Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
AUST is one of the world’s safest trade and foreign investment havens – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/australia-flying-high-for-safe-investments/story-e6frg8zx-1226365009518 – What about our sovereign risks? – A BISON
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:00 am
More facile garbage from Jacqueline Maley:
It’s hard to imagine any journalist writing this stuff about a male PM who’d been in the US for a NATO meeting. But because she’s a woman, we’re expected to imagine that all the PM has been doing overseas is flirting with men.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/lady-of-the-house-returns-to-check-on-what-the-men-are-actually-doing-20120523-1z5lz.html#ixzz1vjTw4nbT
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:00 am
Janice, can i assume you dont like Tony Abbott then?
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:01 am
confessions
I have stopped reading anything from Maley, Grattan, Hartcher, or Carney.
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:02 am
poroti:
I just knew a Bludger would have the answer!
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:02 am
confessions
I just had a look at the Maley article. What vacuous puke!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 8:03 am
The Finns
The only moar we have had is Abbott and Pyne yapping their heads off. I am very disappointed
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:03 am
victoria:
Good idea. It’s not as if I’d miss anything if I gave up the msm altogether.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:04 am
Good morning.
The latest legal controversy in the States
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/23/hate-crime-harlan-county_n_1534421.html
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:04 am
confessions
We are getting served up with the same crap day in day out
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:05 am
Rudd should never have appointed Costello as FF Chair. You put an HR Nicholls Society Liberal in charge of things, and this is what happens: taxpayer pork for your big business mates.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/future-funds-tobacco-stake-lights-up-a-storm-20120523-1z5l8.html#ixzz1vjVqgDG5
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:07 am
That might be an effective slogan in a campaign to sell the mining tax and shame the Abbott and his fellow sycophants.
When I read this morning that in just 3 minutes the personal wealth of Gina R increased by the amount I earn in a year I was sickened.
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 8:10 am
BK:
I do hope she hasn’t decided to emulate Annabel Crabb.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:10 am
AM reporting that the privileges committee is turning up the heat on the Australian Electoral Commission.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:15 am
I count four articles in today’s online SMH (5 if you count the column by the Hammock Dweller) about QT yesterday. And not one of them is in the least bit informative. All written in a chirpy, vacuous tone about personalities and fluff, with no actual explanations of the procedural matters which ensued, arguably of more value to readers than what we’ve actually been provided with.
And these are journalists who complain about ruckus in the House and the behaviour of our MPs. If these people can’t be bothered to report politics seriously, and only want to focus on the personalities and trivial matters, they have no business complaining about misbehaving politicians.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:16 am
How so guytaur?
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 8:17 am
Therese Rein now on the BRW Rich List.
Also:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/drift-to-rudd-as-mps-waver-20120523-1z5tv.html
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 24, 2012 at 8:17 am
AM finished reporting on Thomson. All of two minutes
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:17 am
Tom
The Abetz quote about misleading and F-Wells talking over the AEC Commissioner giving evidence.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:18 am
What a cracking clip about Abbott..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdZeGYCOkXM&sns=em
by Burgey on May 24, 2012 at 8:19 am
I bet you typed that with just one hand on the keyboard.
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 8:20 am
guytaur, are you talking about Estimates rather than the Privileges Committee?
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 8:20 am
Yes, the beginning of the end for Labor can be traced back to June 24, 2010.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 24, 2012 at 8:21 am
Tom Hawkins: very easy to be snide about it, but the woman should be admired for building up an international job placement business from scratch.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 24, 2012 at 8:22 am
The UK’s the Met is in the news for all the wrong reasons.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/may/23/three-arrested-met-police-corruption
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:22 am
Rubbish. The Senate composition wouldn’t change with one by-election.
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 8:23 am
itep
I think that yes I am. However that is how AM reported. They talked of the privileges committee turning up the heat on the AEC then did the estimates footage. I missed the link or AM made a mistake.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:24 am
I join @GMegalogenis on “The war on whingeing” – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_war_on_whingeing/ – I fight the war with my BISONs – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/ what do u do?
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:25 am
Morning All
I’ll leave the ACA stuff alone – wouldn’t watch it if you paid me, although for $60k….
Anyways – I think more pressure has to go onto Michael Lawler. My question, is FWA covered by the Public Service Code of Conduct??
If so this is interesting reading
http://www.apsc.gov.au/aps-employment-policy-and-advice/aps-values-and-code-of-conduct/aps-values-and-code-of-conduct-in-practice/conflict-of-interest
Especially when read in conjunction with the transcript from 7.30
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3507772.htm
CHRIS UHLMANN: Is there a conflict of interest here because your partner Michael Lawler is the vice President of Fair Work Australia?
KATHY JACKSON: No, not at all and I reject that claim totally. And Craig Thomson’s allegations are totally wicked against him. Michael Lawler is the Vice-President of Fair Work Australia, formerly the Australian Industrial Relations Commission.
As Craig Thomson knows – well knows, the regulator arm of Fair Work Australia has nothing to do with the tribunal and for him to try to link him in to that is totally wicked.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Are you concerned at all about perceptions of conflict of interest?
KATHY JACKSON: That’s what he’s trying to do. Craig Thomson is obviously trying to smear everybody to get himself out of the hole that he has dug himself into. My advice to Craig Thomson is to you know the more he says the worse he looks.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Has Michael Lawler ever been involved with you in any of the strategy meetings with the HSU about any of the actions that you have got going?
KATHY JACKSON: Well obviously as my partner I talk to Michael about what I’m doing and as my partner I talk to him about not just HSU issues but other issues as well.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Is it that appropriate?
KATHY JACKSON: I think it’s very appropriate as my partner that I ask him advice and assistance. But he is not running the case for the HSU. I tell him what I’m doing, not the other way around.
Is it really appropriate that Michael Lawler was providing “advice and assistance” to someone that was being investigated by the agency he works for???
Questions need to be asked imo
by womble on May 24, 2012 at 8:26 am
itep
The good thing is the transcript of AM becomes available so it is easy to check a bit later. I just think it is more sloppy journalism until proven otherwise.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:26 am
The next lot of polls should be interesting – a Morgan one tomorrow, and a Newspoll early next week?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 24, 2012 at 8:26 am
womble
Agreed. But why is Lawler on leave now?
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:29 am
TLM
Yes the public is becoming inoculated to all the “scandals” the Opposition is running. To the point even the media is finding it a hard slog to justify front page coverage. So it will be interesting to see if the trend of two polls continues with more going to Labor in those two polls.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:29 am
Mega’s “The war on whingeing”:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_war_on_whingeing/
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:29 am
womble, I think what Jackson means is that it’s only natural to talk to your partner about major issues affecting you at work. It’s true though that Lawler should not have been involved in any way with the FWA investigation of the HSU – but there is no credible suggestion that he has been.
I’m sure when FWA appears before estimates this could easily be dealt with by a line of questioning establishing the extent of any involvement Lawler had with the investigation – but I doubt there was any. In the report Thomson even acknowledges that he understood Lawler had no involvement.
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 8:30 am
Finns
Mega better be careful. He is going against HMV Murdoch’s regime change plans.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:31 am
Thomson need not worry about the escort. It would be a waste of money trying to stop foot in door journalism via an injunction and it would probbaly fail.
ACA is as low as you can go since Willesee days and I would make the point that this is where his opponents feel the need to tread.
His problem is the HSU bookkeeper Ms Ord (?) who Oakes referred to as telling the FWA about multiple failures to account for expenses including cash advances. The Court will always believe the bookkeeper.
by shellbell on May 24, 2012 at 8:31 am
fess
While I take your point, there was a lovely cartoon around the time of ‘Brokeback Mountain’, with Howard and Bush dressed as cowboys, atride their horses, looking longingly at each other.
The caption was wtte “I keep telling my wife we’re meeting to talk about uranium….”
Re: the Thommo prostitute thing.
Firstly, the man’s photo has been splashed everywhere. Of course she recognises him (even if she doesn’t actually realise why). Of course her first thought, on seeing a man she recognises and can’t place socially, will be that he must be a client.
Once that idea’s in her head, the rest is easy – “oh, he must be that guy who…”
We’ve all done it; tried to work out where we remember something from, and then match up the circumstance with the most likely scenario, only to find out later that no, it was someone else entirely.
And these memories (studies have shown) are just as ‘real’ as ‘real’ memories, because our brains don’t have any way of distiguishing between memories created by living through an experience and memories created by the process I’ve described above.
Secondly, even if she was totally accurate, we get to the ‘so what’ test.
Thomson isn’t being pilloried for sleeping with a prostitute. If that made an MP unfit for service (cough) there’d be some noticeable gaps on both sides of the House.
For her account to have any real bearing at all, beyond the salacious “Ooooh! He slept with a prostitute!!” she has to KNOW that he paid for her services with union money AND that that money had not been approved for the purpose.
Which I think is very unlikely!
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:32 am
You fail to understand. I have no problem with her. It’s you I was poking fun at. I was suggesting you were a wanker without actually coming out and saying it as bluntly as that.
Anyway, I’ve said it now.
by Tom Hawkins on May 24, 2012 at 8:32 am
Curious Snail may need to stand down while police investigate.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newspaper-referred-to-australian-federal-police-20120523-1z51j.html
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 8:32 am
As have many many people as their company’s share prices show.
Why would anyone pay to read their crap.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FXJ.AX+Basic+Chart&t=5y
by dave on May 24, 2012 at 8:33 am
zoomster
A slight correction. Cartoonists are not Journalists.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:34 am
ltep
I often forget we are in the spot when we can’t have a half-senate election for a while. Thank heavens for small mercies.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 8:34 am
It was Senate estimates. Abetz got the electoral commissioner to take some sting out of the suggestion that the AEC report was a win for Thomson against the FWA.
Connie FW disgraced herself. She should be sent to privileges (if that is possible) for her abusive and overbearing manner.
by shellbell on May 24, 2012 at 8:35 am
I like Hartcher (Farifax version), the NSW Parliament version less so.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 8:35 am
Womble,
That interview of Uhlman/Jackson was very telling IMO. So far, nothing has been made of it but given that Jackson says she asks her partner for advice and assistance and discusses ‘issues’ with him, there is a huge conflict of interest. And, given Lawler is a Lib and a friend of the man who appointed him in the first place, questions should be asked what information Lawler has been passing on to the Opposition to fuel their campaign against Thomson.
I hope Thomson’s legal eagles are taking note and jotting down the pearls of wisdom emanating out of Jackson’s big mouth.
by janice2 on May 24, 2012 at 8:35 am
zoomster:
Cartoons are one thing, but written commentary is quite another.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:36 am
Believe it or not, even Alan Jones said this morning that the ACA prostitute thing was tacky.
Nine would need to have some sort of documentation to back up the lady’s claims against Thomson, otherwise what she says won’t be seen as credible.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 24, 2012 at 8:37 am
If abusive and overbearing were criteria for PC inquiry, then half the Liberal Senators would be sent to it. Even when they were in govt, their behaviour on Estimates committees was shouty, hectoring and generally disgraceful.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:38 am
Barnyard is shedding his crocodile tears on #Slynews for #Thomson just before the lynching
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:38 am