Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@3888 – flood insurance issue – don’t build on flood plains!!!! Or build Levees or bloody big stilts.
by Compact Crank on May 23, 2012 at 10:23 pm
those with better memories than mine can probably remember more about the Love Boat scandal, where the Daily TelaLie splattered front page stories of a bonking parties on a Sydney harbour boat involving politicians and celebrities – I think Tom Domican and various underworld figures were running it.
Some of the alleged bonkers were Graham Richardson, Andrew Peacock and Don Lane. This made for great headlines (a bit like the Thomson ones of today)
When it started to fade through lack of “evidence”, the Daily TelaLie found the fabulously named Virginia Perger. an alleged prositute who remembered bonking said politicians – sadly, her story did not stand up under cross examination, but she pocketed more than her normal income to “come forward” for Murdoch’s rag.
I’m getting that feeling of DejaVu all over again
by sprocket_ on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 pm
My idea for a government ad on the Carbon Tax:
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Innocent until proven guilty Shellbell. Stewart really was set up and is now trying to get substantial damages from News.
by Oakeshott Country on May 23, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Now we know how bankrupt journalism has become. This counts as breaking news.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/a-little-trouble-in-big-chinatown-challenge-20120523-1z5kg.html
by guytaur on May 23, 2012 at 10:25 pm
CC
What would the costs of adaption be? Mr Minchin recently claimed that Mr Lomberg has carried out a comprehensive cost/benefit analysis of this.
But I didn’t see the bark beetles in there anywhere. And they are just the start.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Pearger was Domican’s GF – that these people had influence in the NSW ALP Right was not only a great worry but a foretaste of things to come.
by Oakeshott Country on May 23, 2012 at 10:26 pm
ajm,
They certainly failed the presumpttion of competence tonight.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Boerwar
If WA seccedes then the AFL finals would become the World Series.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Boerwar,
There are some occasions when too much Schadenfreude is never enough
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 10:27 pm
CC
Haha. Or don’t build where more extreme flood events will arise as a result of… you know what. Now, where would that be?
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:27 pm
OC
Odd if he is going News. He just did a big puff interview with their league reporter.
Qld players dont have the indiscipline NSW do hence their performance.
by shellbell on May 23, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Boerwar
the main cost of adaptation is a shitter life.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 10:28 pm
This state of origin series is so crap.
Like, I am so sick of barracking for a winning side.
They should have Queensland versus the Rest of the World so that we can have a genuine feeling of Queensland Uber Alles.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:29 pm
bg
Well, that would be for the survivors…
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Boerwar,
Staring CanDoo as … ?
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 pm
BB,
You are a marvel.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 pm
george brandis
I am off to sleep.
by bluegreen on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 pm
bg
There is no way the eastern states would play football with foreigners other than the Irish.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Just looked up the archives he got an apology and apparently a big cheque – that would heal a lot of hurt.
by Oakeshott Country on May 23, 2012 at 10:32 pm
BW
Oooh, catty
.
by Dan Gulberry on May 23, 2012 at 10:32 pm
bg,
You are probably right.
Before PB I never knew you existed.
by Greensborough Growler on May 23, 2012 at 10:32 pm
fiona
I imagine that OH enjoyed your schadenfreude as much as you did.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Well, busy day tomorrow, being retired. Must to bed. Good night all.
by Boerwar on May 23, 2012 at 10:34 pm
No offence, but take your misery gutsing with you mate.
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 10:35 pm
BB
That ad would never work. Who’s going to believe in a bogan talking in decimal places.
by Dan Gulberry on May 23, 2012 at 10:36 pm
BW:
Oddly enough, he didn’t. But he hates being wrong even more than I do!
Goodnight.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 10:36 pm
(a) You’d be surprised.
(b) It’s a draft.
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 10:37 pm
iona – luv that story and my OH read it and laughed. Said he narrowly missed the same tragedy a couple of weeks ago. I wondered how because everything within sight gets ‘snipped’.
He chopped a small camphor laurel down today. Yes, with his beloved chain saw, and when I went out to check I found OH and our lovely old brindle staffie absolutely covered in creamy flakes of camphor laurel trunk. The dog was enjoying it as much as OH was. Men!
by BH on May 23, 2012 at 10:37 pm
BB,
Have you attached a copyright thinggy to your outline? If not, you should at once. It’s brilliant.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 10:37 pm
@BW/3913
While I like Origin and Rugby League, nothing beats V8 racing.
by zoidlord on May 23, 2012 at 10:38 pm
victoria,
I have no evidence, just observation. Over the years, one somehow recognizes the signs of illness.
If Tony Abbott has some sort of affliction that disturbs his capacity to carry out his role, this should be explained to the House. As I said, I wish no ill health on anyone – friend or foe.
by Scringler on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 pm
There’s also be an ad for the North Shore, the Bush, Pensioners etc.
I’d also confront the problem head on by starting one out with…
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Sorry, I’ve been out – noticed a few posts asking for my perspective & take it it’s something to do with Mirabella but haven’t gone far enough back to work out what.
Firstly, nothing that has been said about the Colin Howard affair was any surprise to anyone who knows her – no one said “but she would never do/say that!!”
Secondly, that she accepted (undisclosed) dontations from the tobacco companies – so furtive that even the Indi Liberal Treasurer knew nothing about them – months before she actively lobbied for growers to accept the package offered to them is common knoweldge.
The growers were not told what the terms of the buyout were until they arrived at the meeting to vote. Many growers were Italian speakers, unable at the best of times to understand complex legal documents in English. They were given no time to consult with anyone as to the terms of the buyout, but were assured – by Mirabella, and others – that if they voted to close the industry, they’d be looked after.
She spent the weeks before the vote making it clear which side she was on, basically saying that the only people who would vote against the package were criminals.
As for her husband receiving a job on the Jazz Festival (ironically, paid for by the Brumby government as part of the bushfire relief package), yes, he got it, and yes, the committee which appointed him included one of Sophie’s staffers.
by zoomster on May 23, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Compact Crank@3883,
Prove it.
As opposed to simply asserting it about Craig Thomson.
There was a discussion here earlier on tonight about Facts vs Opinion. As it stands, you have asserted an opinion, based on no facts at all.
And the FWA Report, if you are intending to rely on that as your bulwark, is yet to be tested in a Court of Law. Which it may never be, as you have correctly stated, if it’s claims wrt Craig Thomson are beyond the Statute of Limitations.
Which gets me back to my original point. You can’t claim any of it as fact about Craig Thomson.
Anyway, what you have stated, that Craig Thomson has ‘taken down an organisation for half a mill plus’, is just the sort of Hadleyesque allegation that marks you out as a fully-fledged member of the Ignoranti. Heavy on the allegation, fairy floss light on the evidence.
I mean, let’s just look at someone whose opinions you probably respect, A Current Affair. They’re saying they have found another credit card receipt. Whether it’s another from the Health Services Union credit card receipt-generating service or not, I don’t know. However, it speaks volumes to me that if FWA couldn’t track it down after 4 years of investigation, what does that say in general about the worth of the FWA conclusions?
Still, the FWA Report is enough for the Tony Abbott Cheer Squad to hang their hat on. That is, the conveniently ignorant, such as yourself. So that you can come here and make the sort of bald statement, based on absolutely no concrete facts at all, such as the one highlighted above.
I just wonder with your contributions, who it is you think you’re impressing? We here are not that ignorant or uninformed to be taken in by that sort of contribution.
Still, I don’t kid myself that any sort of reality check will make you stop making those sorts of contributions. It’s your Right to Free Speech after all.
by C@tmomma on May 23, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Night boerwar
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:40 pm
If the ad is aimed at bogans, anything not in multiples of six (ie six pack, slab, etc.) will be lost on them.
The snag idea would probably work though.
by Dan Gulberry on May 23, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Sent a copy to Combet’s office. I know: delusions of grandeur, but playing Abbott’s game, being constantly on the defensive, IS NOT WORKING.
by Bushfire Bill on May 23, 2012 at 10:41 pm
zoomster
Ms Sophie is a real piece of work!
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 pm
BH
First, I’m delighted that both of you were entertained.
Second, down south the camphor laurel is not deemed a pest, but rather a tree to be nurtured. In the 12 year drought we thought that we had lost our 100 year old tree – but since the rains have come it’s been great to see neophytes sprouting from the larger branches and the trunk.
Let’s just accept that what is a pest in some places is not in others – I’m so delighted to see this tree rejuvenate. Meanwhile, I’m cursing those Angles who wished oxalis upon us because it was a rare rockery plant in the Mother Country.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 pm
I think you’re only a winner, BB, but won’t charred small goods raise more questions than it answers? How much “tax” on the gas? Are you “taxed” more for well done than medium rare? etc.
Revisiting the scene:
(BOGAN AT BARBEQUE)
Well here’s some good news. The Carbon Tax is expected to only add about point-7 of one percent to your cost of living. That’s about (CLOSE UP OF A TINNY; HE CRACKS IT OPEN, WITH A SLIGHT SPRAY) that much of your beer. Cheers!
by Jaeger on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Scringler
What type of health issue do you suspect?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Well you could always read my book on the costs of climate change adaptation for South East Asia.
http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Climate_change_and_economic_development.html?id=JjQoAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y
*cough* *plug* *cough*
by deflationite on May 23, 2012 at 10:44 pm
fiona
are you breeding cane toads too???
by swamprat on May 23, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Is anyone taking this ACA thing seriously?
by Lynchpin on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Dan – you beat me to it.
by Jaeger on May 23, 2012 at 10:46 pm
deflationite
Are you the author?
by victoria on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Doesn’t need any changes. Send it off to Greg Combet.
by BH on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Serious question!, has Abbott’s feined anger and negativity become a real angst and therefore beginning to consume him?
by Augustus on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Swamprat:
I’ve tried reely reely hard, but they seem to be frost-averse.
by fiona on May 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm