Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Dixer from Oakie.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 2:22 pm
A new opposition leader has done the ALP the world of good in WA.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Luke Simpkins (Cowan, WA) warned. Or Burked, as I prefer
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 2:24 pm
SK
I remember having a beer and a yarn with a retired patrol officer (kiap?), many years ago.
He was involved in helping to do the registrations for the first ever election. It was in Kukakuka country, I seem to recall. Anyway, an orderly queue had been formed and he was up the front where the regos were being done when there was a bit of a kerfuffle half-way down the queue. The queue steadied itself as the patrol officer went over to check out the problem.
This turned out to be someone lying dead on the ground with skull crushed.
‘What happened?’ wondered the patrol officer aloud.
‘He tried to push in.’
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Boerwar,
Elections in PNG are life and death. In my hubby’s province more than 12 people died over politics in the lead up to the elections. One was my hubby’s cousin.
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 2:26 pm
@rummel/3206
This is coming from News Murdoch?
Sorry buts thats not proof or anything.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 2:29 pm
SK
I hadn’t realized that it was still a deadly business. I fear for PNG.
I saw part of a documentary on the Baliem Valley (the other side of the line, I know) and was absolutely appalled by what I saw – the participants were walking along the valley of the Balieum River with huge mountains rising on either side.
They were almost totally denuded. No more slash and burn because there is nothing left to slash.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Member for Patterson gets a red card.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Bob Baldwin booted.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 2:31 pm
BW
Snap!
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 2:32 pm
gauss
(second greatest mathematician ever after Euler IMHO)
Brown, the new acting head of the HSU, is now contradicting Thomson’s statements. Brown seems like a straight shooter.
by Diogenes on May 23, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Boerwar,
Make no mistake money drives the election and votes are paid for in pigs, promises and pwning fellow candidates. There are many individuals who are quite happy to kill first and compensate later in order to be elected.
by Space Kidette on May 23, 2012 at 2:33 pm
I think the spelling should be: ‘Baliem River’.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:33 pm
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Ugh. I wish pollies would say “immune to”, not “immune from”.
by triton on May 23, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Dio
The list of people, both inside and outside the HSU, who have different recollections or different views from Mr Thomson is extensive.
What I find perplexing is why Mr Thomson would name people in parliament as, for example, being ‘supportive’, when subsequently and upon being asked, they say they are not supportive.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Space Kidette 3002
I think you will be pretty close to the mark on that prediction/
by poroti on May 23, 2012 at 2:36 pm
trition
Clearly, they are not immune from saying that something is immune from something.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:36 pm
SK
How depressment.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Dio
I recall reading something about his being a trouble maker at school because he was too smart for his teacher’s liking.
by triton on May 23, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Funny how Wayne Swan can’t bring himself to mention that a certain Kevin Rudd deserves most of the credit for Australia’s response to the GFC
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Oops: troublemaker, given that I’m in pedantic mode.
by triton on May 23, 2012 at 2:41 pm
TLM
What is even funnier is that the whole of the Coalition cannot bring itself to admit that the Labor Government got the response to the GFC right and that the Coalition response would have resulted in tens of thousands of job losses and a recession.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:41 pm
@TLM/3270
But you have to hand it to Labor for actually saving the GFC though
Stop picking the sides of the fence.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Are you sure? Care to support that statement? Bet you can’t. It was a joint effort Rudd/Swan and Gillard and the nation should be grateful to all three of them for saving our bacon.
by Tom Hawkins on May 23, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Im curiosu about one aspect of the Thomson saga: since any sexworker could be expected to earn at least a quarter of a million from a scoop “I did Thommo with HSU dues”, if not half a mill…
… how come none have?
by lefty e on May 23, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Sure Labor deserves the credit, but it’s disingenuous for Gillard & Swan to try & pretend that Kevin Rudd wasn’t involved in the decisions made in 2008.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Itep @ 3239
And let us not forget PNG.
Presumably BG prefers his politicians to have no fixed principles.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Evidence that they are trying to pretend that Rudd wasn’t involved?
by Tom Hawkins on May 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Actually I prefer my politicians to stick to their guns when the party vacates the arena.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Government is a team effort and the response to the GFC was an outstanding collaboration between the Government, Public Servants and the Business community
The PM has praised Rudd on several occasions for his contribution.
by mexicanbeemer on May 23, 2012 at 2:47 pm
TLM
So, on the big picture, Labor got it right and the Coalition got it wrong.
On the little picture the Coalition supporters are content to rat around looking for trifles, bagatelles and frou frous.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Mr Abbott hefting the shit bucket with sociopathic zest.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:49 pm
If Abbott gets nuked – no more Thomson questions.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 2:51 pm
@TLM/3276
It was Labor who installed Rudd, and Labor gained power in 2007 because they sick of Howard.
Oh did I mention back then that it was Also the media backing Rudd? Same with Gillard rising up with behind Rudd?
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Labor running the protection racket on Thomson……and he’s no longer good enough to sit in their partyroom.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 23, 2012 at 2:51 pm
triton
Gauss was famous for a trick he performed at school. He was asked to add all the numbers from 1 to 100. He gave the correct answer 5050 after three seconds. Everyone was amazed. All he actually did was add 0+100=100 and worked out the series happens 50 times with 50 as a left over.
by Diogenes on May 23, 2012 at 2:51 pm
piss of Evan
by Tom Hawkins on May 23, 2012 at 2:52 pm
bluegreen @ 3279
You may be able to point to an occasional sell-out on an individual policy, but the bulk of policies and the underlying philosophies have been relatively stable. And I am sure you are well aware of that.
by bemused on May 23, 2012 at 2:53 pm
BW
I can’t work it out either. I don’t know what the hell his lawyers are doing.
by Diogenes on May 23, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Why would Abbott get nuked?
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Why would Abbott get nuked?
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 2:53 pm
I was wondering the same thing although I’m not able to follow QT ATM
by Tom Hawkins on May 23, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Re Thomson case and the LOTO
__________
It seems to me that the Opposition has suceeded very cleverly in that the Thomson affair has totally closed down debate in the media on the Budget et al….and wiped out any hopes of a govt. rebound from the Budget…a fairly well thought out strategy from the Opp. and one that has paid off with no bounce in the polls of any note
I guess that they will use some similar tactic when the Carbon Tax benefits flow in early July ..thus negating any Govt hopes there too
by deblonay on May 23, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Dio
At least Harper Lee can’t contradict him.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:54 pm
“protection racket”.
Grub.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 2:55 pm
So we automatically believe Thomson’s detractors?
by Gary on May 23, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Slipper would have ruled this SSO out of order as it is all about the Privilege Committee.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Ms Mirabella gets a yellow.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 2:56 pm
The Dept Speaker has ruled that questions cannot be asked about proceedings before the privileges committee. Abbott cannot make the SSO without refer to the referred questions.
New territory.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 2:56 pm