Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Do not worry about answering. They just used the phrase on 702 she is survived by her son Jacob. etc. So she has dies.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 4:16 pm
The Governments tactic of gagging the SSOs is preventing the Opp getting a coherent narrative operating and also preventing their disruptive tactics continuing unchallenged.
The Libs are like Wile E Coyote in all those Looney Tune cartoons. Doesn’t matter what they do, the anvils going to clunk them on the head and the earth will bury them.
Meanwhile, Roadrunner Gillard speeds off in to a carefree future.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 4:16 pm
US polls:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/22/obama-attacks-romney-record-politics-live
Grim? Six months?! Luxury. What about 13 months?
by Laocoon on May 23, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Abbott had obviously prepared all his talking points with Peta, and when he was asked to confine himself to the motion, he couldn’t get off the tramline he’d set. Not a very versatile thinker/debater?
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Laocoon
As most Americans cannot be bothered to vote what is more important is if your supporters in the opinion polls can be bothered to turn up. On that account Obama is way ahead. One of the polling mobs showed that although close in total Obama’s supporters were way more enthusiastic about voting for him. Especially in the so called swing states.
by poroti on May 23, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Dio three possibilities:
1. He is innocent.
2. He has convinced himself these things are true because his mind won’t accept the alternative.
3. He is saying the first thing that comes into his head that sounds plausible to him without thinking it through.
by davidwh on May 23, 2012 at 4:27 pm
poroti
Thanks for that insight; quite a different slant on it
by Laocoon on May 23, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Abbott emailed his press release to journos 15 minutes before he read it out. Dangerous stuff Tony, things are fluid at the moment.
by ruawake on May 23, 2012 at 4:29 pm
davidwh
Or, some of the stuff is true so that Thomson is finding it hard to prove the rest is indeed a game to “get” him.
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 4:30 pm
by Dee on May 23, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Interesting that one of the journos on Agenda (Shaun Wright is it?) just said that the Libs stuffed up their timing and that is the reason why Abbott to call a rare conference in the Parliamentary courtyard. That says why he gets away with easy pressers when he’s out and about. He’s dead scared of questionning by the more knowledgeable journos.
Denis Atkins said that he thinks people are sick of the Thomson thing and the Libs need to move on.
by BH on May 23, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Differet case same journo crap
The Hoopla@TheHoopla
Craig Thomson: @madwixxy draws some similarities between his situation & Lindy Chamberlain’s. http://bit.ly/Ky8Vzt
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 4:36 pm
lizzie
Some of it may be true, (I don’t imagine anyone in that area of the HSU is a lillywhite innocent), but may have been beefed up into an hanging offence.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 23, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Facebook management may be in trouble.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2148414/Wall-Street-watchdog-set-investigate-Facebook-IPO-claims-Morgan-Stanley-failed-alert-investors-lower-revenue-forecast.html
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Mail just arrived.
We just got taken by another building company going into Administration owing us retentions.
by Compact Crank on May 23, 2012 at 4:39 pm
lizzie
A good point, IMHO. There is quite a bit of evidence that in changing circumstances, Mr Abbott can dance like an elephant and sting like a butterfly.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Has Michael Lawler been asked to step aside whilst this is investigated?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/industrial-relations/fair-work-australia-vice-president-drawn-into-hsu-row/story-fn59noo3-1226263184928
by hairy nose on May 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Well, maybe that Mr Abbott can dance like a bull in china shop.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
It was Shane Wright on Agenda and he just gave a big plug to the OECD report and said wtte everyone should invest in the best country in the world and those in Canberra only see the ‘sh..tty’ stuff but out in the big wide land things are not too bad.
A sane journalist – you little ripper! Denis Atkins of the Courier Mail was very fair as well.
by BH on May 23, 2012 at 4:40 pm
@3455 – prisons are full of innocent people wrongly accussed and fitted up – just ask them. Even those who have pleaded guilty only did it because they were forced to.
by Compact Crank on May 23, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Puff
That’s sorta what I meant. I do believe that Thomson was threatened when he tried to make the members (executives?) accountable. Just hope that the “investigators” (all of them) understand how easy it is, when according to Thomson, there were still failures in the accounts systems.
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Just heard on #Slynews that Dunns & Bradstreet says Australia is the safest place to invest in the World – MOAR to come – What a BISON
by The Finnigans on May 23, 2012 at 4:43 pm
CC
Have you been stocking up on the popcorn?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 4:43 pm
victoria
Heard any news about the plane at Tulla?
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm
CC
Damned right.
The whole sorry saga of the number of people who have been jailed for decades after being fitted up but then proven innocent by way of DNA analysis is a case in point.
Well, said.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Laocoon
I can’t find the article but these couple of links give an indication re the motivation levels of each candidate’s supporters.
http://www.thenorthstarnews.com/Story/Poll-Finds-Democrats-Happier-With-Obama-on-the-Ticket-Than-GOP-Is-With-Romney
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/11/hating-mitt-romney-democratic-voters
by poroti on May 23, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Lizzie
Only that there some type of bomb threat
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 4:46 pm
victoria
Thanks. Will wait for 5pm news.
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 4:49 pm
cf Flight to Mauritious:
http://www.news.com.au/national/emergency-crews-race-to-melbourne-airport-in-response-to-possible-emegency/story-e6frfkvr-1226364750766
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 4:49 pm
The Obama Effect.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-president-obamas-announcement-opposition-to-gay-marriage-hits-record-low/2012/05/22/gIQAlAYRjU_story.html?hpid=z3
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Thanks Boerwar
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm
“Mail just arrived.
We just got taken by another building company going into Administration owing us retentions”
Bummer. I blame, in order, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, the Red Haired Bitch and a “this catastrophically bad government”. Sounds like a job for Super Hadley. What time does the whinge line open?
by Roy Orbison on May 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Boerwar
Thanks. ABC strangely silenet. Perhaps they didn’t know!!
by lizzie on May 23, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Compact Crank, and I bet their directors are Liberal supporters like you.
by sammut fulvio on May 23, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Yes, I do believe him………..but have doubts about her!
I believed him, thought what he said was true.
His story’s unchanged. He’s said nothing new.
But the lady protests so oft, methinks,
Increasingly the air around her stinks.
Her stories change and are embellished
In many interviews, each one relished
By her audience, the peoples’ jury!
So why is he the focus of her fury?
What did he do to deserve this hell,
The unhappy member for Dobell,
When her entitlements have swollen
To far outweigh the sum she claims he’s stolen?
Isn’t it time we really got to know her,
This ‘heroine’, this ‘whistleblower’?
Who are her friends, lovers, connections?
Why for her so much media protection?
Why do editors find it so very hard
To spot an extra ‘p’ on a phony credit card?
If investigative journos checked out his alibis
Couldn’t they prove which of them is telling lies?
http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/
by PatriciaWA on May 23, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Mr Sheridan just backing Mr Carr in relation to Indonesian relations.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 4:53 pm
In so doing Mr Sheridan cuts the ground from under the feet of the redoubtable Ms Bishop who has had a go at Mr Carr on the basis that he may have secretly cut a deal, soft on juvenile people smugglers, in return for favourable treatment of Ms Corby.
But then Mr Sheridan has previously opined that Ms Bishop was the worst-ever Opposition Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs.
Let’s face it, the only person who likes to kiss Ms Bishop (in public) is Mr Rudd.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 4:56 pm
PatriciaWA
Wonderful. Really enjoyed it!
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Re: gags/guillotines and the use of them
Without recourse to gags, the ability to put limits on time or number of speeches etc, any deliberative body has an inherent filibuster.
Some people argue that the filibuster is a legitimate tactic in the operation of a parliament, but in any real sense a filibuster is undemocratic glue in the gears of democracy.
A parliament with unbreakable filibusters can quickly become unworkable because it can become hostage to any single member that wants to screw up the proper functioning of that parliament.
Perhaps in golden-hued more genteel days of yore when parliamentarians were all well behaved we could get by with allowing unfettered debate. In reality it is not workable, and wherever and however you draw the line someone is going to complain that you are “supressing debate” or being “undemocratic” which is just tosh.
by Jackol on May 23, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Boerwar
Did you see Rudd and Bishop’s love in the other day?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 4:58 pm
@3472 -Victoria – I’m more a Fantails or Jaffas sort of guy.
by Compact Crank on May 23, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Boerwar bemused will be jealous
by davidwh on May 23, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Thanks poroti:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/11/hating-mitt-romney-democratic-voters
Substituting Abbott for Romney etc, I wonder if there is an organising election principle, given Abbott’s enormous disapproval rating
by Laocoon on May 23, 2012 at 4:59 pm
GG 3451
quite amazing how abbott is looking uglier and older by the day and gillard absolutely radiant with good health
by Lyne Lady on May 23, 2012 at 5:00 pm
CC
Well stock up your jaffas and fantails. Watch Pyne and Abbott implode. It will be fun
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Vic
re love-in – this has been apparent for a long time – really worrying but then rudd is a worry – not surprising majority of caucus rejected him.
by Lyne Lady on May 23, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Compact Crank
What State are you in? Reason I ask is Qld has the Subcontractors Charges Act which allows subbies to place a charge over money payable by the Owner to the Contractor in cases like this where the builder goes bust. NSW may have an equivalent.
by Lynchpin on May 23, 2012 at 5:02 pm
The Opposition has had a golden run on the SSO thanks to the idealism of Mr Oakshott et al. On around 50 occaisions, this has given Mr Abbott a free kick to kick the Government, get his daily 15 seconds into an obliging MSM, and make Parliament seem like it is a shambles.
The fact is that this week Mr Albanese has trashed the best efforts of Mr Pyne and Mr Abbott to set up a de facto kangaroo court.
However, it is clear from the vote counts on the de facto gag motions adopted by Mr Albanese, are not supported by the cross benches.
IMHO, and ergo, the cross benches are really in a bit of a state of confusion here. On the one hand they refuse to support a censure motion but on the other they keep voting for Mr Abbott doing judge and jury on Mr Thomson.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Caller to Leon Delany who is relieving John Laws on 2sm ( wish it was permanent as he is very fair maybe even a Labor supporter) talking about letter to dailyterror in which author states his refusal to donate any money to charities which help people because of the Carbon Tax. Reasoning is that persons who use such services are Labor voters. Australia… the land of the big whinge.
by PoK on May 23, 2012 at 5:03 pm
LL
Yes indeed
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 5:03 pm