Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Bob Figg, yep would agree with you. I think there is some reputable research that shows uni students with a public school background outperform their private school counterparts. Something to do with not being spoon fed and tutored to death in secondary school and thereby much more self resilient and better equipped to cope with the level playing field that most unis provide. The tragedy is that so few public school educated kids make it to uni.
by Rossmore on May 23, 2012 at 12:00 am
BS
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 12:00 am
Nah to to do abbott slowly,he lokked on drugs today
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 12:01 am
Is there a more self-important prig than Howes?
The man is in love with his own reflection.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 12:05 am
Big Rumour: One of the prostitutes who allegedly provided escort services to a certain “Independent” MP wil tell all soon to one of the major media outlets.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 12:07 am
I sent a Craig Thomson an email of support. I am very worried about the impact of all this, it would destroy me, and with all that hate mail he is getting, I thought a little to balance it would not go astray.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 12:09 am
Does the name Chris Pyne ring a bell ?
His PoO are almost as mind numbingly vacant as most of your posts
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 12:09 am
It is simple, I watched his speech and believed him.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 12:10 am
Really Evan. Where’s that rumour from then?
by Bob Figg on May 23, 2012 at 12:12 am
And it will probably backfire on the Fibs.
You really are a vindictive man Evan, all because the Indies support the ALP and not your mate RAbbott
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 12:12 am
TLM
Oh did crook or katter use one
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 12:13 am
Regarding Healthcare,
Public or private hospitals really have nothing to do with universal healthcare. If a private concern can provide a service more efficiently, then the government can pay them to do it, and save money.
People seem to think that health insurance is the only way to get private hospital treatment, which is nonsense. Anyone, including the government, can pay to get access to a private hospital.
The idea that health insurance props up the public system is a furphy, and the idea that taxpayers should fork out a rebate to people who want health insurance is not efficient.
It costs the taxman 1 cent in administration for every dollar he banks. It costs Health insurance companies about 11 cents… it is inefficient.
Health insurance should be for people who want more than what the universal coverage can deliver, and people who want it should pay for it without assistance from the government.
by Tobe on May 23, 2012 at 12:15 am
I feel sorry for Thomson too, but sadly I thought his speech yesterday was full of holes.
But the independents are still backing Gillard, and Thomson’s vote will still be counted on in the Labor column, so he’s sitting pretty……until he’s disendorsed before the next election.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 12:15 am
Obviously due process and respect of parliament mean nothing to you either Evan
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 12:17 am
Question for all those here who regularly attack Rudd: how would you react if he suddenly announced he was quitting politics?
People like Confessions regularly call for Rudd to piss off or leave the stage, but would you want Labor to fight a byelection in Griffith right now?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 12:17 am
Mick Collins: Due process is in the eye of the beholder, it obviously doesn’t apply to the Member for Hughes or the Member for Indi if you’re on the Labor side of politics.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 12:18 am
Puff. I think Thomson is entitled to the presumption of innocence and the antics of the coalition are disgraceful. Do they want the bloke to top himself?
They are not fit for government.
That said, the issue of the phonecalls from his hotel room and mobile to the escort agencies are hard to square if he is innocent and seem (prima facie) to be quite damning.
Which I personally don’t care about – that is his business.
That said, can someone tell me what law he has broken?
by Henry on May 23, 2012 at 12:18 am
a hyperthetical thats never going to happen, unlike you, Rudd is a Labor Man
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 12:19 am
Parsons has been reading Bolt again.
Nuff said.
by Henry on May 23, 2012 at 12:19 am
Dont see shrill calls for the Puff adder to be thrown out of Parliament Even. Stop talking nonsense
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 12:21 am
Could happen to abbott and pyne as well
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 12:21 am
Could happen to abbott and pyne as well
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 12:22 am
Mal Washer re Thomson
_________________
Dr Washer has been a bit of a Lib maverick on Global Warming and others matters too… and he spoke kindly of Thomson tonight on ABC…showing some compassion a rare thing in this matter
He warned of the dangers of” self harn ”
“Self harm”
That would of course suit Abbott and Co perfectly…and a by-election too
As to some big media exposure with a prostitute as witness how would they manage that?
Would she be anonynous…behind a veil/in a blur/etc
Who then would believe the media anyway,,she could be an actress!
I actually think the public is sick of the whole matter,,,I know I am
by deblonay on May 23, 2012 at 12:25 am
Puff, Schnapppi
I join you in nailing my colours to the same mast. CT told the truth IMO.
Did he engage in unmoderated spending? Yes.
Was this the culture he was in? Yes.
Is that any excuse? No.
Does that culture still exist? Yes
Is he a fall guy? Yes.
Is there a conspiracy against him? Maybe.
Are there others in the HSU to benefit from his crucifixion? Certainly.
Are/were the “others” a Ms KJ and 2 men who were her close affiliate/spouse? Certainly.
Are there still snouts still in the HSU trough? Certainly.
Are those snouts a Ms KJ and 2 men who were her close affiliate/spouse? Certainly.
On the off chance that the matter ever gets to court, I do not think that he will ever be convicted. There are just too many elements of doubt.
by psyclaw on May 23, 2012 at 12:26 am
Re MPs
________
So Sophie is worried is she ??
Some would think that her treatment of of old Prof Howard was worse than going to brothels
by deblonay on May 23, 2012 at 12:28 am
Big whoop: “Cash for comments” is so 1990s.
by Jaeger on May 23, 2012 at 12:29 am
psyclaw@2573
Agree with all ,and await what is in williamson suitcase his legals have so far stopped being opened.by police
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 12:29 am
Deblonay
I posted the following elsewhere a few hours back, and forwarded a copy to Dr Washer.
Quote:
Mal Washer did talk compassionately.
But IMO in the last few sentences he undid all his good work with a statement to the effect that this is politics and it is a hard game.
I thought it disingenuous of him to approach Labor MPs and tell them to watch over CT while he is a party to the attack.
At no stage did he say “we should reduce / stop our attack on him”.
I felt “good on you Mal” at the beginning but towards the end had changed to “put your money where your mouth is and pull Abbott into line”.
Thinking about what MW said now, my view is that his words are cheap.
Imagine if he had had the courage to say publicly “enough is enough”.
End quote
by psyclaw on May 23, 2012 at 12:31 am
Puffy @ 2539
Agreed. I’m backing Thomson as being the most truthful of the protagonists. Note I said “the most” truthful, because in a saga of this magnitude I doubt that anyone is being entirely open and honest.
I had come to view Thomson as being the fox, and KJ, her partner, and the Coalition – for various reasons – as being the hounds, and Uncle Rupert leading the pack, with a complicit media galloping along, or being led by him.
The clincher for me was the mispelled name on the credit card imprints. Has to be a card with the wrong name. This proves that at least three times the transactions occurred with someone else’s card. The whole case collapses around that issue – for me, anyway. If he is found to be the victim of a setup, or fraud, then the whole matter must be in question. Never mind if he actually used the brothels any other time, it seems he was targetted at LEAST three times.
If it can happen re the credit card, then everything else must be questioned. His statement that he is innocent, given the ‘apparent’ weight of evidence against him, seems to show a man with a lot of self-belief. If he’s a liar, then Monday’s statement may be the most stupid thing he’s done.
At this point, I’d back him over KJ, her partner, and the Coalition. I’m with you, Puffy.
by clements steve on May 23, 2012 at 12:34 am
Destroying a restaurant that’s it
_____________________
http://electronicintifada.net/content/well-known-beit-jala-restaurant-destroyed-israel-again/11309
by deblonay on May 23, 2012 at 12:34 am
thornleigh man
rudd has basically acted honorably under profound pressure – much much worse than thompson. anyone else would have quit long ago – he is also blindingly ambitious, which under present circumstances will be good because he will still not say no to another ago – julia can damage abbot and hold fort as long as possible – but the public has a pathological mistrust of her which has been proved as constant. this is great tragedy because she also is honorable if fallible soul who made two mistakes – knifing rudd and following orders of nsw right …
by geoffrey on May 23, 2012 at 12:35 am
Not a different credit card Steve Clements but somebody who used the old manual receipt for credit cards signing “thompson”.
Which if true opens a whole new can of worms but I haven’t this been reported anywhere in the MSM (I know) apart from rumour on twitter.
by Henry on May 23, 2012 at 12:39 am
oakshott lost it today – grandstanding while denying he was – courting liberals while denying he was – judging thompson while denying he was – seeking clarification short of court proceedings – populism affects the best
by geoffrey on May 23, 2012 at 12:40 am
“seen this being reported”.
whoops.
by Henry on May 23, 2012 at 12:40 am
TLM
Mrs Mirribella did keep her old frail former lover in the back yard, in cottage or similar. He did not get any care services, that we know of and his family found out his was sick when he finally ended up in hospital, where he died.
I hope there is a special section of Hell built for the people who do these sort of things to sick, vulnerable and elderly. I think it should be called the Mirabella Wing.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 12:42 am
was genuinely intrigued by thompson – a detailed and persuasive rebuttal it must be said – the fwa leadership/jackson issue is hot and previously unknown – am not sure he is 100% kosher but overall he surprised and calumny of jackson and others grows – esp in league with liberals … oakshott is right, someone is right, someone wrong, and the fallout seems great. wish he’d shut up and let court or some equippned inquiry do its job … suspension indeed
by geoffrey on May 23, 2012 at 12:43 am
For those fond of Wikipedia as an authority, see the following distortion of the CT matter. You’ll never quote Wiki again!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Thomson_affair
All set out formally in proper Wiki format, but written obviously by one of Benardi’s crew at Menzies House.
by psyclaw on May 23, 2012 at 12:49 am
geoffrey
“the fwa leadership/jackson issue is hot and previously unknown”
Really? The MSM have avoided this aspect, but 3 seconds of googling got this info for most months ago.
Suggest you spend 10 minutes researching KJ, Williamson, creation of HSU.
by psyclaw on May 23, 2012 at 12:54 am
Hey guys see what you make of 211
David Donovan@davrosz
Interesting. Look at the photo of the CC receipts for Thomson and note the card authorisation number: 211. Now refer: http://vpf.mit.edu/site/merchant_services/existing_merchants/declines
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 12:58 am
I have to agree with Harry “Snapper” Organs earlier concerns about attitudes toward immigrants…
Perhaps it’s an international thing, and Australia for some unknown reason is being infected by a global recession and inward thinking (that inevitably feeds recession and poverty). Or perhaps it’s our public preoccupation with Thomson, as if it matters, that keeps our minds numb and dumb.
by Tobe on May 23, 2012 at 12:59 am
Shnappi
very interestink!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:02 am
schnappi
can you put up the link to the credit card image please
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:03 am
Puff
http://vpf.mit.edu/site/merchant_services/existing_merchants/declines
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 1:10 am
Found it.
Do you mean the code and date in blue writing when everything else is in black?
211 Invalid card verification number.
Isn’t the verification number that three digit code on the back of the card?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:10 am
PTMD
Exactly
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 1:11 am
schnappi,
do you think you should tweet this to CT? Do you know how to send a pm (private message) on twitter?
Is Anyone on PB who used to work in a bank?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:13 am
intereSTINK!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:14 am
If that was declined then it would not appear on any statements.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:15 am
PTMD
have done so awhile ago did not do private just gave a tweet for david post hope thats ok? and told CT to look at and particular 211
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 1:17 am
What is with the blue ink?
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2011/08/maybe-craig-thompson-will-greet.html
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 1:17 am