Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Greens will block legislation in current form.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Greens will seek amendments for $1 bet and a start date.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Sen x lost his buddy Wilkie. Now he has a new friend Di Natale
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Good, makes them look like fools again.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 1:54 pm
triton Posted Tuesday, May 22, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink
Today’s MPI: “The importance of public confidence and public trust in the Australian Parliament, and how the Parliament should respond to matters related to the Member for Dobell” proposed by Mr Oakeshott (Lyne)
I WISH
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 1:54 pm
@rummel/1649
You sure it’s a joke? Because sounds like serious allegations to me.
by zoidlord on May 22, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Pick the ideological consistency in Howes speech.
“I’m a dig it up, chop it down sorta guy”
“need focus on output productivity, investment in housing, R&D infrastructure not peasant workforce”
“we need to be more than a populist movement.”
“everytime he criticises the RBA the reaction from academics is laughable but he lives in the real world.”
“Collaboration is the key to productivity growth. Business, Government, Unions and Academia need to come together.”
F_cking hell. My brain just exploded.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:55 pm
so it has finally dawned on you that this might be the case
that’s not a criminal matter so far as I’m aware (especially if he is an atheist)
The real stinking behaviour in all of this is that of Abbott yet he professes to be a modern day catholic yet acts like he’s conducting inquisitions in Spain tell lie after lie with no care or concern for the consequences.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 1:56 pm
bg
howes made some very pertinent observations. On the other hand, he also talked crap
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 1:57 pm
What a fool he is. The more he speaks the more of a clown he appears to be.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 1:57 pm
guytaur@1631
The normal group were busy at NPC.
by ShiftyPhil on May 22, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Rummel, herrings don’t muddy the water, in fact even big fat ones have very little impact on water quality. I think you will find that European Carp do a very good job of muddying the water.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Labor is looking bad on Pokie reform still. Labor needs to commit to real change for the test. What has changed for the problem gambler as Senator Di Natalie said. Labor’s legislation changes nothing for the problem gambler.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 1:58 pm
bakunin
My apologies to Mr McLuhan, and possibly Mr Chomski should he resent being misrepresented as being Mr McLuhan.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Now Parliament House.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:00 pm
There is a shrill, hysterical Liberal on Sky with Graham Perrett. No idea who he is, but he appears to be cut from the same cloth as Brandis.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Good on you Swannie:
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/swan-says-july-1-a-gamechanger-20120522-1z2j1.html
BTW, Swan is a noted Springsteen fan. Springsteen’s new album is very political – it takes a big swipe at vested capitalist interests. The album is called “Wrecking Ball”. Swannie should quote the lyrics to Abbott during QT –
by Lynchpin on May 22, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Well i want thomson’s head on the same pole as Hollingsworth.
by rummel on May 22, 2012 at 2:00 pm
No PM yet. Wonder when she’s back.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:01 pm
The Greens have never come up an answer to the question of how to eat an elephant. Until they do they will not be a party that can be trusted.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 2:01 pm
I hope Burke does better than she did yesterday.
by triton on May 22, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Pyne rasing a matter of privilege
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:01 pm
raising
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:01 pm
bluegreen
Fine. Your carp win.
by rummel on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
The pure Greens cut of your nose to spite your face.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
rummel the impaler (apologies to vlad)
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Mr Pyne matter of privilege. Mr Thomson. Misled the House.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
That’s spies for you, not bright enough to download freeware off the internet or haul a 14 year old out of their lair/bedroom to do the deed.
Didn’t Rupert Murdoch own an Isreali hacking agency NDA, News Data Analysis? or something according to a BBC Panoramrama report from early April 2012
by billie on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Pyne first up with a “matter of privilege” re. Thomson.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Pyne alleging Thomson misled the House
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Pyne is still yapping away. Slipper can’t get back quick enough!
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Well you won’t get it so try to relax and smell the roses.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Sophie, in her best behaved & adorable moment http://images.theage.com.au/2012/05/10/3285295/albosoph_20120510160114740558-420×0.jpg
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
confessions
That was Mr Tudge.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Someone yelled at Pyne missed what it was
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Boerwar:
Thank you. His name suits his demeanor.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Here we go. Prissy submitting to Privileges Committee that yesterday Thomson misled parliament.
Stand by for Albo to return fire with grapeshot aimed at the Puff Adder.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Albo Point of Order
To let public know Labor letting this go on.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:04 pm
So the whole effort to force Thomson to make a statement to parliament was to then accuse him of misleading parliament. How predictable.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Pyne using denials by the HSU grub as proof!
New standards of evidence?
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm
BK, did he say in what respect, specifically?
by Lynchpin on May 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm
lol, Yes sit down and be quite Labor.
by rummel on May 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm
The funny thing is Peter Slipper gets to decide where this stuff goes next.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Pyne disgusts me.
Facts? WHat facts?
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Pyne complaining that Thomson didn’t defend himself properly, when parliament was not the place to make a defence. Essentially Pyne is whingeing that Thomson didn’t say what Pyne wanted him to say.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm
So he has no evidence. This is a stunt, surely.
by Lynchpin on May 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Excellent tactics by the Opposition. They are lining Mr Thomson up chapter and verse using a referral to the Privilege Committee.
by Boerwar on May 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Lynchpin
Prissy is listing lots but nothing of real substance.
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Lynchpin
No doubt it is a stunt. He does not have to read it all out. As Albanese has just pointed out in a point of order.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 2:08 pm
@Boerwar/1696
Yes, but using Serial Character Assassination Techniques.
by zoidlord on May 22, 2012 at 2:08 pm