package passed in 2009 – their noses were out of joint.
4. So, because the Greens were miffed, action on climate change has been delayed by two years. This has made no difference to the timing or the cut in emissions, but has added $2 billion to the cost of meeting the targets.
5. So – the really simple, crucial question – in what way is the present package, supported by the Greens, better than the one in 2009?
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 9:30 am
puff
You are wrong. Gillard proved this. As Joe2 says stop trying to point blame for the past and just get on with the job of promoting the reform this excellent Coalition of Labor, Greens and Independents got through Parliament.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:31 am
zoomste
Gillard succeeded. Rudd failed. It is that simple.
Now promote the Gillard Labor success.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 am
Puffy,
I am not sure what 2UE used to produce the montage.
However, I believe Fairfax produced the voucher to rebut claims by Thomson that he’d never purchased prostitute services. It would be interesting to know where they obtained the voucher.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 am
GG
BTW I completely agree with you about a schools proximity being important. Lots of kids I know travel one hour to and fro from school. That’s ten hours ostensibly wasted a week. Imagine how much they could learn, play or do in that time.
by Diogenes on May 23, 2012 at 9:33 am
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:33 am
The conservatives on the Privileges Committee make an interesting bunch. Patrick Secker who has been rolled on his preselection. So he is on his way out and may act in a reasonably bi partisan manner, especially in his position of deputy chair. Don Randall – nasty POS and should parrot the LNP line. Alex ‘do nothing’ Somlyay – a failed minister in a failed government and notorious Peter Slipper hater. This one will be interesting should the Ashby affair ever be put before the PC. Finally John Alexander who other than being seen seated behind the Dispatch Box has appeared to have done very little since arriving in Canberra.
The likely outcome will be 2 reports from the committee with the 6 ALPers and Windsor with the majority opinion and the other submitting a minority opinion which is probably being typed up by Peta Credlin now.
by hugh moran on May 23, 2012 at 9:34 am
GG
Exactly. I would like to know who gave them the voucher.
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:34 am
Diogs,
Thanks Diogs. I’m whelmed.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:35 am
guytaur
Yes, Gillard succeeded.
Once again, you demanded answers, but gave none in return.
I’m not anti Green – I’m anti people who accuse others of ‘spin’ or blind partisanship and then display the same qualitites themselves.
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 9:35 am
Victoria – yes there is something fishy going on BUT in saying that, I still think Thomson was very loose in his handling of members money in his time with the HSU
If I had time I’d have a read of what the FWA report says about the $2475 transaction but I have to go to work
have a great day All
p.s. The Greens got a much better result by holding out imo
by womble on May 23, 2012 at 9:35 am
Womble
Have a good day
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:36 am
kezza2@2715,
I just think it is poor form all round from the media and the Opposition to be so nasty towards the PM and Craig Thomson when they could show a little humanity instead. Such bitchiness is not really necessary IMO.
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 9:37 am
GG, do you mean The credit card receipt is allegedly a genuine replica; or that the credit card is one of a number of cards issued to the same account holder?
Either way, the numerical reason for card refusal means that security numbers on the back of card of the person trying to make the transaction did not match those of any card issued to that account holder. IOW, that number did not tally with any card issued to Craig Thomson (note No “P”).
I’d have thought the appearance of reputedly dodgy Cabcharge receipts, purportedly signed by Slipper – and extensive discussion thereof – might have rung a few alarm bells, given similar accusations had surfaced re Thomson … and vice versa!
What I can’t fathom (short of conspiracy theories on a grand scale) is why Utegate, the HSU saga, and the Ashby affair exhibit a gobsmackingly woeful grasp of the ways manual-imprint credit/ Cabcharge cards are used, and checked; and the ways IT communication (inc mobile phone use) are transmitted, contact details of person sending & person receiving – and the communication’s content from both ends – are recorded and archived, so they can be subpoenaed during legitimate investigations, and used in evidence.
I’d have though, by this time, even dimwits would have learnt that IT communication (emails, phone & conversation records etc) is quite hackable (given that porno ring closed networks are hacked by police) and virtually indestructible (in Oz, that includes most – if not all – “burn phones”).
by OzPol Tragic on May 23, 2012 at 9:37 am
Briefly OT
Anyone notice the Google homepage today ?
A musical keyboard with various adjustment dials. You can play the keyboard, record your input then play it back.
A nice diversion in what is the circular nature of politics atm, ie just get crap on front pages/ TV news. Its long been have the desired effect and is continuing to do so, unfortunately.
by dave on May 23, 2012 at 9:38 am
Diog
yes, the distance is a compelling argument!
My son would love to move to a different school and has been putting a lot of pressure on me to let him do this.
However, moving schools means at least a two hour commute every day.
So he’s only allowed to move if he can (i) justify that and (ii) come up with a reason why another school would be different from his present one.
I can actually think of a couple for (ii) (I’d accept curriculum offerings and peers, for example) but he hasn’t so far! … and the extra two hours a day he could spend on schoolwork (and extra $3000 a year for the bus, if he went to a public school) he can’t come close to justifying.
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 9:39 am
OPT
The AFP have yet to report on Slipper and the cabcharges. I am hopeful their investigation is more wide ranging than just the cabcharges. Surely the cabcharges would not take very long?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:40 am
womble – They try it, either phone or electronically, and get a code (decline/accept whatever). If M/C decline it probably means that the payment to you will not happen until the other party pays up (the accept part I think means M/C accept the risk).
The message says a verification problem not an invalid account number (a different code – 231) so the presentation of the voucher could still be done.
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 9:40 am
zoomster
So why are you here blaming the Greens about something that happened two years ago. Blame that is not clear cut. Is it an article in the MSM discing the Greens because the MSM has just fired another shot in their declared war to destroy the Greens at the ballot box?
Disagree with the Greens position all you like but do not misrepresent that position.
They stated at the time why they blocked the legislation it is on the record.
Rudd failed to negotiate Gillard succeeded to negotiate. It is a simple stark difference.
Stop trying to place blame on the Greens for a past failure and embrace the Greens for being part of the party now.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:41 am
Ctar1 – I’ll be late LOL
The merchant cannot process the transaction as they haven’t got a valid authorisation code, the voucher has no financial value – they needed an alternate source of payment
really have to go now, bye all
by womble on May 23, 2012 at 9:44 am
2677 guytaur
Rudd did not make the Greens vote against the CPRS. That was all the Greens’ own work! Stop lying, all Greens, stop lying about Greens blocking the CPRS for party–political reasons!
I don’t understand people voting 1 Greens in the Senate. Only one progressive party is in Parliament and that is Labor. I put Greens very last on my Senate ballot papers.
by political animal on May 23, 2012 at 9:44 am
Senator Cormann in Senate Estimates has just seemingly made a ‘slip’ that the Coalition will not reveal how they plan to get the Budget to the supposed $15 billion until they’re in Government. Quite a good exchange between Senator Wong and Senator Cormann, which sort of showed Senator Wong’s value.
by ltep on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 am
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 39s
Foreign Minister Bob Carr says Australia would still be releasing detained Indonesian minors even if there were no Schapelle Corby in jail.
View details ]·
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:46 am