Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Guytaur,
Abuse is all you’ve got.
It ain’t much, is it.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 11:35 am
davidwh, the Liberals only listen where there may be a few ignorant votes for thenm to win.
Don’t tell me, if you care for the well being of Thomson, you only want him out of the house to weaken the Labor Party?
A bit pretentious don’t you think.
Oh speaking of pretentious, our mate TP has joined the board.
Are you still pretending to be invested in gold TP?
Wow you must be really pretending to be shitting yourself
You were told right here first
weren’t you 
by Centre on May 23, 2012 at 11:35 am
poroti,
I posted this morning on twitter that Tony Abbott, by pursuing WorkChoices II, will be the architect of his own demise.
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 11:36 am
zoomster
Yeah united idiots who do not understand how Greens Politics works. Led by a politician regarded as one of the most ethical in the Parliament until he retired. People who call this Leader unprincipled and a hypocrite.
You show your true colours in politics when you do this.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 11:36 am
Morning
Another day of Thomson and another day with clean air MIA. Things are going well for the libs, 15 months left.
by rummel on May 23, 2012 at 11:36 am
This from The Hammock:
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/sunshine-house-becomes-lost-in-the-sleazy-shadows-20120522-1z2zy.html#ixzz1veWeg9kW
He really is a nincompoop.
by Lynchpin on May 23, 2012 at 11:38 am
Yes, more than enough time for anything to happen.
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 11:38 am
rummel
Interesting you say that. I think the air is clearing. I looked at Fairfax on line and Thomson doesn’t figure in the news headlines.
by Lynchpin on May 23, 2012 at 11:39 am
Gary
God forbid the Libs might need to release a policy in the near future.
and it will be fantastic.
by rummel on May 23, 2012 at 11:40 am
bluegreen @ 2997
If you want to understand the thinking of the likes of Ludwig, you need to read the excellent article by Peter Hartcher which has been mentioned here many times.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 11:40 am
Yes, fantastic in the true sense of the word:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fantastic
by Lynchpin on May 23, 2012 at 11:41 am
Workchoices Mark 11. Worked for them in 2007.
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 11:42 am
Bemused,
There’s a scene in Breaker Morant where Harry and his compadres are under arrest but called upon to repel the rampaging Boers who had the compound where they were being held under heavy attack.
Harry and the boys handled themselves well and helped save the day.
Didn’t stop the Poms shooting them shortly thereafter.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 11:42 am
victoria @ 2993
Yes, I return fire and I call ‘stupid’ for what it is.
Note I never attack the likes of davidWH who are always respectful of other posters and don’t talk nonsense, even if I don’t always agree with their POV.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 11:43 am
guytaur
we asked you to explain them. You can’t do so.
That’s not our fault.
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 11:44 am
bemused
Do you even know why I said the poster was either ignorant or a liar?
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 11:44 am
The Washer interview on 7.30 was concern trolling at it’s tabloid worst. If this man really gave a stuff about Thomson he would have called on his moronic leader to pull his head in and leave him alone and certainly not have made suggestive comments about self harm.
Just because he is a doctor, the now stupid excuse for a current affairs show, concluded he was qualified to talk on such matters. He is not a mental health expert and he is a political rival. If anything the program, with it’s cut away graphics and colour changes, was about adding pressure rather than relieving it. Pathetic.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 11:45 am
Centre the loss of Thomson’s vote for a period won’t bring down the government however continual harrassment of the bloke may cause him serious illness, or worse, and force a by-election which could put the government in some trouble. If I was as callous as you infer I would be arguing the opposite of what I posted.
by davidwh on May 23, 2012 at 11:46 am
Bemused
Which article? A link?
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 11:46 am
I’m sure Australians have not been as happy since they were under the warm blanket of work choices. Australians have been feeling sorry for them self since they voted out JWH and nothing Labor has done has warmed the cockles of the voters heart.
by rummel on May 23, 2012 at 11:47 am
zoomster
I cannot invent things. Votes in Parliament happened as they did. Rudd did what he did.
Is is not for me to explain why Rudd failed to do certain things.
That is why a hypothetical like this is so dangerous and a gift to the coalition.
Andrew Leigh should have known better. Now the Noalition is going to run with its favourite hypotheticals. The Greens can say look how far forward we would be now if we had done this two years ago exactly as we have had it through this Parliament.
So get over yourself. Start promoting the policy that is in place instead of arguing hypotheticals.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 11:48 am
Agreed. But, as adults (esp Celebs typically targeted by Murdoch’s minions) tend to be more careful with their phones, not as simple as NotW used; simply because most people alter the phone co’s “password” for their own more easily recalled one, but fail to complete the next step – alerting the phone co and/ or deleting that password.
Thus the phone co records are easily hacked, as is the victim’s phone; thence all types of hacking – of friends’ phones, bank accounts, medical records, police records etc etc become easy – as the Inquiries have demonstrated.
This information has been in the public domain pretty much since the original cases involving princes William & Harry.
Off to lunch
by OzPol Tragic on May 23, 2012 at 11:48 am
GG @ 3012
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 11:48 am
If that is the case, then it hasn’t been presented at all or is a total forgery and we could be looking at another Lib./Media set-up as per Grech!
by scorpio on May 23, 2012 at 11:49 am
davidwh, then we can assume your compassion for Thomson extends to granting him a pair for a while? If so, I apologise for my earlier comments.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 11:50 am
guytaur @ 3015
All lost in your torrent of green nonsense.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 11:52 am
davidwh fair enough, but it’s not right that his vote should be lost.
You see Abbott and his disgusting pathetic behaviour WINS if Thomson loses his vote. How will that act as a deterrent in future?
Abbott, the Coalition and the media should let the proper processes take its course.
Enough, get out of the sewer and do the proper job MP’s were elected to do.
It proves Thomson was truly right, Abbott is not fit to be an MP.
by Centre on May 23, 2012 at 11:53 am
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 11:53 am
Washer has not stated he would cross the floor,he is as tainted as abbott /pyne and bishop,if the coalition gets government it will be tainted as to how it has gone about getting there,and abbott will be the most tainted PM for all time,how liberals can vote for someone so tainted ,and a party of mirabella,hefferenan,kelly whose tainted votes are accepted against abbotts filthy values,appalls me.
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 11:53 am
Yes um. Gold and silver. Gold at around USD$1230 And Silver at around $20
Perth Mint certificates and also ASX PMG
So the machinations and manipulations of HSBC and JPM with the Fed on precious metals is of little concern to me.
But something like this among many other things may help you get a clue..
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/images/mm20120329a.jpg
by Thomas Paine. on May 23, 2012 at 11:54 am
bluegreen @ 3018
Charge of the mates brigade will fail
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 11:54 am
So you admit to hurling personal abuse with no real reason for knowing why.
Nice.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 11:54 am
Danny Lewis,
I reckon that is what happened. I am no expert. The bank can ask that the card be cut up in front of the customer if they have cancelled it. (happened to me in London when I maxed out mine on holiday. Luckily it was the day we flew home. Tres embarrassment) But I can’t see a merchant being allowed to keep an intact card.
Authorisation numbers usually mean something. Three digits is too short to be a transaction or operator identification number, imo.
Doesanyone here know someone in banking who can tell us what the 211 means? Where isa bloody real investigative jounalist when you need one?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 11:56 am
Scorpio,
I would have thought any card declined because of it being unrecognised would been accompanied by a request to hold onto the card and to present all copies of paperwork, ids etc to the bank.
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 11:57 am
I think the Gillardistas here should listen to Paul Howes, slimy though he is. He has seen the writing on the wall and publicly apologised for his mistake in 2010.
Bit late for an apology but at least he appears not to be brain dead.
Now back to the ETS issue I think a fair minded person would allocate both blame and praise to all parties (actually this is usually the case).
The Greens were pig headed and took a risk and I have NO IDEA why they did not support it in the Senate when some Libs crossed the floor. Pig headed and stubborn. However they were consistent and preferred the CT over the ETS. They have won now a CT for several years. Outcome just marginally better than the original ETS. However potentially the Greens have lost BIG time because in 2010 the ETS was POPULAR and would have come in and not been seriously in jeopardy. Now not so positive, and may lose the lot.
Rudd should have made some effort to keep the Greens sweet BUT he knew that without the Liberals he had NO chance as Fielding was obviously a denialist. So Rudd could have handled the greens a little better (also Penny Wong) but it is foolish to assume that it would have made much difference in the outcome. It was a very difficult Senate for Rudd, because Fielding is such an odd ball
Gillard was unwise to encourage rudd to dump the ETS but has shown good negotiation skills with the independents and to a lesser extent the Greens. However she has had a MUCH easier Senate although a more difficult HoR. However the independents are generally (Wilkie??) more predicatble than Fielding.
by daretotread on May 23, 2012 at 11:57 am
albo on news24 talking straight and cutting through the spin.
by mickt on May 23, 2012 at 11:57 am
Ta Bemused
Surely this is not the case:
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 11:57 am
guytaur @ 3031
I am not going to trace back through the whole exchange. Work it out for yourself.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 11:58 am
Albanese looked relaxed and comfortable to me
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 11:58 am
guytaur
No one has asked you to. You introduced Rudd as a red herring to avoid answering the questions you’d been asked several times.
What hypothetical?
1. The Greens did not vote for the CPRS in 2009.
2. Their failure to do so means that – to achieve exactly the same target – $2 billion more will need to be spent.
Both are facts.
Right. So you’re admitting there has been no ‘value add’ by waiting two years.
On the other hand, we have empirical evidence – from both scientists and economists – that the wait has made the task more difficult.
Sigh. Why is asking you to back up what you say with evidence or argument – something I’m always happy to do – such a crime?
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 11:58 am
Just looking at possible scenarios re. this credit card transaction.
I have had a c/c machine for my business since 2004. I also have all the instructions for doing manual transactions when EFT is not available, printed on a bank-supplied “cheat sheet” (complete with dribble-proof plastic lamination, useful for brothels I would suspect).
1. The copy in the photo IS the pink Bank Copy (you can see the words “Bank Copy – Sales” running up the right hand side of the docket. They are blurred, but that’s what they say.
2. One of the “Card Type” options is “Bankcard”. As Bankcard was discontinued in 2006, this indicates that the blank docket was printed before that time.
3. According to the cheat sheet supplied with my EFTPOS machine, I can use Manual Card Processing when:
(a) The EFT system is down (technical fault of system).
(b) The EFT system is not available (away from base, merchant phone lines down)
4. For Manual transactions only (one with the “click-clack” machine), if the transaction amount is over the floor limit an Authorisation Number must be sought. (which can be keyed-in/deposited at the bank later).
5. The Authorisation Number is not the bank’s EFT Transaction Code, but IS more akin to an Operator Number/Transaction Number, so I think “211″ is a bit of a red herring, I’m afraid (I rang my service provider and checked).
6. The “Bank Copy” does NOT have to be deposited in the bank. The transaction can be keyed in to an EFTPOS machine later (in the case of temporary downtime or unavailability of the system). This is similar to when you order a pizza home delivery and give card details over the phone to avoid having to pay cash when the pizza is delivered.
Which leaves a few questions/observations:
1. Why the wrong spelling on the card (“Thompson”)?
2. Why wasn’t the brothel’s EFTPOS machine working?
3. Or was a manual transaction done because the hooker brought a “click-clack” machine to the hotel room?
4. If (3) then why wasn’t the docket deposited? Was it keyed-in to the EFT machine back at the brothel later, when the lady got “back to base” (as it were)?
5. Why does the BOTTOM copy (the “Bank Copy”) have blue biro writing on it? All the other writing (sales description, signature etc.) seems to have transferred through the carbon copy pages OK. So why only the Authorization number in fresh handwriting?
6. Why is there different handwriting between the black lettering and the blue lettering (check the numeral “4″s – the blue “4″ is open, the black “4″s are closed). These details – in particular the date – have pretty clearly been entered AFTER the signature and other details were recorded, by a different person from the original issuer of the docket.
7. Why would a Madam give a 2UE thug an original copy of any customer’s c/c docket? Especially in his/her business, which you’d think would require absolute discretion? Would anyone ever use “Keywed” ever again? (Regular users of Keywed’s services would recognize who “Keywed” was).
8. There are 6 character boxes available for Authorisation Numbers. Why were only three digits filled out? (My bank’s Authorisation Numbers have three letters and three digits – 6 characters in all).
I haven’t covered it all, but this is some info for the Forensic Bludgers to ponder.
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 11:59 am
Blimey, that was a marvelous slap-down by Penny Wong in Senate Estimates then!
by scorpio on May 23, 2012 at 11:59 am
Joe if you were around when Abbott was threatening to refuse to pair some time back you would know I was very critical of the threat. As for now then it would be proper to grant Thomson a pair at least until he is actually charged with something assuming he ever is.
by davidwh on May 23, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Puffy,
Go back to Wombles post at 2671.
Link explains what code means.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 12:03 pm
bluegreen @ 3036
Not completely, but this is where it leads:
Again, not 100% right, but certainly a strong, if not dominant mindset.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 12:03 pm
TP
I’ll give you are chart to check;
1) where and when you said you got into gold right here at PB, and
2) the price of NCM when I said I sold right here at PB.
Stick to your little board game with a dice and pretend money until you get a little bit of confidence up to make your first ever investment
*gotta go, have a good one bludgers*
Oh go the Blues for tonight – unless I can get about $1.75 for the canetoads
by Centre on May 23, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Then I apologise, my opinion was based on what appeared to be a parliamentary seat grab under a new guise. One I could imagine Abbott running when he ceases punching the crap out of the bloke.
by joe2 on May 23, 2012 at 12:07 pm
BB@3040:
BB, I hope someone who can make use of this information is checking PB regularly.
Great analysis.
The case of the wrongly spelled credit card continues…
by don on May 23, 2012 at 12:08 pm
zoomster
Rudd failed to negotiate that is fact. Andrew Leigh put up a hypothetical. So get over yourself and argue about reality. The policy of today.
I pointed out to you the Greens would have nothing to block if Rudd did not present legislation so talking about what he did is essential to discussion of the facts of what happened. Just because you do not like that fact does not change those facts.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Not even a church leader has come out in Craig Thomson’s defence. Not even a human right’s official. They simply let him be hounded down even though he hasn’t been found guilty.
by gigi on May 23, 2012 at 12:09 pm