Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Last Newspoll anyone? There’s that theory blown away.
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 2:56 pm
BG #3291, I misread it for a moment as “if Abbott gets naked”. Errk.
by Marrickville Mauler on May 23, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Mr Pyne’s pink skin/ bulging vein index is pretty high at the moment.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Zoildloid
The media after their incessant witch hunt against Rudd & his family only, only gave Rudd support to punish Howard because he wouldn’t stand aside for their man Costello.
by Dee on May 23, 2012 at 2:57 pm
bluegreen @ 3291
Maybe Parliament could adopt Williams ‘anti-stupidity’ rule. If it applies to Truthy, it would certainly apply to Abbott.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Only really on IR with any firm nature.
Free trade – protectionism (both elements in both parties)
Environment (compare results of Sen Hill as enviro minister to rhetoric of Paul Howes “i’m a dig it up sort of guy’ to that of Abbott and Joyce)
On Immigration (white australia policy has been held strongly by all major parties at some point and Fraser as PM was to the Left by mile than Gillard as PM)
On taxation (both have been for and against gst)
On federalism (no comment needed)
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Gary: Funny how the Gillardites in here were trumpeting the last Newspoll as proof that your girl is on the way back………in reality, yet to be proven.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Interesting to see how the Cross Benches vote this time
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 2:58 pm
another person who believes that Due process is only to be applied selectively
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Pyne crying because he was told that referring the stuff to the committee would not stop it being debated.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Mr Albanese is using every trick in the Standing Orders book at the moment. Has completely disrupted the LOTO’s rave.
Ms Burke doing a pretty good job in excessively difficult circumstances, IMHO.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Anna is not being firm enough. She’s trying to be tooooo fair to Abbott.
Abbott’s cock just crowed three times.
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 2:59 pm
And Bemused when your natural proclivities are centrist then it is more likley that parties could move strongly away from where you feel comfortable.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 2:59 pm
guy
can you keep us posted please?
by Lyne Lady on May 23, 2012 at 3:00 pm
If Gillard & Albo think Thomson is 100% innocent, why then is he suspended from the ALP?
Fair question.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 3:00 pm
3287 evan.
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 3:01 pm
TLM
It is a fair question. It has been answered fairly.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 3:01 pm
@TLM/3314
Stop moving targets your no good at it.
Oh btw, the reason why is because proper procedure.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Combet certainly has the cajones for his role. Future PM material.
by Peter of Marino on May 23, 2012 at 3:02 pm
This is so important for Pyne. If the ruling is that Thomson stuff cannot be the subject of questions until the committee reports, then end of saga.
Pyne has shot off both feet in two days.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Because idiots like you would be accusing the Government of harbouring criminals otherwise
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 3:03 pm
bluegreen @ 3312
Seems like fence sitting to me.
The main division in politics is between the wealthy and powerful and the rest.
This manifests itself in such matters as public health vs private, public schools vs privileged private schools, IR system like ‘serf choices’ etc.
Which side are you on?
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Could we please avoid references to Abbott’s cock?
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Surely services which have been (hypothetically) procured by a person need not necessarily be for their own use.
by William Bowe on May 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm
It’s very interesting that a person calling themselves a “Labor Man” wants to see the party fall on its arse. Says it all really. With supporters like that who needs enemies.
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 3:05 pm
hear hear Peter of Marino.
and on the Thomson being booted from Labor thing…
being booted from the ALP is at the discretion of the ALP and its standards.
being booted from the Parliament is at no ones discretion. It is decided by law! FFS.
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 3:05 pm
read summaries of court cases against current parliamentarians
http://ashghebranious.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/3420/
sinners Abbott, Mirabella, Craig Kelly, Wilkie
by billie on May 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
In this case that’s not the claim though, is it?
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Sorry zoomster, sometimes a biblical reference can be very apt.
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
For bluegreen http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iAIM02kv0g&feature=fvsr
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Bemused
The world is not binary.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 3:07 pm
G
The claim appears to be silent on who actually got the leg over.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 3:08 pm
True – though like Gary, Im not sure thats the claim being made against Thomson.
by lefty e on May 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm
bluegreen @ 3330
On the big issues like those, it is.
But of course there are also the fence sitters. Watch you don’t get splinters.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm
William
I thought that was covered in Thomson’s speech.
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Sex workers are unlikely to reveal their clients. This has been gone over before. I also wonder whether sex workers at brothels would be required to sign non-disclosure agreements to cover the brothels for loss of revenue if it got out that their workers were less than discrete.
by ltep on May 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Lizzie
I am very interested in your biblical ref. Tried to work it out
Genuinly can help
by my say on May 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Long time to do the count…
Ms Gillard overheard laughing whole-heartedly…
Ayes: 68
Noes: 72
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 3:10 pm
If Thomson is innocent, why then has Gillard hinted that he’ll be disendorsed before the next election?
I understand that the government needs this man’s vote to stay in office, but Labor attaching themselves to Mr Thomson won’t do them any favours.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Albo shutting the twits up,gloves on
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Mr Pyne got about two sentences as seconder… before Mr Albanese moves that he no longer be heard.
Division required.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 3:11 pm
quite enjoyable. It’s ice to see Albo going the rat for a change.
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 3:11 pm
3AW Melbourne @3AW693
MFB have told our newsroom that the Tullamarine Control Tower have requested a ‘full response’ for an Air Mauritius flight with 190 on board
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 3:12 pm
So how many times can the gov’t do this, until the end of QT?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Evan, speaking of attachments, Mr Thomson voted for Mr Rudd in the leadership election. Pity he’s one vote down now from his previous level.
by ltep on May 23, 2012 at 3:12 pm
The new paradigm. No freebie speeches from SSOs anymore. No longer heard – and no longer clips for TV News.
Albo loses but so what the clock has expired.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm
TLM
You certainly do ‘obtuse’ with, if not verve, then persistence.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm
lizzie
That sounds a little concerning
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm
itep: Thomson voted for Gillard
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm
ru
About time too
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 3:14 pm