Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Happy Birthday Crikey Whitey!
by political animal on May 24, 2012 at 12:48 am
I just want to put on the record that I wasn’t paid any money to appear in Hansard.
by ShowsOn on May 24, 2012 at 12:50 am
Blimey, happy birthday Crikey Whitey!
Did you get my e-mail re the identity of Edith?
by scorpio on May 24, 2012 at 12:50 am
Happy Birthday!
For your birthday I decided that I would be quoted in Hansard.
by ShowsOn on May 24, 2012 at 12:50 am
4013
Do you have a link for being quoted in Hansard?
by Tom the first and best on May 24, 2012 at 12:54 am
It is in Hansard. It is not my job to be your googler.
by ShowsOn on May 24, 2012 at 12:58 am
Vic crisis for Bailleau
_________
The scandal over the improper use of a govt car by the Lib Member for Frankston may have serious implications for the State Govt
It is being investigated by the Lib Speaker … however don’t expect any surprises !
However it goes to show how close is the Govt margin…/45-43 and how easily it could fall in a by-election given that Big Ted has angered teachers/nurses/public servants/emergency workers/TAFE students and staff…the list is very long
seer this interesting article from The Age tonight
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/a-new-rort-claim-and-parliaments-reputation-falls-further-20120523-1z5en.html
by deblonay on May 24, 2012 at 1:01 am
DRDR:
Really? You’re talking about logic and consistency and you give us that?
1. Wilkie. It’s not Wilkie’s fault. If it’s anyone’s fault it’s that of the independents who wouldn’t support Wilkie’s proposal. The problem here is that Wilkie is trying to lay the entire blame at the feet of the ALP. In actual fact it’s a success – or partial success – despite Wilkie. The ALP found a way to deal with problem gambling anyway.
2. Greens. Even if they had supported the ETS it wouldn’t have passed the Senate. So that’s nobody’s fault in particular. But the action of the Greens in voting against the ETS effectively took it off the table as an issue, and allowed the climate-change deniers to run riot for months. They can stand around pointing fingers – and they do – but that is what happened. They got what they wanted – a spike in primary votes – but they set action on carbon pollution back two years.
Scenario 1 is that of a man letting his ego dictate his political response, but at least not hindering action on his pet issue.
Scenario 2 is that of an issues-based party failing to get anything done on the primary issue they stand for. In fact, all they succeeded in doing was taking it off the table.
by Aguirre on May 24, 2012 at 1:04 am
The USA is bankrupt
_______
California is cutting police staff and closing schools and hospitals and in many areas schools close for a day a week to save money…indeed many US states and cities are insolvent…bad news for those who bought bonds for health and education locally
But there is money…for war and “security” a Trillion literally !!!
…that was just last years expenditure on war and the military
Pres Eisenhour warned 50 years ago of the way the military-industrial complex might come to rule and impoverish the USA…and that day has come … so no money to health services or schools….bad luck kids …but here’s a gun !
Read Prof Cole expose of this amazing rort in which the military are NEVER denied anything
http://www.juancole.com/2012/05/americans-pay-1-trillion-a-year-for-war-and-security-why-hellman-kramer.html
by deblonay on May 24, 2012 at 1:14 am
It’s impossible for a country to go bankrupt in any meaningful sense because it can always print money.
by ShowsOn on May 24, 2012 at 1:16 am
If victoria goes back to labor ,abbott will be replaced ,probably with someone just as dopey.
by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 1:17 am
4109
Unless it is in the Eurozone where it has to leave the Eurozone to print money.
by Tom the first and best on May 24, 2012 at 1:18 am
The USA could go to war with china and all thier problems would be solved,germany and japan did not understand the american economy or its knowhow and industrial might.it is all still there.
by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 1:20 am
Sure, but I have long felt that would ultimately be the solution to Greece’s problems. Go back to the drachma, float the currency, the currency will take, thus making its exports cheap for the rest of Europe, that will then revive the economy over time. They could even increase their inflation target in order to devalue the debt.
In the mean time, they would then be able to set up a proper taxation system.
by ShowsOn on May 24, 2012 at 1:28 am
4112
China is about 4 times the population size of the USA and Germany and Japan were smaller.
Germany also went to war against the USSR.
US industrial might has declined.
The USA won WWII in large part by being able to build ships in massive quantities (military and cargo) and sink Japanese ships. Ship sinking technology has advanced a lot since then (particularly that held by the Russians and Chinese) and the age of a superpower being able to dominate the sea with aircraft carriers and other ships is nearing if not already at an end.
A significant proportion of US debt is held by China.
by Tom the first and best on May 24, 2012 at 1:30 am
All the more reason and note you did mention yankee airpower like stealth bombers and drones and I could drone on and on
by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 1:32 am
The USA economy
Much US industry has gone “south” to Mexico under the NAFTA pact
Also there is no longer a US steel industry..and the rail system …a mighty force in the 2nd WW is a shadow….and the US is indebted to China which supplies all sorts of goods the USA no longer produces !!
Nearly 50 million poor Americans now rely on food stamps for their daily bread
by deblonay on May 24, 2012 at 1:36 am
Thank you.
I am so delighted to have had another birthday. I was so despondent in the last year….but still cannot stop smiling now.
Happy Birthdays to everyone.
by crikey whitey on May 24, 2012 at 1:36 am
Afghanistan …The end
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/05/22/the-end-in-afghanistan-is-totally-predictable/
Counterpunch looks at the “totally predictable end” to the war in Afghanistan
by deblonay on May 24, 2012 at 1:38 am
4113
Greece leaving the Euro would cause huge pressure on Portugual`s, Spain`s and Italy`s bond interest rate and may force them out of the Euro too. This would likely put pressure of France and maybe other weaker Eurozone nations too as speculation would increase. It risks a destruction of the Eurozone which would set European integration back decades. What is needed is more integration (a transfer union) and more democracy.
by Tom the first and best on May 24, 2012 at 1:38 am
Scorpio
I laid off the iPad for a day or so. I have to get up as if I were asleep chance would be fine in about two hours to get to the plane.
So leaving sunny QLD sad to have missed you, will be doing a reprise of the duck confit at the Rising Sun lunch.
Much love.
by crikey whitey on May 24, 2012 at 1:44 am
Greeks are taking their Euros out of the bank because they are scared that their banks are going to go broke. The ECB has already stopped lending Euros to TWO Greek banks. A New York Times article on the weekend quoted several bankers in Greece who think the Greek banking system will collapse BEFORE the next election in mid-June.
The politicians have managed to arrange things so none of them will be P.M. when Greece is forced to exit the Euro. It will be left to the acting P.M., a judge, the remove Greece from the Euro and bring back the Drachma.
by ShowsOn on May 24, 2012 at 1:55 am
Seems murdochs house of cards is starting to fall even without piers morgan thing
http://www.smh.com.au/world/profound-consequences-phonehack-lie-accused-set-to-front-mps-20120523-1z3u4.html
by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 2:02 am
Means abbott and pyne could have no more flies than themselves in the dunny.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-24/china-sets-public-toilet-standards/4029626
by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 2:23 am
The indefensible back-stabbing of Rudd in 2010 was a sign post for the deterioration of Australian politics to its current tawdry state where with addition of the Thomson business in parliament surely must be seen as being in its most grubby state for a long long time.
People have no confidence in either Gillard or Abbott but are given no other choices which just adds to the deterioration of respect and belief in the major parties and their leaders. They get to choose between two people they don’t like.
Labor because of its actions back in 2010 are one by-election away from total obliteration, Australia is because of Gillard’s actions back in 2010 one by-election away from an Abbott PM and controlled Senate.
Way to self destruct Labor. Those impatient for their personal power have made a mess of everything, and dealt a blow to the future as well.
by Thomas Paine. on May 24, 2012 at 2:27 am
I never knew you felt that way, TP.
by William Bowe on May 24, 2012 at 3:49 am
Happy Birthday, Crikey Whitey!
And good morning to all Bludgers awake at this ungodly hour!
You will get your clarion call once the sun IS actually up …
by Danny Lewis on May 24, 2012 at 5:45 am
Do you really need me to repost your comments made at the time of the change over?
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 6:07 am
by CTar1 on May 24, 2012 at 6:28 am
If a professional sex worker can remember Thommo after 5-10 years then good on him! He’s either hung like a rogue elephant or a master technician. Or both.
Either one is a badge of honour.
by Burgey on May 24, 2012 at 6:32 am
morning all
from all accounts mal washer is a decent human being. however his advice to joel fitzgibbon that he has a ‘duty of care’ re thomson has a very hollow ring to it. what advice has mal washer given tony abbott on this issue? if none, then he provides tacit approval to the damaging hounding of craig thomson by the opposition.
by Lyne Lady on May 24, 2012 at 6:41 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/may/23/leveson-bloggers-regulation
Not much to it other than that Leveson LJ is thinking on it …
(And, of course, the trad press would like to muddy the waters by bringing up as many complications as possible.)
by CTar1 on May 24, 2012 at 6:43 am
by Danny Lewis on May 24, 2012 at 6:43 am
Time has run out for the pro coalition media and abbott
its near impossible for an election before july 1 this year
by Meguire Bob on May 24, 2012 at 6:47 am
It still wont stop news ltd/ coaliton from spreading propaganda until july 1
40 days left
by Meguire Bob on May 24, 2012 at 7:00 am
The sun is up.
The birds are singing.
Labor is still in government.
Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.
Wayne Swan is the World’s Greatest Treasurer … incidentally, has anyone received the gong two years in a row?
Tony Abbott is still the World’s Greatest Dickhead. He wins that every year, hands down.
Gotta love the stuff with the hooker. As Burgey said, Thommo must have been pretty memorable if she can pick him out of a line-up after all these years. But then again, it’s amazing what can be “remembered” when someone gives you a cheque for $60,000.
by Danny Lewis on May 24, 2012 at 7:02 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
I wonder whether ACA tracked down the hooker in Barcelona?
I also ask the question, “What has Abbott done for the good of Australia in the last two years?”
Surely deep religious upbringing is great!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/just-finish-it-sister-tells-of-moment-she-saw-parents-kill-teen-20120524-1z5yv.html
Surely the owner of this aluminium smelter has said that the carbon tax was four fifths of five eights of f### all in the future non-viability but it gets reported as a “direct cause”.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-fires-up-over-smelter-threat-20120523-1z4r4.html
Alan Moir on the Euro difficulties.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope with a real swing at the MSM.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe with a good likeness of Bob Carr.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 7:05 am
See ACA spent 90 minutes in Craig Thomson’s office harrassing him yesterday…’duty of care’ anyone???
by Lyne Lady on May 24, 2012 at 7:12 am
What can one say????
http://www.americablog.com/2012/05/catholic-church-now-talking-about.html
And again?
http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/iowas-republicans-have-lost-their-collectiv
Quite a tide of support for birth control in the US.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/23/1094154/-Not-breaking-Gallup-poll-shows-everyone-thinks-birth-control-is-morally-acceptable-
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 7:15 am
Huh? Whose duty exactly? He could ask them to leave at any time.
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 7:37 am
http://www.americablog.com/2012/05/catholic-church-now-talking-about.html
Two words:
evil bastards
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 7:39 am
Huh? What for?
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 7:41 am
Woo Hoo!
Just checked in with Centrelink and I am getting an extra $419.75 tomorrow.
Thanks Wayne and Julia
by Danny Lewis on May 24, 2012 at 7:44 am
Good morning all.
Are rogue elephants known to be better endowed than elephants who stay within the herd? A purely scientific line of enquiry btw.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 7:53 am
The problem with the Thomson case from a police point of view is that News Ltd journalists and now channel nine journalists have now tainted potential witnesses. Anyone receiving payment to take to a Steve Lewis and his fellow scum bags cannot be seen as a credible witness giving evidence under oath.
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 7:54 am
try that again
Anyone receiving payment to talk to…
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 7:55 am
Good morning all,
Well, I can’t see signs of ill health in the rotten Abbott, and I loathe the man enough not to care one little bit if he is suffering something nasty that will cause him much physical and mental pain. He deserves to spend the rest of his life in the hell his religion teaches that applies to all whose souls are scarred with the sins that preclude them from entering the kingdom of heaven. No amount of absolution meted out by Cardinal Pell can ever erase the sins committed by Tony Abbott. He is evil personnified.
by janice2 on May 24, 2012 at 7:57 am
Speaking of elephants, here is this morning’s dose of cute.
http://onebigphoto.com/uploads/2011/10/father-son-and-elephant.jpg
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 7:58 am
confessions
With a purely scientific answer .
http://www.elephant.se/musth.php
by poroti on May 24, 2012 at 7:59 am
Morning bludgers
janice2
Cant disagree with your sentiments. This man does not have a Christian bone in his body
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:00 am