Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
That doesnt stop you from wagging your tail like another painful pavlovian doggy
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:40 am
ltep
a couple of years ago, I did a stint as a lowly fieldhand for the DSE.
I had to sign a confidentiality clause, which meant that I was not even allowed to tell my husband where I was working each day.
My 15 year old son works at the chemist’s two afternoons a week. He is not allowed to talk to me about clients.
There are still things which I am not allowed to discuss with anyone – not even my family – from my time as local councillor, or to do with my present service as a member of a health board.
Yes, we do have a natural desire to talk things over with our partners. But anyone in any position of responsibility – even the minor ones I’ve referred to – knows that it’s not always appropriate to do so.
Anyone working for a union in any capacity would be taught this from Day One, because they deal with people’s confidential material every day. No one is going to complain to their union about their boss if they think it’s going to be tomorrow’s hot gossip.
So Kathy Jackson should have been well and truly aware that discussing union matters with someone who regulates unions was totally inappropriate.
That the interviewer let her get away with it simply demonstrates how little journalists understand about good governance.
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:40 am
Itep – questions definitely need to be asked in estimates about what contact, if any, Lawler had with Nassios during his inquiry. As well as, what “advice and assistance” he provided to Jackson and if any discussion concerning what was occurring at FWA would be deemed to be appropriate.
Also what declarations have been made in regards conflict or interest, real or perceived, by Lawler in relation to the investigation.
Victoria – maybe it’s just his annual holiday
by womble on May 24, 2012 at 8:41 am
fess
actually, I wasn’t trying to contradict you! It’s just that your comment reminded me of the cartoon, which was one I liked.
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:42 am
Unfortunately I don’t think bad manners are a referable matter
However Senator Fierravanti-Wells and some of her colleagues ought be reminded that belligerence isn’t the best way to ensure witnesses are more forthcoming with information. If they want an example of how mostly polite, but dogged persistance can pay off they could look to the behaviour of Senators Ray and Faulkner over the period Labor were in Opposition. Even now Senator Faulkner is taking the fight up to administration of the Department of Parliamentary Services – which is a good thing! It always pays for parliamentary/public servants to be reminded that someone is looking over their shoulders at all times.
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 8:43 am
womble
my understanding – from what I’ve read – is that it’s some kind of extraordinary leave.
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:43 am
Easier to think of it in terms of sitting days. Today, there are 13 sitting days left before 1 July 2012; 12 after today.
Unless Quentin has enough secret scandal in her past to “do a Kerr” (after the decades of personal harassment to which she and her family were subjected by Anti-feminists, DLP/ Right to Life, League of Rights, Joh BP/ WWWW & other RW activists -at least as vicious as what is now directed at Julia Gullard – this is highly unlikely) a government has to be rolled on the Floor of the HoC.
Short of the GG’s intervention (as in 1975), there are only 2 grounds on which a government can be rolled/ forced to resign:
1. Carriage of a motion that the House has no confidence in the government (and “government” it needs to be: if in the PM, another Labor PM would be appointed).
As the current government includes a Green and several Independents who have pledged to vote for the government in such a motion, and as they would lose considerable power and influence with it, they are unlikely to support a Vote of No Confidence
2. A motion is passed in the HoR to Reduce Budget expenditure, probably by A$1 – if I remember the last time it was seriously threatened (1941 – in the end, the 2 Indies changed sides & Fadden’s Gov resigned) it was “by a shilling”, although “By a Farthing” was once acceptable.
As the Greens and Indies have stakes in the current Budget (inc Dental Health policy, NIDS, family benefits, lower tax thresholds) and in seeing the CP->ETS legislated, there is little chance of any such motion’s being passed.
The Opposition might win a few procedural motions before 1 July (and after), but it’s not going to win a vote on either of the above motions.
PS: Having a “mad eyes” days. Plz forgive errors and delayed responses.
by OzPol Tragic on May 24, 2012 at 8:43 am
Three or four weeks ago Jon Faine grilled her on elderly care. Her only suggestion, when pressed for policy, was that parents should be looked after by their kids. The looking to Asia solution, I think. Under a little bit of pressure herself, she was pathetic.
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 8:44 am
zoomster
Agreed. I worked in legal for years. I never signed any confidentiality clause, but We were not allowed to discuss clients with our friends or family whatsoever. I never forget that once my OH made a comment in front of one of the Solicitors which coincidentally related to a client. This was unbeknown to my OH. The Solicitor looked at me in horror. He thought I had been discussing it with my OH. I quickly told him that my OH was talking from his own experience with this person. Order was restored.
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:44 am
Finns
Perhaps the prostitute kept he blue dress?
by Diogenes on May 24, 2012 at 8:45 am
zoomster:
I know, I was pre-empting the usual suspects who like to pretend that our media doesn’t direct sexist and misogynistic commentary towards the PM.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:45 am
True zoomster, I just try and cut people a bit of slack for being human beings. It may very well be that her discussions were inappropriate. Whether that has effected the FWA investigation is another matter.
By the way, do you always have to be so reasonable and well argued? It makes it much harder to disagree!
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 8:46 am
OPT
Hope your mad eyes improve!!
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:46 am
oh dear Datsun? Lawsuits pile up over Facebook IPO – http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/lawsuits-pile-up-over-facebook-ipo-20120524-1z5yy.html – anyone who buys at P/E of 100 gets no sympathy from me. Suckers
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:47 am
OPT:
Thank you! Thinking in terms of sitting days is much more reasonable.
by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 8:48 am
victoria
I have married friends who are a lawyer and a physio.
The physio kindly gave me some treatment with my hip.
I passed on my thanks via her lawyer husband, who said that he hadn’t known a thing about it, because they never discuss clients, even when those clients are mutual friends.
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:49 am
OPT
Thank you for that. It is good to be reminded that for all his efforts Abbott has proven he is politically clueless.
If I had been the General overseeing tactics to change a government in Federal Parliaments circumstances I would be finding an issue to submit legislation to get the cross benches to vote with the opposition. Far more damaging as it would get actual votes to change instead of trying to change the numbers that are there.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 8:49 am
Maybe the issue was a bit too close to home for that interviewer to broach, zoomster.
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 8:49 am
ltep
sorry, I’ll try and put on the fluffy little bunny pesona next time!!
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:50 am
Diog, if hookers should give their services free to all the pollies and the charge the #MSM 10 times for the “show & tell” . Thomson was said to pay $6000 and now the said hooker gets $60,000:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/anonymous-prostitute-identifies-thomson-20120524-1z63o.html#ixzz1vjggpXfn
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 8:50 am
zoomster
As it should be. In the case of Kathy Jackson, she has a lot to answer for.
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 8:51 am
Janice – what is it people say here, has Jackson jumped the shark with her comment on 7.30???
Wonder how Lawler reacted to what she said if he was watching
“advice and assistance”
WOW
by womble on May 24, 2012 at 8:51 am
$60,000
She seriously should have gotten an agent. Screwed twice.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 8:51 am
That’s true as far as we know. But involvement in HSU politicking did occur according to Vexnews.
by Gorgeous Dunny on May 24, 2012 at 8:53 am
This is what happens when you have a nation ruled by the Murdoch media and its camp followers, all vying to outdo each other at their masters’ bidding.
Years ago a lonely bloke pays for some escort services, or doesn’t.
He uses the credit card the firm gave him for work purposes, or doesn’t.
For reasons which we can guess at but can’t be sure of, the old malignant ex-pat newspaper proprietor, already in trouble over disgusting practices, corruption, dirty tricks, decides to flex his muscles by dictating who will be the government in the country he left, decades ago, for money.
It’s always been his sandpit, and he likes to remind people of just who’s boss.
So let’s have a good old-fashioned sex scandal. The amounts involved are a fraction of the total alleged misappropriations, but using prostitutes always sells. The wowsers like to think they’d never pay someone for sex. They’ll be on side when the lynch mob is assembled.
He gets his chief sewer worker, a journalist already known for spreading lies and counterfeiting documents, to write up something about the Speaker of the house and a nice, young gay boy (doesn’t matter that he’s not particularly nice, or particularly young). Insurance: if one story doesn’t do the job, best to have a fallback position.
A rival mob have got some juice on a backbencher with the prostitute story. The old malignant one picks up on this yarn too, and combines both stories.
He calls in his hired hand, a crackpot nutcase politician who believes he’s on a mission from God, or something. He tells him what to do.
Like a starting gun, a simple tweet from New York – “… time for an election so we can have a fresh start” – inaugurates proceedings.
The parliament is tied in knots with journalists and conservative policitians vying with each other to outdo themselves for their master. The Budget of the nation is relegated to one side, as twinks, bears and Surry Hills sex workers move to centre stage.
His captive politicians ask for a 15 minute explanation. They get 60 minutes, but they’re still not satisfied. Whatever the poor dupe said he wasn’t going to be believed.
When you control belief, via your salacious rags, it’s easy to whip up the entire nation into believing whatever you want, for example that $5,700 spent years ago (or not spent, it really doesn’t matter), before the dupe was even in parliament is more important than the economy, the disabled, carbon abatement, tax thresholds tripled, a budgetary surplus that is the envy of the world, unemployment, interest rates or anything else… maybe even life itself.
A shock jock says that if the dupe kills himself he’ll have no sympathy for him, because it’s all his own fault. Dozens of callers phone in to agree. One disagrees and he’s hung up on, told he’s a moron.
Everyone has an opinion, or thinks they do. But, when you ask them what that opinion is, it can be directly traced to any one of a number of op-eds and “news” articles in a tight coterie of newspapers, tabloid TV programs and incendiary political speeches. The Old Man has the nation repeating whatever it is he thinks will get the job done.
Welcome to Rule By Media. This is what happens when organized crime takes over a town. Everything is corrupted, reduced to its constituent scandals. Anger, fear, hatred, outrage, frustration and envious righteousness as only wowsers can generate stalks the streets.
The Old Man’s hatchet people tell us that they are only giving the public what the public wants. Their readers and their viewers are paramount, always. The tabloids and their pet politicians act as if there’s a crisis. They tell us there’s a crisis, therefore there is a crisis, even if there isn’t really one at all.
And now, decades of tits and bums, grubby gossip mongering, tapping of private phone conversations, corruption of police, hounding of witnesses and critics, dodgy lobbyists, cronies, lurks and outright lying reaches maturity. They’ve found the prostitute!
She’s been paid $60,000, yet we are supposed to believe every word she says. An incidental casualty of this disgusting business will be that the sex work industry will take an almighty dive into recession as nervous husbands and prominents businessmen and politicians worry, with justification, about who will be next to be “exposed”.
This is what you get: filth, putrefaction, disease, decay, cheap sensationalism, maybe even with an exciting death by self harm to excite the punters into veer higher levels of nationwide ire.
It’s a race against time. Only a month or so to go until the public realizes the lies and the exaggerations for what they were. As the months go by, the new communications network that will put the old man’s antiquated pat TV network out of business rolls out. As carbon emissions have a price put on them the old, lazy industrialists will have to either change their ways or be replaced. The tobacco poisoners will see their sales dwindle. The polluters will have to cease raping the environment. None of this will be overnight, but it will be a start down a one-way street. The Old Man can’t have that.
In his eighties, he clings to fantasies of his kids inheriting the dreadful world he has created, not realizing that his time has past, as has the time of dynasties. He’s already lost the war, but won’t admit it. That’s why he’s still dangerous.
by Bushfire Bill on May 24, 2012 at 8:55 am
You don’t have to be personally involved in an investigation for your underlings to understand what you want out of it.
A bit like the way thousands of editors across the world take exactly the same stance on issues, even though Rupert doesn’t tell them what to do….
by zoomster on May 24, 2012 at 8:58 am
Zoomster, probably not an issue you wish to discuss but it was most strange to me that Ulhmann was quoted as saying, when he was asked to take on the 7.30 gig, he went to the Libs to check with them if they would have any concerns, given his wife was a budding Labor pollie.
And no need to check with Labor, apparently. I do not understand why he imagined that.
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 8:59 am
His tweet about needing an election so we could have a “fresh start” was the clarion call.
by Bushfire Bill on May 24, 2012 at 9:00 am
Does anyone know when the same sex marriage proposal is due to come before parliament?
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 am
BB
You outline the situation perfectly. I think this is why those of us with stakes in the government staying the course should be pulling together and not sniping at each other. No leadership sniping. No the Greens are evil bastards for stealing labor’s credit lines. No Wilkie and Xenophon are grandstanding. Leave that for the election campaign. For now all Australians of good will have an abiding interest in this government surviving. Even the climate denialists should join with us for a time to defeat the Media rule.
Without accurate factual information what chance do votes have to make an informed vote?’
I contend none. This is why I think it is vital to destroy this media campaigning. No media should be doing campaigns. Media should be reporting. The fact that media people think they can run campaigns is an inditement on their role in our democracy.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 9:05 am
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:06 am
The Greens proposal for death duties would be a good way to deal with the inequity of wealth and opportunity in Australia.
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:07 am
guytaur
Concur with your sentiments. The msm is running a campaign. Precisely what the PM meant when she said a line had been crossed
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:09 am
Morning all
There is an interesting article by Mr Bernard Salt in today’s ‘The Australian’ headed, ‘The inexorable rise of the opinionated boomer retiree.’
Naturally, moi came to mind, and from thence it was a short step to many of the other denizens of Poll Bludger.
I posted a little while ago that I thought the Budget failed to address the structural issues, one of which is the Australian age pyramid.
The figures Mr Salt provides are compelling. Currently the Australian economy absorbs around 50,000 retirees a year. In 2015 it will be 124,000 a year. By 2027 it will 140,000 a year. These people will stop paying taxes, stop working, stop applying a costly set of skills and they will start using pensions and increase their use of the health and retirement systems generally at the same time. We all knew that, sort of.
Then Mr Salt provides an additional suggestion which I rather enjoyed.
The boomers will be ariticulate, etc, etc, etc.
‘What better ‘sport’ to while away the slow hours of retirement by a generation used to being in the spotlight than objecting to property development projects? Or if the frontline of protest isn’t to a retired boomer’s liking there’s always the option of an email or blog campaign directed against a perceived injustice by a big institution.’
It is just as well that Crikey got is gerbils in hand so that it has a sound platform for its growing base of opinionated boomers with nothing better to do than post away their few remaining years of first you’re born and then you die.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 9:11 am
Well, being the suspicious person that I am, do wonder under the veil of anonimity if this person is a prostitute or a ruse.
It could be anyone. Claim you have paid them for the story to make it more plausible.
Let’s face it, these shows have form.
Now on Lawler!
A point that no-one has touched on much.
How did he get access to a union members personal emails?
How did he also get information on the union members cheque(Carol) which then prompted her to make a public statement.
If there was no interference, how come it was Lawler who instigated the HSU strikeforce?
by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 9:11 am
Vic, you want MOAR, we give you MOAR
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 9:12 am
another question that should be asked of FWA – what “advice and assistance” if any, did Lawler provide Jackson in responding to the investigators questions of her???
only problem is – would Labor asking these questions just raise accusations of them trying to play politics with an independent body so it goes no where is my guess
anyways, off to work – have a great day all
by womble on May 24, 2012 at 9:13 am
I’m beginning to understand how a nation of intelligent, resourceful and generally compassionate people once came to embrace a ruthless, murderous dictator.
If misunderstandings and outright lies are proclaimed long enough and loudly enough, many people will eventually start to believe them.
A close relative, on a pension, is worried about how much carbon tax she will have to pay.
Also, she has received the government assistance payment but is worried that she may have to pay it back some time.
How many others have been conditioned to have similar worries?
by citizen on May 24, 2012 at 9:14 am
Yep. My fortnightly pension is looking better this week. Ta all ALP, Indies Greens concerned.
Helps pay my outrageous water bill: Water Access Charge per 6 months – $294.00 ($588 pa); actual water used 52kls @ $2.10 per kl. That’s for a 2 person household that hasn’t used a garden hose since 2005, and is most wowserish with water. Image the cost to families!
BTW the Mayor who, having Fa*ted around wasting enormous sums of money for more than a year, trying to “outsmart” Anna Bligh, pulled this atrocity (and had the hide to blame Bligh for it), was a Liberal. Ingloriously rolled at the recent poll, he was replaced by another Liberal. And 2 Liberals romped into the Council Area seats.
Some people never learn.
by OzPol Tragic on May 24, 2012 at 9:14 am
The finns
Good grief!! That is not the sort of going down I am interested in for Abbott. I want him to go down, as in gone…………!!!!!!
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:14 am
The Finns
Tell gussie I am interested in a different moar. Pyne is still yapping away in the HOR.
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:16 am
A few years ago there was some sort of case in, I believe, Australia, involving something to do with brothels and sex industry workers. The Defence waved around a black plastic garbage bag from said institution. I sort of remember they wanted the contents to be used to make some legal point or other. I assume that the contents had matured somewhat in the time between the incidents and the court case. Anyway, the magistrate rather resisted the whole idea and was inclined to take defence’s view of what was in the plastic bag as said.
In this case, I believe that the sex industry worker story needs a bit of forensic support.
I suggest that a suitable benchmark would be the condom with contents, DNA’ed.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 9:18 am
boerwar
Why in dog’s name, would a hooker hang on to a used condom from 7 years ago?
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 am
Boerwar
I cannot believe you said that. Exactly what my OH said making me recoil in horror.
by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 9:20 am
finns
Due dilgence by F,B,F&Co on the Facebook IPO took one nanosecond and we came up with uh, uh. As you say, p/e of 100 was always going to be invest in hope, repent at leisure.
Looks like someone may have plucked the woodies good and proper.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 9:20 am
Oh look, just a few fib donations were mislaid. Might not have been so smart to give the Electoral Commissioner a hard time in estimates, Connie and Erica.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-uncover-200000-donations-20120523-1z5lc.html
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 9:22 am
v
If she happened to have a hoarding syndrome?
There was a lass I knew once (not in the biblical sense, I hasten to add) who had her trophy condoms tacked to the wall. At the rate she was going she would have run out of wall space long ago. But I think that may be a different story entirely.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 9:22 am
It only costs $18K to maintain a monolopoly on airports in Sydney
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-uncover-200000-donations-20120523-1z5lc.html
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 9:24 am
Victoria
Rhinehart earned $56 million per day last year. Her wealth trebled
And in Tasmania they’re complaining that the cost of workers compensation for mental illness increased $100K per week last year.
That’s how it works in egalitarian Australia.
by psyclaw on May 24, 2012 at 9:24 am
The amount of abuse and pressure currently being heaped on Mr Thomson by the opposition and the media is becoming intolerable.
We know he is just a pawn in a much bigger game but are there any individuals of integrity in the opposition or the media who are prepared to stand up and say “enough is enough”?
by citizen on May 24, 2012 at 9:24 am