Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Well, well, no doubt they and the OO have already declared Mirrabella guilty of unethical and immoral behaviour before her day in Court is over.
by BH on May 23, 2012 at 9:01 pm
BH,
More dear little piggie-wiggies flapping past my window as I type
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Shows – And then there was his tea-cup throwing episodes and his circling in his office to see what people were writing down.
Brilliant and with all his flaws – not sometimes practical (Kev-07 in contrast is not going to be Gareth or Hulun Clarke at the UN despite his pretentions …).
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 9:04 pm
I kin see the piggie-wiggies becoz they have their hedlights on.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Victoria
Sophie certainly looks younger now than she did in 2007.
by Dee on May 23, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Egypt voting as we speak. The Arab Spring has had a real result.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:07 pm
HHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHH SCRINGLER IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!
by ShowsOn on May 23, 2012 at 9:07 pm
The cynic in me wonders whether Sophie isn’t going to be preselected in Indi.
Has she already been confirmed for next year’s election?
by confessions on May 23, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Dee
She is just as simpatico too!
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Where is Gus when you need him?
C’mon Gus, come back to the fold, we need you…
by Mod Lib on May 23, 2012 at 9:08 pm
There’s a good argument that the government should make Gareth the next G.G. just to piss the coalition off.
by ShowsOn on May 23, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Bianca @BiancaSteman
Holy Hell Senator Fierravanti-Wells is a vicious raving looney badgering & harasses & screams over the top of witnesses in senate #estimates
by Lyne Lady on May 23, 2012 at 9:09 pm
confessions
Dont know who dredged up that old article re Mirabella, but it is interesting
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Mr O’Farrell has said that it is ‘Nonsene to have state of origin…’
Couldn’t agree with hm more…
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Scringler – 3 dogs and a big fire and all that.
Did Tones and a whole lot of cameras turn up the next morning to say you would have a ‘Julia’ carbon meter installed to tax you?
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 9:11 pm
LL
Isn’t that the definition of a harpy?
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:11 pm
My son wants to know why the Rugby players just run straight at the opposition and don’t try to avoid being tackled.
by Diogenes on May 23, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Mr Evans is on some sort of well-peace gig…
But he was dangerous to be around when the ash trays were flying…
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Dio
After a couple of thousand tackles they don’t know any better.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Malcolm Turnbull as GG would be an interesting proposition.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:13 pm
diog.
because if you side ways the defence moves forward and tackles and you make no ground. defensive lines are tight and organised. running straight ahead gains metres.
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:15 pm
i meant run side ways.. too many tackles for me clearly.
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Shows – GE could come up with a seemingly passable constitutional arguement to make him dictator if he was GG!
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 9:15 pm
I still think that Michael Kirby would be great as GG.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 9:15 pm
If it were me with the ball, I would run backwards and into the crowd or out of the arena.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 9:16 pm
CTar1
Ouch!
But you are probably right.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 9:16 pm
How did this go down earlier in the day here, out of interest?
by Mod Lib on May 23, 2012 at 9:17 pm
midddleman,
Why don’t they handball?
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:17 pm
both forms of rugby have a big focus on being dominant at the ruck (thats the tackle zone). fast ball is good ball. stops defensive lines from being reset. the maxim is – go forward before you go wide.
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:17 pm
And smart as a fence post as well.
by CTar1 on May 23, 2012 at 9:18 pm
3769
Appointing a member of the current Coalition, particularly a member of Shadow Cabinet, would seem to be of Kerr appointment level danger. Interesting but dangerous.
by Tom the first and best on May 23, 2012 at 9:18 pm
GG – they do in the showers after the game.
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Boerwar,
Of course you would. You are a professional thief.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:18 pm
I believe he is V.C. of A.N.U.
by ShowsOn on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Why not Shows On for GG. He seems to be well respected in parliament.
by Dan Gulberry on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Im a Carbon outlaw, a real 400% type guy
by rummel on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 pm
3773
I would agree there.
by Tom the first and best on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Think Gareth Gareth whose famous line “Seemed Like A Good Idea At The Time” would be just the GG to tip abbott over the edge.
Not that I think abbott will be PM,too many batons in the knapsack in that scurilious party.
by Schnappi on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 pm
ML
As crap upon which it was not worth commenting. Fortunately even the conservative government in England is committed to doing real stuff about AGW.
It is only the Coalition fools in Australia and the Repugs who don’t get AGW.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 9:19 pm
middleman,
That’s how they get a lather up.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 9:20 pm
The thing about Roy and HG was that their call was always accurate. When the games descended into farce in the mid 2000s they said so. They were the only commentators who asked if the series was worth keeping as Qld kept winning and the standard declined. Repeating phrases like “can play but not at this level” and “are we up to Jersey Flegg standard yet HG?” and “next game a dead rubber Roy, don’t bother coming”. They told the truth as money took over and hype swamped the game alienating supporters.
In fact they predicted the death of Rugby League 20 years ago saying that as advertising money and the demands of marketing to kiddies and women collided with the empty vessels of a footballers brain, something had to give. The very essence of football would die as the game expanded and money would cause the League to eat itself.
Karl Marx was right!
I don’t think it is too long a bow to draw when I say a similar process has taken place in politics over the years. Declining standards and the need to appeal to a target market to the exclusion of mainstay supporters. Throw in media changes, empty hours to fill with shite, etc etc. I am getting depressed now.
by Phil Vee on May 23, 2012 at 9:20 pm
ML
News Corp attacking public broadcasting how unsurprisement.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:21 pm
GG
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Boerwar:
Just as an acadmic question, what is your view about whether the ABC should present both sides of the carbon debate.
Should they report on the views of those who don’t believe that human activity has a measurable effect on the climate?
by Mod Lib on May 23, 2012 at 9:21 pm
victoria:
I wondered when the allegations and civil case against her first emerged. Since then there seems to have been some strategically placed articles which appear to be suggesting serious character flaws about her.
Usually a sign of faceless powerbrokers moving against you. As you say, it’s interesting.
by confessions on May 23, 2012 at 9:22 pm
I have never understood that either
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 9:22 pm
ML
The ABC should give a balance view. This is different than giving both sides equal airtime.
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 9:23 pm
nothing like the insularity of the AFL states….
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:24 pm
btw i’m not a “leaguie”.
by middle man on May 23, 2012 at 9:25 pm
ML
Which both sides? There is no credible body of scientific opinion which offers a coherent alternative. There are some cherry picking spoilers, but that is another thing entirely. And, there are charlatans aplenty, after all there is a buck to be made.
So, do you mean the scientific side and the creationist side? Or the scientific side and the opinion-as-fact side? Or the scientific side and the carbon money side?
Your question does not make sense to me.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 9:25 pm