Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
And this from Possum on the OECD Better Life Index -
by leone on May 22, 2012 at 4:57 pm
@1986 – Gary
The PM arranged it – she came back from Turkey – organised on the Saturday for both Thomo and Slipper to fall on their swords and then announced that she had to do it because “a line had been crossed.”
Explain how that is spin?
And as for your 1988 – how is my statement crud? – it is the facts.
by Compact Crank on May 22, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Some may have to let malcolm turnbull know, wasnt he tweeting aboit a scandanavian country.
Two nights ago regarding their fiscal policy during the gfc
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Maybe Roman Polanski could make a movie about her?
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 4:59 pm
1993 – Poroti
Yes it was “bloat”. My father arrived too late to save her.
by gigi on May 22, 2012 at 5:00 pm
CC@2001
Read and weep. Australia is moving forward!!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303610504577419320948930402.html?mod=wsj_share_twee
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Crankyboots @1983
Wilkie – once green slime, always green slime.
That will be hard to top as the nastiest comment of the day.
by Brian Mc on May 22, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Another credit to Labor economic management. That OECD result.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Complete Crank
You really do need to try harder. You sound like a high school student at the end of a bad day. Life isn’t really that bleak you know.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 5:02 pm
how good is that??
Sarah Joseph @profsarahj
With our “hopeless” govt? RT @Simon_Cullen: The new OECD Better Life index puts Australia at the top, according to WSJ
by Lyne Lady on May 22, 2012 at 5:03 pm
OC:
I don’t think it was Katerina. I think Sophie has an older child, but zoomster would know.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Compact Crank, what’s your point?
Slipper and Thomson are now independant, so what, totally constitutional.
What Abbott is proposing is UNconstitutional, that being a separation of powers where an unconvicted MP of any crime no longer has a right to vote.
Why should Abbott hold one view for members of his own party and a different view for someone else?
Abbott is a disgusting filthy little hypocrite that is definitely not fit to be an MP.
Thomson clearly got that right!
by Centre on May 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
by Son of foro on May 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
OC
YES!
by Lyne Lady on May 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
@2006 – you would of course be aware that Wilkie was both a member of the greens party and in the Intelligence Corps – which in the Army is affectionately known as the green slime – motto – “Who Knew?”
If that trumps the filth that has been ladled onto female members of the Coalition by posters here then I am suprised at your interpretation of nastiness.
by Compact Crank on May 22, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Yes, Alexandra was the ‘demon child’.
BTW, they are both gorgeous girls.
by zoomster on May 22, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Thomson didn’t complain. He hasn’t given any indication that he is unhappy with the decision so stop spinning.
by Gary on May 22, 2012 at 5:05 pm
zoomster
They must take after their father.
by leone on May 22, 2012 at 5:06 pm
“if that trumps the filth that has been ladled onto female members of the Coalition”
At least CC has the good sense not to refer to them as “lady members”. The Coalition females are certainly without much class.
by psyclaw on May 22, 2012 at 5:07 pm
David Donovan@davrosz
New Thomson story coming on IA shortly
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Hey Centre, how about you tell us what you really think?
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
CC
The line that has been crossed will be evident to you soon enough
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
From yesterday’s events in Parliament, regarding The Hon. Albanese & The Hon. Craig Kelly.
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2012/05/22/albo-gets-owned/
by Gauss on May 22, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Here come the lizard people.
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 5:10 pm
TH it would use too much bandwidth
by Centre on May 22, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Crankyboots
I know it is silly to get caught up in a conversation with you but since Wilkie is certainly no longer a member of the Greens nor of the Intelligence Corps how can he be described by anyone other than a poster with a nasty attitude as being presently “green slime”.
by Brian Mc on May 22, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Who would be the mother from hell? Sophie Mirabella or Kathy Jackson
Sophie had to lose weight to be in consideration for a Liberal front bench seat. Has she toned down her blood red lipstick or does that show well for the cameras
by billie on May 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Filth? We women love it when others notice we’ve lost weight.
OTOH there is no argument against Sophie’s vituperative, intemperate, sneering, arrogant behaviour, both in and out of Parliament. If you have one, then I’d be interested to hear what it is.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Professpr George Williams Constitutional expert is for an Independent Commission.
by guytaur on May 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
@2011 – if the ALP is so concerned about presumption of innocence then it wouldn’t have got Thomo and Slipper to fall on their swords or say that Thomo won’t be pre-selected.
As for the Unconstitutional stuff – nothing unconstitutional has happened. The Opposition know the numbers and know the Dependents won’t do anything that will bring on an election – therefore they can bluster all they like about course of actions knowing they won’t get the numbrs – no different to the Greens approach to policy development really.
The ALP will keep Thomo in Parliament until the end of 2013 even if it means they have to roster members to do CPR to avoid him being pronounced dead following heart attack or stroke.
Having read the FWA report I encourage every opportunity be taken to continue raking over the coals. Given the delays, most of the corrupt acitivities will never be tested in court due to statutes of limitations and memories becoming dim. The poor HSU members deserve justice – at least this way the will get some.
by Compact Crank on May 22, 2012 at 5:13 pm
ltep
It is pretty obvious who is feeding the lizard people stories to IA.
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
2016 – once again – how is it spinning? – you have not rebutted one fact.
by Compact Crank on May 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
CC
As I said earlier, it will become apparent to you soon, who have crossed the line.
Get the popcorn ready
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
stuff the troops
we got Corby
by bluegreen on May 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Itep
Wicks ready to announce his nomination as scooper of the year by Andrew Elder
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 5:17 pm
All true, except two being several.
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Could this get Thomson off the front pages?
by BK on May 22, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Home ny august
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 5:18 pm
So the Govt has finalised the prisoner exchange scheme?
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Obviously the government have engineered this to change the media focus.
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Professor John Uhr, professor of public policy at the ANU is against one.
The Clerk of the WA Legislative Council points out
by ltep on May 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
I am more convinced than every nw that parliament will run full term.
I am hopeful that Slipper returns to the Speaker’s chair soon, as QT is much the poorer for his absence.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Hope this right.
by Gauss on May 22, 2012 at 5:22 pm
confessions
So am I. Pyne has been yapping far too much.
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 5:23 pm
@2041 – anyone who expects this Parliament not to run full term (ignoring deaths of ALP/Green/Dependents) is delusional.
by Compact Crank on May 22, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Dem BISONS der STAMPEDIN’, Finns!
Hopefully all over Tony’s disgraceful Anti-democratic, Anti-Rule of Law lot.
by OzPol Tragic on May 22, 2012 at 5:25 pm
A compulsive court/commission is only any good if you appoint a top notch retired judge to the job.
ICAC under David Ipp QC (formerly of WA) has been phenomonal – under Barry O’Keefe it was a disaster (eg Paul Gibson defamation).
Absent the compulsive process (of a coronial inquiry in this case), Phoung Ngo would never have been tried and convicted in relation to the assassination of John Newman.
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Gauss
You willing to admit that SIM card cloning can be done by teenagers yet?
by ruawake on May 22, 2012 at 5:25 pm
@CC/1983
You don’t call the Opposition the Opposition, they are called the Coalition.
You are the alternative/rival.
Stop using stupid excuses.
by zoidlord on May 22, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Complete Crank @ 2044
At last you’ve said something sensible.
Now get that message through to Abbott so that he is aware that good policies will win the next election
by Tom Hawkins on May 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm