Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Honestly, what has the Liberal Party of 2012 come to?
Fraser is disgusted, Menzies would be spewing on the other side, and what about voters such as myself!
What if it was Abbott v Milne contesting the election if there were no Labor Party, who the hell would I vote for?
by Centre on May 22, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Gweneth,
I just read out your words to my oh, i think now the penny has dropped with him you spoke
With such clarity, and calmness.
Thankyou for expressi g it so well
We have to hope good win s over evil soon.
by my say on May 22, 2012 at 9:20 pm
BH
I’m opining this without any evidence, but I wouldn’t mind betting that migrant parents tend to shield their first-generation Oz offspring from the shit that they encountered.
However, it’s been observed for many a long year that the people most affronted by the latest surge(s) of immigration tend to be the ones in the second-latest surge(s) of immigration.
As in: “We had a REALLY good reason for coming here. Youse lot don’t” (so bugger orf) or words to that effect.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Fiona
It’s the old pull the ladder up behind you behavior. Self interest will always win.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Could be something in that because we found that the Italians and Greeks did the same to the Vietnamese as we had done to them. Strange things we humans!
Orf to bed – early start tomorrow. Goodnight all. Hope it’s not all Thomson tomorrow.
by BH on May 22, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Night bh
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Rossmore.
Comparing Australian systems of educaton to apartheid is akin to all those cretins who call others Nazis as gratuitous expalnation of some policy or other.
Apartheid was a wholistic system of racist Government specifically designed to subjugate and separate peoples living in the same environment.
I invoke Godwins Law and call you a cretin.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Gweneth
It is good to hear the treatment is going well. Positive vibes being directed your way.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 22, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Thanks guys.
Anyway thats it from me for tonight.
Keep an eye on rummel.
by Gweneth on May 22, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Thanks GG, that’s huge.
I follow politics more than most, yet I was not aware that Kathy Jackson is married to Michael Lawler the vice president of Fair Work Australia.
How informed of the whole debacle would ordinary Australians be if I was unaware?
NO bloody EFFING wonder they took 4 freaking years to complete their report. There is a conflict of interest!
Thomson MUST have his day in court.
I hope he sues the shit out of everybody.
As for the
that’s it, me and you half time in tomorrow nights origin, in front of a packed house 
by Centre on May 22, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Night gweneth
by victoria on May 22, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Tourism factor, maybe Dio? The jail would be like a ozzie, bogan, shrine.
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Greensborough Growler
Apartheid by the way,much to Australia’s shame, was based on the Queensland’s
” Aboriginal Protection Act “
by poroti on May 22, 2012 at 9:31 pm
GG
We will have to call it Growlers Law when a spurious comparison when an odious government is made.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 9:32 pm
That is not Apartheid.
This is Apartheid:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apartheid_in_South_Africa
Your comment belittles what it was.
My own view is when it comes to private or public education subsidy, as long as the private subsidy is less than the public one it is all ok. The government’s job is to get the kid educated, if parents are willing to pay more to get the job done, then so be it.
I went to a school that had the Highest average year 12 score (private and public) for a couple of years.
There are still some very good state schools around, both in the country and in the city.
I don’t think it’s about the money it’s about the student and parent that care about education.
by fredn on May 22, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Joe
Perhaps Corby could conduct tours.
Given that a lot of the reason for punishing someone is as a deterrent, the Indonesians have really got their message home to Aussies about drugs.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Centre
I suppose that will take the mind of a New South Welshman off a 20-0 halftime deficit and the obvious questions why NSW picks last years losers and a coach who triumphed the fact that one of the team is play his “first debut”
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Centre
The story has been doing the rounds for nearly a week. I’ve been linking it wherever I can. Why the heck has the msm been so slow about taking it up?
And how can almost voiceless people like us get it out into the msm?
(BTW, I don’t think that Ms Jackson and Mr Lawler are married, but it would seem that they are in a relationship.)
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 9:35 pm
I find myself choking on my own sputum, but I have to agree with you Diog.
You are rIGHt about that.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Oaeshott mentioned the Vex News version of it during his MPI (not too different from IA) and then dismissed it out of hand.
by Bushfire Bill on May 22, 2012 at 9:37 pm
I don’t think so; apartheid was dreamt up in a little church in capetown based on the interpretation of a passage in the bible:
Acts 17:26 (KJV), “God…hath made of one blood all nations of men for to dwell on all the face of the earth and hath determined the times before appointed, and the bounds of their habitation,…”
by fredn on May 22, 2012 at 9:38 pm
poroti,
Adapted and improved by those South Africans.
Shitty ideologies have to come from somewhere. I’m sure someone could actually quote the Bible as a reference if they were warped enough. You may be right about your assertions. I really don’t know and don’t particularly care.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 9:38 pm
GG Suggest you google the term “educational apartheid” and you’ll see it is a widely used term to describe the impact of unfair government funding approaches that privilege the private education system, another pernicious form of middle class welfare.
I’ve noticed that most Australians are offended by the term … Which I think speaks volumes….
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 9:39 pm
BB
Which just about confirms my opinion of Oakeshott: a charming but muddle-headed wombat.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Diogenes
I know zero about the Corby case BUT why would she smuggle drugs into a country where they were worth less than seven times that of the country she left ?
by poroti on May 22, 2012 at 9:40 pm
bb, can you give more detail on that, I missed it?
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Shorten is reported on msn as saying he has nothing on his desk re Lawler. Even if he did if the government had a choice between attacking FWA on behalf of Thomson or leaving it to him to attack the FWA alone, it will choose the latter.
by shellbell on May 22, 2012 at 9:41 pm
O in his MPI speech today was quite dismissive of “websites” carrying this kind of stuff.
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 9:41 pm
“muddle headed”………pfftttt
by Last name red wombat on May 22, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Hope it is happening elsewhere.
Chad Griffith@griffithchad
Another 10 people joined the ALP in our area today. That makes 30 people that have joined in the last month. Must be doing something right
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 9:41 pm
bb, I am talking Oaky response to vex.
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Rossmore
I assume you mean that it is unfair that the government spends less money on children who go to private schools than it does on those who go to public schools.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 9:43 pm
As I said, just using the term educational apartheid in an Australian contexts brings howls of outrage. A big elephant in the room. Just as racist attitudes towards Aboriginal people and migrants, as noted in other contexts tonight, is just below the surface of many Australians.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Thought it was a union representing ‘unqualified others’ working in the health services
by Dee on May 22, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Rossmore,
I suggest you understand I don’t give a shit about your bullshit excuses. If you try and use the term on this blog I’m going to call you a fucking moron every time.
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Fiona, all people hear is that Thomson is delusional and his story cannot possibly be believed.
Shellbell if the Blues are down by 20 at half-time, they’ll need a stretcher for Abbott
by Centre on May 22, 2012 at 9:45 pm
fredn
Seriously. The Seffa’s National Party sent people to Straya and the core of the Apartheid regime, the pass laws, was based on the Queensland laws as applied in Queensland to Aborigines.
by poroti on May 22, 2012 at 9:45 pm
I found it outragious because it belittles what apartheid was. Such a comment needs something like godwins law to deal with it.
by fredn on May 22, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Schnappi, I’m rejoining tomorrow night
by outside left on May 22, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Oaky is a duffer if he cannot even get that just the impression of a conflict of interest is enough for Lawler to step down, permanently.
by joe2 on May 22, 2012 at 9:47 pm
LNRW:
One of my earliest memories is – as a 2 and a half year old – scrambling up the back of an armchair in the living room of my parents’ flat to reach the radio on the mantelpiece so that I could switch on the blissful Children’s Hour.
Back then, all I was really interested in were the first ten minutes or so: the sing-a-long, then Ruth Park’s Muddle-headed Wombat, but for all of my childhood and adolescence that program was an inspiration to me.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 9:47 pm
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/05/whipped-high-ranking-fwa-official-michael-lawler-flipped-from-opus-dei-to-the-dangerous-cult-of-kathy-jackson/
by Toorak Toff on May 22, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Diogenes. Australia’s level of investment in the private school system outrips every other OECD country. Can’t recall the exact figure but read recently The Kings School in Sydney receives 4 times the Gov subsidy per pupil that Eton In the UK receives.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 9:49 pm
poroti
It never made much sense to me either.
I always said they should have fingerprinted and DNAd the inside and outside of the cannabis bag. If her fingerprints were on it, she was clearly guilty. If it was clean or someone else’s, she may well have been innocent.
They never fingerprinted the plastic bag.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Rossmore
If we spend less educating kids who go to private schools than public schools, I’m struggling to see the problem.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 9:50 pm
The central question Rossmore is, does kings collage receive more per student than clifton hill high, if the answer is no, then the public purse is getting a bargain.
by fredn on May 22, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Toorak Toff:
That link doesn’t work. It just hangs without loading.
Is there another link to the story, or has it already been buried in litigation?
by confessions on May 22, 2012 at 9:52 pm
There are government schools that everyone can go to. The Government should not subsidise private schools as they build division in society. Private education should be subject to GST and (over a certain threshold) gift tax.
by Tom the first and best on May 22, 2012 at 9:52 pm
poroti
That is what I can never understand either. Surely they fingerprinted everything?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 22, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Centre @ 2435:
So, what do we do to counteract that opinion?
I’m doing as much as I can, short of going out and self-immolating in the street.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 9:53 pm