Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Don you are right it is the private schools argument, but if you light a weak candle you can see the holes to have the chauffeur drive the extra wide RR through.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Diog It’s a question of degree. Oz spends an extraordinary amount on private schools compared to any other oecd country (and commensurately less on its public school system). Result: a segregated educational system. Gonski is on the right track. Every other night on here there’s nudge and winks about what attendance at particular schools signifies – usually elite, expensive private schools. Barely ever a mention of a public school.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Or you donated the same amount of money to your public school, who wouldn’t spend it – as some of the ‘better’ private schools do – on better art works for the principal’s wall (such a good investment) but on teacher’s aides or upgraded equipment.
by zoomster on May 22, 2012 at 10:27 pm
And diog probably in Adelaide like Perth it is small enough so that you ‘know’ who went to the right schools, you don’t need to ask, that would be a very bogan thing to do.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:29 pm
BH 2388
I was one of the kids in the Quonset huts—Glenelg Immigration Hostel. Horrible place!
by political animal on May 22, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Political Animal,
I hope that you didn’t have to endure the venom that is now directed at anybody who has had that experience.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 10:34 pm
PA, I need to amend that slightly – because I think that the venom that goes to immigrants/refugees nowadays is much more vicious than whatever you encountered – and I deplore that as well.
by fiona on May 22, 2012 at 10:35 pm
When my daughter started uni (not that many years ago) she was asked in a seminar what school she went to. She mentioned a public school in the outer suburbs. Every other student in the senior had been to a private school. They said WTTE that it was amazing she had got to uni from a public state school, and how would she get a decent job without a private school background. Very sad I thought.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 10:35 pm
WWP
I have not the faintest idea what school any of my registrars or residents went to and couldn’t care less.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:36 pm
And for the record I spent most of my school years in a private school and my kids go to a private school.
While I would like to send them to the State School for me it would be unfair for their futures to send them to the under-resourced schools with the poorer paid teachers and all the problem kids from the social housing, when the Commonwealth pays a large chunk of my fees for me. So I can afford as zoom said, tutoring (but the school does a lot of extra stuff so they barely would have the time let alone the need) holidays etc etc.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Just about their ABC. Anyone know if the Canadian truth in broadcasting laws could be incorporated into the ABC charter/code of practice and could Conroy do it asap?
by Ian on May 22, 2012 at 10:37 pm
I apologise and am delighted that for specialist doctors at least Adelaide is a classless nirvana.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:38 pm
WWP
Lots of people feel the same way about private health insurance, which is a very similar argument.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Oh dear Diog. I have been torn on the private schools argument, notwithstanding having landed I have landed quite hard. Before I landed I have spent time with the chairperson of my school board discussing the private school claims in depth and we bashed both sides back and forwards as we forgot who was the devil’s advocate etc.
I have never considered there was enough logic, or foundation to what was essentially a stupid Howard policy to even consider that the govt subsidizing private health cover could in any rational universe be a sensible thing. It was absurd, it was wrong, it is still wrong.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:42 pm
WWP
The private health rebate isn’t what I’m referring to. it’s small potatoes.
The government pays a large amount to doctors for surgery done on private patients in private hospitals.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:45 pm
But … before I make a cuppa and head to bed, Howard won the private health care fight, because I can get effectively govt subsidized massages frequently, while poor people are queuing in emergency departments. It is very important that I get nice massages so it is a great policy. And yes private hospitals duplicate lots of stuff that public ones have, but I don’t have to queue, and mine is nice and clean and looks newish and lots of the medical stuff even works. Meanwhile …
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:48 pm
So it is much worse than I thought.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:48 pm
WWP
I never fail to be amazed at how few people realise that.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:51 pm
In the UK, the government pays nothing for surgery done in the private sector. That’s why only about 10% of surgery is done in private in the UK.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Diogenes. I think if you look into your student’s background you’ll find privately educated students are significantly over-represented. I suspect the public school students will be a tiny minority. In every other OECD country the ratio is reversed. In other words a level playing field where every kid has the same opportunity to achieve their dreams. Sadly not in Australia’s segregated education system.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Bloody hell, was that a Howard stupidity, or was it a hangover from pre-medicare, or was it a political compromise with medicare?
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I can tell you that medical school was about 50-50.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:57 pm
WWP
It’s a Medicare thing. They set ip up that way.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 10:58 pm
diogs,
How big is the back log for surgery
by Greensborough Growler on May 22, 2012 at 10:58 pm
No wonder Hawkie and the Paul we all want haven’t let us know about that one; if I was them I’d be keeping it a secret too.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Diogenes “I have not the faintest idea what school any of my registrars or residents went to and couldn’t care less.” That takes the biscuit, I give up……
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Well I really going to bed this time, I hope things like queues for organ transplants are purely on a needs basis and there isn’t a govt subsidized way to get to the front of a special private queue.
by WeWantPaul on May 22, 2012 at 11:02 pm
WWP
Transplants queues are run by the government. Private or public is irrelevant.
GG
I don’t know for sure but the impression I get from English registrars is that it’s a little bit worse than here.
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Rossmore
Why on Earth should I give a stuff what secondary school they went to eight years ago?
by Diogenes on May 22, 2012 at 11:07 pm
WWP 2526
“Well I really going to bed this time, I hope things like queues for organ transplants are purely on a needs basis and there isn’t a govt subsidized way to get to the front of a special private queue.”
But I suppose it is ok to apply the same logic to a child’s education. I give up again, for the second time tonight.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:09 pm
GG 2406
As you said correctly……
“Apartheid was a wholistic system of racist Government specifically designed to subjugate and separate peoples living in the same environment.”
That must tbe why the Rev. Tutu in South Africa recently described Israeli treatment of the Palestinain people as “worse than apartheid “..
Tutu would know !!
a view now shared by many enlightened Jews and others….including the noted Israeli writer ,Uri Avnery who also coined the phrase..”zio-fascist” to describe Libermann ,the Israeli Foreign Minister
by deblonay on May 22, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Diog, try social justice, a fair go.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:11 pm
The state/private school thing is very state and locality based.
In NSW state schools (especially selective ones) have a good name and when I was growing up selective highs were choice no one and private selected for KIDS WHO DID NOT MAKE THE GRADE (and country kids). It started to change a bit
Victoria however makes it very hard for a parent to choose state high schools since so very many kids go private there really is a very poor outcome for the state schools. In the primary level the teachers seem to avoid actually teaching kids to read and write – appears to be an optional extra.
Queensland is a mixed bag but I have found state schools MUCH better than private schools – and yes with real life experience. Was extremely happy with local state high school – better teachers than private school, nicer kids and happier atmosphere. Oh and at primary level they still teach the kinds to read write and add up.
by daretotread on May 22, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Diog
“Why on Earth should I give a stuff what secondary school they went to eight years ago?”
I’d hazard a guess that such views were common currency in apartheid South Africa and pretty much every country that has practiced some form of government sponsored segregation based on social class, ethnicity, color or religion. As I said earlier, the elephant in the room that dare not speak its name. Oz isn’t in that league quite yet, but it is getting dangerously close.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Diog, STOP THE PRETENCE.
you are a Tree Surgeon. You dont go to medical school to be a Tree Surgeon. You go to the mountain climbing school.
by The Finnigans on May 22, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Daretotread I speak from a Vic perspective, which I’d agree is more strongly dominated by the private system. It’s an odd feeling being shouted down on a left leaning blog for calling for a fair go in education.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Re private and state schools
_________________
Though the Whitlam Govt increased funds for all needy schools…the Karmel Report in 1973
was the first of many such efforts…in the years that have fiollowed we have seen the private schools backed up by money gouging churches of which the Catholic Church gives a prime example… reap a fine harvest
Only a few minutes drive from where I write we had last year a shocking example of a High School so run down(Bailleau had cut the funding for a Brumby-approvaed renovation)that the wiring keep faulting and the kids were without heating in a bleak Melbourne winter.. on many days
The long delay under the former Labor Govt reflected no credit on them either…a fact that disillisioned so many voters and saw Brumby’s demise…the list is long Myki/smart-meters…but this school would be a prime example…but Bailleau …a graduate of the wealthiest private schools in Vic cut it’s funds
However I went to a function at a well-known Private school in Ivanhoe a while ago…and as one who taught form many years in poorly equipped Govt Schools I could only gape at their facilities….really scandalous
and as someone posted earlier we are one of the worst such countries in the OECD
In France for example there is no Govt aid of any kind to religious schools…because that’s what they are …and this applies in many other countries…but sadly not here …
When I followed the ordeal of the kids at the local High School i cited,I was wondering when one of the “Christian” schools ” all so well off might come to their aid….I’m still waiting ,,,but not surprised .
by deblonay on May 22, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Rossmore 2535
_________
Who said PB was a left blog!!
a surprise to me I must say???????
…I think most are right-wing Labor/DLP,,and some are members of the Gillard Kamakazi Fan Club
by deblonay on May 22, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Deblonay precisely my point too. I too attended a function at a private school recently and was staggered at the conspicuous displays of wealth and privilege on show. Huge flat screen TVs in every classroom, state of the art gym that wouldn’t look out of place in a 5 star hotel, air con in every classroom. Grounds like a UK country house. And compared it to my local public school that struggles to get the roof fixed….Things started to improve with the BER but from an incredibly low base.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:37 pm
I have thought about it, including all the information presented so far, Craig Thomson’s speech, and the dodgy credit card slips with the misspelled name.
I am nailing my colours to the mast tonight.
My conclusion is that Craig Thomson is telling the truth.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 22, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Chris Coool@ccoool
Shame the media #heraldsun stooped so low #CraigThomson #auspol Lachlan Murdoch’s media interests under the spotlight http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/business/media-2/lachlan-murdochs-media-interests-under-the-spotlight/
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 11:43 pm
The funding by the taxpayer of wealthy private schools in Australia is a complete disgrace. They should end their age of entitlement.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 22, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Deblonay …. I said ‘left leaning’, but take your point. But don’t agree with your reference to Gillard…… The trend, 1 July and 18 months…. Time enough to recover …. And NBN, MRRT, NDIS, this years wealth redistribution budget, all in a minority government is a positive achievement.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:45 pm
PTMD
Me too,rabid abbott and pyne convinced me,as to why they have gone in like hyenas.
by Schnappi on May 22, 2012 at 11:45 pm
My eldest just graduated from Uni, straight into a good job with company car etc. Middle son has just started Uni after being head boy. Both they and their younger brother proudly attended (attend) state schools. They even mixed with some of those “problem kids from state housing”.
Oddly enough I warrant they are far less likely to stereotype others and look down on them than a few of the kids who have had “better” and certainly more expensive educations, going by some of the posts on here.
by Bob Figg on May 22, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Puff re Thomson
_________
Actually when I heard that that woman from the union was a :close associate” of a member of the panel of Fair Work…and that he was a former member of Opus Dei…I started to wonder too…Opus Dei ! !that Pell’s crowd..he is their”Chaplain”
by deblonay on May 22, 2012 at 11:49 pm
PMD a brave call. I agree there are a lot of unanswered questions and dubious associations. Certainly enough to raise doubts in my mind. And quite enough to attract a presumption of innocence. And certainly enough to shut down the star chamber that the Australian parliament has become. Let the courts sort it out if there is a case to be answered. Otherwise parliamentarians should butt out.
by Rossmore on May 22, 2012 at 11:55 pm
Craig Paul Roberts former Asst Treasurer in the USA and editor (pre-Murdoch} of the Wall St Journal….
predicts that the collapse of the US and European banking system may in the offing..an event without any precedent in history
By the way he said(sounds like an old radical…but he’s not) that the banks are in the USA are a criminal organisation almost as bad as the police.. as a menace to ordinary people
he clains that if you google “police brutality in the USA)you get tens of millions of entries
by deblonay on May 22, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Roberts on coming bank collapse in the USA
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/05/21/bet-on-collapse/
by deblonay on May 22, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Paul Howes says that Ms Gillard should be allowed to finish the job…………you mean the complete destruction of the Australian Labor Party for a generation?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 22, 2012 at 11:58 pm