Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
OK, so Mike Smith might have been the copper on the case investigating Thomson, however that only makes all my other questions of his behaviour even more pertinent.
What gave him the right to put this information out into the Public Domain? Without a proper investigation of the material?
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 10:36 am
It’s a simplistic line to take really. The ‘fault’ for the failure of the CPRS lay at the feet of many people – Latham, for doing so awfully at the ’04 election, which resulted in the Senate numbers being so bad during the first Labor term; Rudd for negotiating only with the Opposition, rather than attempting talks with a broader range of people – also for not calling a DD after the Libs changed leadership; Abbott, for being so opportunistic with opposition to the CPRS, after earlier saying the Coalition should support it; Turnbull, for not bringing the party along with him; moderate members of the Coalition Senate team, who could have joined Troeth and Boyce in crossing the floor; the Greens, for choosing politics over action.
The list goes on.
by ltep on May 23, 2012 at 10:37 am
PUff
You are wrong. Again. Rudd failed to negotiate. Not just with the Greens but the Senate as a whole. Reasons were put out as to this but does not change the fact that Greens did not get a chance to negotiate.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:37 am
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:37 am
Some one who appears to more concerned about the country than you are!
by Ian on May 23, 2012 at 10:38 am
CTar1 @ 2827
Shhhhh, I don’t want the wife to know
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:38 am
Ian
Hear hear!
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 am
Have a look at the montage. AmI wrong in seeing the words ‘Bank Copy’ or similar on the slip? Also the white slip with the ink writing is the bank’s oriiginal, which they pay out on.
The others are carbon copies, usually one green slip and one yellow.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 am
There are strong parallels between modern politics and the first decade since the federation.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 am
joe2
Indeed.An opportune time to bring out the great Max Gillies doing a fine B.A Santamaria impersonation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9AOEa96hOE
by poroti on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 am
Good Morning Bludgers,
How are you all this fine morning?
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 10:40 am
bluegreen
I think he is as well he showed compassion last night.
Whatever we think of the Thomson case I thought he was under severe stress during his speech on Monday and all of us need to be careful that the stress doesn’t get too much for him.
Someone from the ALP also needs to be watching out for him.
by MTBW on May 23, 2012 at 10:41 am
Hmm Mal Washer has openly declared concerns for Thomson’s mental health.
No wonder Abbott intends to spend more on mental health, oh if he can fit it in somewhere in his costings I’m sure, he will do anything and destroy anybody for his ideology and power.
by Centre on May 23, 2012 at 10:41 am
guytaur
There was no avenue for Rudd to deal with the Greens unless you somehow managed to get Fielding, Xenephon and the Greens to agree. It was never going to happen
by spur212 on May 23, 2012 at 10:41 am
guytaur going the ‘look over there, a pink unicorn!’ route again, instead of explaining why the present carbon pricing scheme is so superior to the ETS that it was worth waiting two years for it.
If it was, then surely that’s a Green victory and he should be proud to explain why?
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 10:41 am
SK
All good. What about you?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 am
Swan will be relived that Gillard is back in parliament today.
Swan ain’t a great acting PM.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 am
It may just be an odd coincidence, but I found something out about Keywed, the nom de plume under which the escort services were provided. It has the address 573a Elizabeth St, Surry Hills. I had a look at it on Google Maps and it’s a door down a side street behind a cafe. Officially in Redfern, but I suppose Surry Hills sounds a little less down-market.
Anyway, I put the address into Google, and it appears that catering service at that address is also known as J & K Catering. J & K? When you put the address into Google, some of the listings are headed “Health Services Directory” and then link to ‘catering’ companies that seem to have nothing to do with Health Services. Don’t know why that might be either.
by Aguirre on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 am
guytaur
That is what I said. The Greens had their reasons. But that does not negate their responsibility for how they voted. They can explain it, they can justify it, but it goes not change the fact that they did it.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 am
The CPRS debate claimed multiple leaders including Rudd, Turnbull, Nelson etc etc.
The Arbitration Bill claimed Deakin, Watson etc etc and finally the least supportive of it in Reid finally prevailed.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 am
Guytaur: You refuse to acknowledge that the current composition of the Senate makes it easier for Gillard to get bills passed, the ones that the Coalition don’t support.
Rudd didn’t have that luxury.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 10:43 am
itep/2851
I disagree with some of your details along the way but agree with your ultimate conclusion.
In fact I think this says even more what a fantastic achievement this Parliament has achieved. A great Prime Minister and I do believe Gillard will be recorded by history as such and some very good people in extremis making good decisions.
This mud being flung around has shown the calibre of most of the politicians we are served by. People to be proud of as Australians even if we did not vote for them. Even on or two in the Coaltion like Mal Washer who stand out like dogs balls compared to the rest.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:43 am
victoria @ 2856
Ahhh the pack starts to form…
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:43 am
Swan did fine as Acting PM. Everything went well, actually.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:44 am
Surely to goodness there must be some hookers/madams around who would vouch for CT?
(No pun intended)
They would love to enhance their bank accounts with a blow by blow insight into CT?
(No pun again intended)
And finally, surely to god, a Murdoch tabloid must be able to hack into the phones to verify it all happened?
But then, just maybe, all this is just confected?
Where does the truth go to in media driven scandal?
by Tricot on May 23, 2012 at 10:44 am
Thought about the phone clone claim. Then thought about how could it be done without all that clandestine stuff.
Well it is really simple.
1. Swap out sim card of target phone into another phone. Target has his phone and is none the wiser that it is not his sim card he is using when making calls.
2. Take target sim card and put in another phone. Call forward all calls to the new sim phone no. so he is still recieving all his normal calls.
3. Make call with second phone with target sim to brothel.
Too easy. Even my kids could have done it.
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 10:45 am
TLM
Go back and read my posts I have addressed that. You may not like facts but they are there. Rudd failed. Admit he has failed he is not a god. It will do you good.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:45 am
PTMD @ 2857
I missed that, but it is not unknown for the wrong slip to be deposited and the wrong slip retained by the merchant.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 10:45 am
What if Thomson took his life?
John Brogden attempted suicide and the attacks on him were a drop of water in a backyard swimming pool compared to the attacks on Thomson.
Monkey can take it to his Jesus Catholic loving grave!
by Centre on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 am
Aguirre
Very curious indeed
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 am
You can argue that Gillard gave away far too much in the negotiations with the Greens, and that’s a major factor in Labor’s current parlous position in the polls.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 am
Anyone listening to the rotten mongrel LOTO on ABC24 at the moment? He’s trying to make himself out as pure as the driven snow – only making sure(ah) that justice is done. He has ‘sympathy’ for anyone in trouble but has more sympathy for those poorly paid HSU members who’ve been ripped off $500m…..
by janice2 on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 am
victoria,
Kids have colds but otherwise all is good – until war breaks out over State of Origin!
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 am
zoomster
See my reply to Itep@2851.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 am
Tony Abbott you are an obsequious little C%%^&
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 am
Kate McClymont’s latest attack on Craig Thomson in this morning’s SHM includes the following paragraph. “The article reported that Mr Thompson’s mobile phone showed two calls to numbers associated with the agency. The bills also show the location of the phone as someone driving from Bateau Bay on the central coast to Sydney on the date the credit card was used at the agency.
A bit of sloppy writing there: first the phone shows the numbers and then the bills (more than one?) show the location as a person rather than a place.
Much more important (at least to me, as I analyze the information) is that it is claimed that the bills not only show that phone calls have been made but that they were made by someone driving a car and more furthermore the bills show the car was being driven to Sydney. It seems a lot of unconfirmed and unconfirmable guessing is going on here. So it looks very much like sloppy journalism as well as sloppy writing.
by Brian Mc on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 am
Sk
Good, considering Schnappie probably cleared Thomson last night.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 am
SK
That’s right State of origin is tonight. May the best team win!
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 am
janice2
His answer to the Mal Washer question by Journo was telling. Will be interesting to see how that is reported.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:48 am
janice2
I made sure I did not watch Abbott. He is vomit inducing
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:48 am
Swan has been fantastic since Gillard has been away. The treasurer certainly knows how to land blows.
Abbott is looking sick from it and is losing hair by the chunk loads.
Go gettem Swannie
Evan you are a clown, you know that don’t you?
by Centre on May 23, 2012 at 10:49 am
Then Tony Abbott
Chris Pyne
Fairfax
The Telegraph
The Herald Sun…..
will have his blood on their hands
by Mick Collins on May 23, 2012 at 10:49 am
Sorry Guys – working. I apologise – the interview was on 4BC – drive with Gary Hardgrave around 5:30 Pm.
by JohD on May 23, 2012 at 10:49 am
Puffy,
I missed it. What was the essence of his theory?
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 10:49 am
I believe he said the info was leaked to him by the SMH and he called the brothel.
they indicated on the phone, that it was a requirement that the girls see photo ID or they would not get paid.
by JohD on May 23, 2012 at 10:50 am
Just further to Aguirre’s post, I suppose a liaison at a brothel might well constitute a “Health Services Union”
Maybe Thommo can run with that.
by gough1 on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 am
Puff/2868
I do not mind the blame being shared around because truthfully this is true. All parties were at fault for not getting it passed under Rudd.
I just object to those that say it was the Greens fault alone. Then try and rewrite history to make out that it was a waste of time to do the vote they took at the time.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 am
victoria,
Poss was on twitter very early this morning with links to twenty of the maroons greatest origin tries!
How is your family?
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 am
poroti – Gillies does B.A. a blast from the past.
Lionel Frost and Gareth given a going over in there as well!
Fun stuff.
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 am
Abbott must be in trouble. He is talking up Labor leadership again.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 am