Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@spur212/@guytaur/@political animal/@everyone else.
Stop being idiots, LABOR SUCCEEDED AND COALITION DID NOT.
Stop trolling the Blog.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 10:12 am
Fairfax has announced some Board changes. Still no Gina Rinehart
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120523/pdf/426f8q2cyq089w.pdf
by Laocoon on May 23, 2012 at 10:13 am
Mike Smith from 2UE was interviewed on 4BH yesterday and said he got the vouchers from the whorehouse just before he interviewed Craig Thomson. That interview appears in some detail in the FWA report.
by JohD on May 23, 2012 at 10:15 am
NormanK @ 2765
A tad pretentious methinks.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:16 am
The gamble would be going to a DD. Truth is that the failure at that time was Labor’s.
Labor was the Government. Rudd had just as many opportunities and obstacles to negotiate as Gillard. So no matter what you think of the Greens do look at Rudd and his actions at the time. He did not even attempt to negotiate with the Greens.
In the recent leadership challenge he confirmed he would water down the fixed price.
That meant if he became leader an almost instant election. Thus giving so many votes against him in Caucus. Rudd has a chip on his shoulder about the Greens. I do not know why but the evidence is plain. This is a Rudd failure. Gillard did negotiate with the Greens and two independent conservative members in Oakshott and Windsor. The claim about Fielding at the time may or may not be true. We will never know. Rudd failed to negotiate to find out.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:16 am
JohD
Really?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:16 am
What is wrong with holding Greens to account? 10m tons extra emissions is the cost!
by political animal on May 23, 2012 at 10:17 am
Yes, NormanK, well said. Rupert Murdoch is an anarchist, I have no doubt about it.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 10:18 am
guytaur @ 2770
Get your eyes tested.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:18 am
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:18 am
My point is, if that is a genuine original credit card slip that was honoured by the bank, how did whomever used it in the defamation case get their hands on the bank’s property, which I believe they are required to hold for auditting purposes?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:19 am
guytaur,
I suppose facts are always stupid to Greens.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 10:19 am
Bushfire Bill@2787,
Assuming it WAS Craig Thomson’s Driver’s Licence.
The number used on the Credit card receipt appears to have been correct, but the Photo Licence is dodgy.
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 10:20 am
joe2
The biggest laugh being that is is written by one of “Santa’s little helpers” . I wonder what is bugging Gerard as this is about the third article he has written on the topic ?
by poroti on May 23, 2012 at 10:20 am
Puff
Read JohD post
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:20 am
Bemused, I hope it goes viral. The Open letter thing is fine….
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 10:20 am
JohD@2802,
Wouldn’t that have been illegal for them and him to do? Those receipts aren’t his.
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 10:22 am
If he got it from the service provider, the payment wasnot honoured. The bank would not pay the retailer until the slip was presented, just as if it was a cheque. It still does not add up.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:22 am
Boerwar. I think it was car-crash-art-critic Robert whats his face that said in his book the Fatal Shore that Australians aren’t truly rebellious at all when it comes to issues of politics and government, and that we are in fact happy to be led and have certainty and to happily defer to authoritarian elements in society.
hence why we don’t like minority govt, and why most people dont really get upset at cops breaking up protests and tent embassies… we like order and dont like those that rock the boat. but one smart ass quip at the footy and you’re a ‘bloody rebel mate’ chortle chortle chortle…..
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 10:22 am
GG
Yeah the scientific consensus facts the Greens were sticking to is so ignoring facts.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:23 am
Guytaur, Fielding was a complete climate nutter. He couldn’t be negotiated with.
I think the Greens’ actions over the past Parliament have stunk. But I’ll still hold my nose and vote for them next time (most likely) because there’s no other real choice.
by ltep on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 am
@C@tmomma/2812
Credit Card details can get anywhere, he could have been there ages ago – but that’s not enough to punish him.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 am
Guytaur: Rudd had to deal with a hostile Senate, Gillard on the other hand since 2010 has had the luxury of an Upper Chamber where the conservatives combined with Xenophon or somebody else can’t block government legislation.
That’s why she got the carbon price legislation passed…..and it helped too that she caved into the greens on the $23 per ton starting price.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 am
Mike Smith also said he was a copper alongside the copper conducting the investigation, and that these docket contain some sort of chemical that indentifies the amino acids that make up fingerprints. So he feels Craig Thomson is in deep doodoo if his fingerprints are found on the dockets.
This is my issue with all of this.
The son of my grandfathers half-brother is also a copper, and he reckons it is all supposition and entirely composed of cow dung. I might add that he was a copper for thirty years in the 1990′s.
by JohD on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 am
@GG and @guytaur enough already…
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 10:25 am
I have made thousands of payments using credit cards and NEVER have I been asked for my licence or have my licence number taken down on the cc slip. So I must say on this one item, I am tempted to think that there is some kind of set up. But off course this is just one item.
by adam abdool on May 23, 2012 at 10:25 am
That top one aays Bank Copy. Just substitute credit card slip with bank cheque in the scenario. That slip was not presented. Was it because the authorisation code 211 indicates an invalid security number?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:25 am
bemused – Saw your post on CC charges the other night and thought I’d wait for you to turn up before taking the ‘piss’.
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 10:26 am
@TLM/2822
It’s called negotiating try it some time.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 10:26 am
And best still, poroti, the more he waffles on, the more the idea of Abbott as a DLP stooge get’s publicised. Something along with his Pell smell, Tone is desperately trying to hide.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvYzLIywCiA
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 10:26 am
You show your ignorance of politics. That or you are lying.
Rudd was at fault. He was Prime Minister and the one who refused to negotiate.
Now get with the programme and get out there and sell Labor policy success.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:27 am
adam abdool,
It is like a bag of chops. If only one is tainted, the rest have to be thrown out too.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:27 am
Another take on the OECD report on projected economic growth:
http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/fame-and-fortune/article/-/13757012/OECD-names-Australia-worlds-happiest-industralised-nation
A new report has named Australia as the happiest industrialised nation in the world with the country’s economy set to outperform the US and the UK.
A new report has named Australia as the happiest industrialised nation in the world based on various criteria like job satisfaction, income and health.
The study released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris last night says Australia is set to grow at just about the fastest pace in the developed world for decades to come.
by citizen on May 23, 2012 at 10:27 am
zoomster @ 2782
No, you are a rational Gillard supporter. This is a perfectly reasonable position even though I and others might hold a different position.
The cultists are another matter altogether and there are cultists on both sides.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:28 am
JohD
What do you make of all this?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:29 am
I did. In fact, when I was at Sec School, most Q kids did & few of us got away with not having to lug school bags up steep hills before school started. Given Q cities’ problems with regular floods, schools were built above flood levels. In Rockhampton for example both grammars & a couple of RC schools are on “The Range”. Briz’s RC Archbishop Duhig famously tried to buy every hilltop to build churches and schools. Several of the very few escaped him were bought by CofE, P&M, Grammar schools!
Most of us who did the daily long bus/ train/ tram/ up-hill walk (I used at least 2 types of transport, usually train-tram am, bus-train pm), did homework on the way to & from school. More interestingly, we mingled with kids from other schools (inc SHSs) at stops, in vehicles – the trips were usually more fun than classes; especially when, in the 50s, we weren’t supposed to mingle, even speak to, the opposite sex.
And the 50s, remember, were Rock’n'Roll. “Nice” kids from private (even SH) “skules” weren’t supposed to listen to something as degenerate as RnR – Yeah. Right. In our teachers’ dreams! I well remember a sweaty summer arvo of my Senior year, coming home on the usual packed train – now full of tearful school kids – the afternoon “The Telegraph’s” front page carried news of our heroes’ (Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens & The Big Bopper) deaths in a plane crash.
Would I swap my multiple transport/ long waits at stops & stations, H’work finished en route? The joys of friendship & gossip with contemporaries from half a dozen or more other schools – in my case, Gregory Terrace Cluster, Clayfield-Albion Cluster + Inner city & suburb kids from the State High (Gardens) complex, South Bank cluster (inc BSHS, Villanova), Toowoong, Ashgrove & Rosalie? So I could walk to the nearest secondary school?
Like hell I would! I’d have missed most of teenage’s wonderful fun-filled memories!
Thank my lucky stars that lack of local schools meant I spent my high school days out of my snoopy, over-protective mother’s sight, and missed the over-protective Nanny generation!
by OzPol Tragic on May 23, 2012 at 10:29 am
More about “he who shall not be named”:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/rambling-rudd-notsogarrulous-gillard-20120522-1z3ax.html
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 am
Mal Washer is a true gentleman.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 10:31 am
zoidlord@821,
I have a few questions that need an answer:
* How did Mike Smith know that A Touch of Class had a credit card receipt purporting to belong to Craig Thomson?
* Why does Mike Smith arrogate unto himself the right to put out this Credit card receipt as factual evidence in the Public Domain?
* Why didn’t Mike Smith do the due diligence that we here at Poll Bludger have been doing since that information came to us the other day before he went public with it on his radio show? If only to be fair to Craig Thomson before he made accusations to him.
* As Mike Smith was a former policeman surely he would have been aware of the rules of evidence and did he just ignore them in this case and why?
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 10:31 am
@TLM/2836
Umm so you portraying that Rudd is actually Evil ?
“he who shall not be named” is a reference from Harry Potter (which is fantasy movie/book series btw).
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 10:31 am
The Gillardites rewriting history again – you’ve obviously conveniently forgotten Rudd’s agreement with Malcolm Turnball.
It’s the fault of the Greens that the ETS didn’t get through the Senate, not Rudd.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 10:31 am
joe2 @ 2815
Open letters are usually written by well known identities and they lend their credibility to the letter. Who is NormanK?
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:32 am
Yeah, you might be right.
I suspect I’m getting the inconsistent stands on Thomson mixed up with the inconsistent stands on Slipper
by Danny Lewis on May 23, 2012 at 10:32 am
From a 774 caller on why the Thomson’s alleged hookers haven’t been found:
by triton on May 23, 2012 at 10:33 am
by Dan Gulberry on May 23, 2012 at 10:34 am
PTMD @ 2817
WRONG!
There are 3 copies of those vouchers. One for the customer, one for the merchant and one that goes to the bank. The merchant would retain their copy.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:34 am
guytaur
Rudd had two options to get the ETS through
1. Greens + Xenephon + Fielding
2. Coalition (more accurately the Liberals)
Try getting the Greens, Xenephon and Fielding to agree to a policy. Fat chance.
Rudd only had option two. When Abbott became leader, option two was destroyed although had the Greens supported the ETS, it would’ve got through as two Liberals crossed the floor.
After that, there were all sorts of timing, economic and senate configuration issues in relation to going to a double dissolution election and getting the policy up. That was what lead to Rudd dropping the policy.
Think about this: the Greens opposed taking action on climate change and managed to increase their vote at the next election, even managing to win a lower house seat. That’s the politics of this
by spur212 on May 23, 2012 at 10:34 am
The Greens held the final responsibility of casting their vote. The reasons they voted the way they did may be justified in their own eyes and in others, but Rudd did not put a sword at their backs or kidnap their gnomes and threaten to break them up. It was a freely exercised Senate vote. The responsibility stops with the Greens. They have their reasons. Those reasons may or may not justify the outcomes.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:35 am
TLM
No you cannot blame the Greens. Rudd refused to negotiate with them. An avenue unexplored. This is a Rudd failure. Rudd is not a god he has bad points. One of them is his failure to negotiate with the Greens at all in this circumstance.
Gillard has her failures too. One of them being not connecting with the Australian people as we see in the polls. So admit the Rudd failure here.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:35 am
Meanwhile in WA:
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/business-leaders-pay-access-liberal-224559957.html
Around 30 of Western Australia’s leading business figures have been paying $25,000 per year for access to Premier Colin Barnett and his ministers.
Proceeds from the group, dubbed the Leaders’ Forum, go into state Liberal Party coffers.
Perth construction boss Gerry Hanssen says the idea surfaced six years ago when the Liberal Party was short of funds.
But he denies the group is paying to influence government policy.
“We are a democratic organisation and there’s no better opportunity in the Liberal Party where you’ve got 20 CEOs sitting around a table and telling an individual minister what the state should be doing,” he said.
“It’s not a lobby group at all, it is a mentoring group for the Liberal Party.” Mr Hanssen says the forum is an opportunity for business to make its views known.
“When you’ve got the money, you’ve got a privilege, and I think it’s a good purpose,” he said.
Opposition Leader Mark McGowan says the Premier needs to explain.
by citizen on May 23, 2012 at 10:36 am