Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Boerwar
I is shocked I tells ya!
by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 9:25 am
payclaw
Australians need to wake up. They are being conned by vested interests
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:26 am
I like the idea, someone suggested earlier, of an identification line of serving politicians for the prostitute to choose from. The Privileges Committee, moral guardians as they are, would no doubt volunteer.
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 9:28 am
Joe 2 @4207
I heard that I/V of Senator F-W. It was pathos personified and I sent her a missive in response.
As you say, she kept rambling on about the many alternative ways to fund aged care and Mr Faine gave her literally dozens of requests to name some.
And the only one she came up with was that adult kids fund their aged parents’ care.
by psyclaw on May 24, 2012 at 9:28 am
Btw it is not illegal to procure the services of a hooker. The question is whether Thomson misused union funds to do so.
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:29 am
Lee Rhiannon
The gift that keeps on giving
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/green-sorry-for-attacking-own-party-20120523-1z5k6.html#ixzz1vjqrMhWo
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:30 am
The Australian Sex Party and the Eros Foundation should be piggybacking on this for free media.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 am
No conflict of interest here! move along….
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-uncover-200000-donations-20120523-1z5lc.html
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 am
BW, our P/E is infinity and we are still making motza
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 9:32 am
joe2
There is nothing to see when it involves the Fibs
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:32 am
Victoria
From the media yesterday …. not sure of precise source …. Spain with unemployment of 24+% is far ahead of Australia on a measure of optimistic outlook.
Abbott is winning on the issue that we’re in deep shit. Will post-July 1 months turn it around????? Hope Greg Combet gives Abbott another powerful blast about this in QT today. Would be even better if MSM reports the same.
by psyclaw on May 24, 2012 at 9:33 am
psyclaw
Abbott needs to be rolled. He is wrecking the place
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:34 am
Dee – I hope Thomson’s lawyers are really on to the Lawler/Jackson connection but just one thing I don’t understand.
I watched Jackson with Uhlmann and a presser she did later where I thought I heard her say that she and Carol G and their partners were friends and saw each other regularly. Is that right or did I mishear?
by BH on May 24, 2012 at 9:34 am
The problem with the prostitute story is that at the time of the alleged acts Thomson was an insignificant client so why would anyone remember him? Smacks of just more silly sludge stuff.
by davidwh on May 24, 2012 at 9:35 am
It makes me laugh that someone reckons they can ID a client who was a one-off from 7 years ago. I can’t even remember all my students from back then and I saw them nearly daily. The naughty, funny and delightful stick. I wonder whether this prostitute thought Thomson was naughty, funny, delightful or remembers him by some other noticeable feature.
We really are in the thick of the anti-enlightenment. Logic, reason and criticial thinking are out the window in favour of titillation, salaciousness and gossip. We’ve devolved back to being medieval peasants with few interests in the world other than sex, violence and food. I imagine Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Sophie Mirabella and Christopher Pyne will soon be out with crosses and pitchforks. Maybe we’ll get a good old-fashioned burning at the stake. All the peasants can tune in on ACA to watch.
by Fiz on May 24, 2012 at 9:37 am
Do the latest revelations against Thomson cover the misuse of union funds or is it just an allegation that he has had sex?
by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 9:37 am
Glengyron @glengyron
“What’s the most degrading thing you’ve ever done as a prostitute” “An interview with ACA”
by Greensborough Growler on May 24, 2012 at 9:38 am
….psyclaw, he is just Ruppy’s toy boy. With all that backing he should be further ahead.
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 9:38 am
I was talking to someone who is heavily involved in a non-HSU union. He said that the HSU negotiation/ industrial action model was not to engage constructively around issues, not to use the media for campaigns, not to raise issues through community activities, not to bargain with bosses: the HSU industrial models was to threaten preselections and to offer and withdraw electoral funding for elections and pre-selections.
It worked a treat with 16 years of state ALP government but now….
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:39 am
I’ve seen enough movies to know that he must have a tattoo on his posterior. We long ago entered the realms of fiction with this whole buggaloo, so I’m sticking by my prediction.
by Son of foro on May 24, 2012 at 9:39 am
True, but of the two set of “professions”, cartoonists are much better at incisive political commentary.
by Danny Lewis on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 am
Vic, you an I agree on this. We just differ on the best strategy to achieve it.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 am
psyclaw
Even worse was that people in Spain felt far more financially secure than Australian’s. Time to sign up with Mega George’s “War on Whingeing”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_war_on_whingeing/
by poroti on May 24, 2012 at 9:41 am
Can Do has taken funding for HIV….
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/central/protests-on-the-agenda-after-hiv-funding-withdrawn/story-fn8m0qb4-1226364729092
i predict civil unions will be scrapped before the end of the year. what a right wing swerve QLD is taking.
by middle man on May 24, 2012 at 9:41 am
son of foro
what is your prediction?
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:41 am
BH
I didn’t hear it but I would be very surprised if it was a friendship, more like co-operation for self protection.
by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 9:44 am
No David. This is an exercise in utterly destroying a person so it should be described in far stronger terms than “silly sludge stuff.”
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 9:44 am
Morgn Face to Face 58-42 to Coalition
http://www.roymorgan.com.au/
by docantk on May 24, 2012 at 9:45 am
TH
Agreed. Silly sludge does not cut it. The msm and the coalition have been an utter disgrace
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:45 am
Well, it had to happen didn’t it. If you wave a big enough wad of money in front of a bunch of prostitutes one of them is bound to take it. After all, how many roots do you have to perform to rake in $60,000. (pardon my crassness for a moment).
Neil Michell surprised me this morning. He said he is totally against that sort of thing and queried the reliability of someone who is prepared to sell her body for sex. What else would she be prepared to sell, he asked. Fair point I would have thought. He also gave the impression that there is a growing chorus among journalists and politicians that this is just going too far and that there is growing sympathy for Thomson over the whole thing. Me thinks it could be that the shark has just been jumped.
by Darn on May 24, 2012 at 9:46 am
It’s QLD we don’t have gays up here. We are all conservative Anglo Protestants who love queen and country, carry shotguns, eat damper and plum jam and vote National.
Also we are bloody good at beating the Cockies in the league
by davidwh on May 24, 2012 at 9:46 am
Darn
I tend to agree with that assessment. It is becoming a farce. Soon the Slipper farce will also be exposed
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:48 am
Either a hammer and sickle or Mickey Mouse.
by Son of foro on May 24, 2012 at 9:50 am
Son of Foro
I need a bit more context.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:51 am
Ok sinister sludge stuff if you like.
Whatever name you give it pretty grubby stuff.
by davidwh on May 24, 2012 at 9:51 am
Cassidy on 774 scathing of Abbott and media for convicting Thomson.
by triton on May 24, 2012 at 9:52 am
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:54 am
Well, thank goodness he’s showing a little sense.
by lizzie on May 24, 2012 at 9:55 am
davidwh
You also have an amazing jury selection system
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/clifford-ohara-25-found-not-guilty-of-dangerous-driving-after-his-ute-hit-and-killed-carrie-stone-29-and-daughter-isabel-5/story-e6freoof-1226364934613
by poroti on May 24, 2012 at 9:56 am
Was there a tugby match last nite ?
by Mick Collins on May 24, 2012 at 9:56 am
bg
Why should they be nameless? We all know they are all guilty of everything already. They should be on the Tainthood list.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 9:56 am
BG I think the FD will be very cautious over expenses for quite a while and we are likely to see more questions raised. Remember the UK a few years back when the floodgates were opened?
by davidwh on May 24, 2012 at 9:57 am
It would be hilarious if Abbott was one of the MPs being questioned about his expenses
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:58 am
Mick oh yeah
by davidwh on May 24, 2012 at 9:58 am
by lizzie on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 am
DL
My slight correction was just that slight. Precisely because of the good point you make. Also because ultimately a journalist who is editor chooses the cartoon to be shown.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 am
They must have slipped down behing the cushion on the sofa
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-uncover-200000-donations-20120523-1z5lc.html#ixzz1vjyTLAPb
by poroti on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 am
First words on 774 10.00 am news: “The federal opposition says …”
by Son of foro on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 am
BW
Perhaps someone from the tainthood should get an asterix against their name in Hansard. Sort of like what should be put against the bowling averages of Muralithuran in the record books.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 10:02 am
Court Challenge on. This one is about ASIO reports on immigration. First story after headlines on News 24
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 10:02 am